LA Times article: "German automakers who once laughed off Elon Musk are now starting to worry"

[Grendal]

Making 10K to 50K cars is not competing with Tesla. As an example, the Bolt is no threat to Tesla. It takes a serious commitment from a major automaker to make a competitive vehicle. I think Tesla has past 2020 before someone really decides to make a serious commitment other than making city cars (Bolt, i3, and Leaf) or a limited edition (10K to 50K production) car. It will be the batteries and the Supercharger network that give Tesla the advantage in the market for years to come.

 

[R3D-83]

I don't even need to read the article to say that this is ridiculous! I really would like see more EVs on the roads, but the fact is the German car makers are living their renaissance. E.g. MB could increase its sales with more than 54k cars only in Q1(2016). It's more than Tesla's entire last year sale.

2016 (Q1) German Luxury Car Sales Worldwide and in China

Do you still think that "German automakers are starting to worry"? I don't think so. I'll bet this article is paid and/or the author is an exalted EV enthusiast. Sadly, the gap is just increasing between Tesla and the Germans, and it means that electric 7 series is still very far from now. :-(

 

[Gerasimental]

VW are developing a Modular Electric platform- similar to how they developed the MQB platform, on which all the group's transverse enginged, small-to-mid sized cars are built, or the MLB which serves as the basis for all the longitudinal-engined mid-to-large size cars.
The fact that they are developing a third modular platform tells me they are serious here. A new modular platform only makes sense if they are planning volume and breadth.

I work in the industry and there are several other manufacturers who are serious about serious EVs. Some that you might expect and names that are mentioned here often, others that will raise some eyebrows.

I can't say how they feel about Tesla (although Tesla technology is widely used as a benchmark - and not just in batteries. The tech lead is real.), but at least a good few are certainly well aware of the impact of electric.

 

[dauger]

the fact that apple a computer/phone maker with 0 experience with 4 wheels can and will build an ev in 3 years

"The fact"? Show us proof. A press release? An on-the-record confirmation?

I'm long AAPL and TSLA, so I'd like to see Apple enter the car market, and I know the Apple rumor-mill well, but we really shouldn't blur rumors with facts.

Btw my S replaced my previous daily driver, a 2001 BMW M3:

Tesla Model S - Gas Free

So I'm an example of why the Germans should be worried.

 

[lklundin]

Do you still think that "German automakers are starting to worry"? I don't think so.

While you are entitled to your own, personal opinion, I would like to point out that it was widely reported by the media also in Germany that in the USA in the last quarter of 2015, Tesla Motors' Model S outsold all significant luxury models - and those are the ones that have both the highest profit margins and the most signal value.

So I beg to differ.

 

[dauger]

in the USA, Tesla Motors' Model S outsold all significant luxury models

Further to that, Model S did the same feat in Europe:

Tesla Model S, The Biggest Selling Luxury Car In Europe

hitting the Germans closer to home. I think the Germans are correct to be worried.

 

[McRat]

In my mind, Tesla also has a huge advantage with the supercharger network. Other automakers introducing longer range EVs are still just providing the vehicle and looking at someone else to provide the fast charging network. A 200 mile range EV isn't much better than an 80 mile range EV if there is no way to really take it on the road.

Most people don't drive interstate, they fly. ICE drivers do not want to hear about geographic limitations of an expensive car. The SC/DCFC debate probably hurts EV adoption more than it helps. When there is finally 100% coverage and EV repair centers at all cities, we will still need to fix the 30 minute charge times before telling ICE buyers that interstate travel is just as good in an EV.

Even with 5 minute recharges and 100% coverage, you still can't get the Pickup/Real SUV market. (Real SUV = Pickup frame, large station wagon on top). Towing 8000 lb over country roads in an EV would trash it's range, and nobody is making one that handles unimproved roads as good as ICE offerings. In fact, some companies are deliberately making it so they cannot handle anything but well maintained pavement. 35 profile tires can't do potholes, especially with no spares or ground clearance.

Concerning the 215 miles being no better than 80? Not true for urban cars, that is cars that do not travel far from home.
80-85 mph speeds, heavy passenger loads, hilly terrain, cold weather, large wheels, headwinds, all conspire to reduce EV range. Figure a 33% loss. So your 100 mile EV, allowing a 10% safety factor, allows a 30 mile errand range for the family in the winter. That is not even enough for Southern California, the largest market for EVs.

I think SuperChargers/DCFC are great for EV owners. I do not think promoting them to ICE drivers as a feature is wise however. You are advertising that EVs are a supposedly PITA when compared to ICE cars, when in fact for >90% of ICE drivers EV remote location fast charging is a non-issue. The truth is nearly all charging is done at home or work or destinations, not remote highway sites.

 

[stopcrazypp]

You made a similar suggestion in another thread and I disagree with this. A car with a robust supercharger / DC charger network is simply far more practical than one that doesn't. It is naive to think not mentioning DC charging will mean most ICE drivers won't bring up the charging network. Where to charge is the first thing they usually bring up.

Building a robust network and pushing for faster charging is the way to get EVs in the mainstream, not ignoring the problem and hoping no one notices.

 

[R3D-83]

While you are entitled to your own, personal opinion, I would like to point out that it was widely reported by the media also in Germany that in the USA in the last quarter of 2015, Tesla Motors' Model S outsold all significant luxury models - and those are the ones that have both the highest profit margins and the most signal value.

So I beg to differ.

As I said in this other thread, this is not my opinion, these are just bare facts based on sale numbers. And you're true, in the USA Tesla truly outsold them. But it's not a big surprise since Tesla is an American company and it can be cheaper than the German brands. But USA isn't the entire world. On the rest of the world the German 3 grow faster than Tesla. Neither, it's not a surprise, since in Europe a Model S is way more expensive than a 7 series, S klasse, etc. And for the same reason, the Europeans (specially the Germans) are more loyal to the local brands.

And again: this is not my opinion!!!! But these are the raw, unquestionable market numbers. Believe me, I would be the happiest if it wasn't the situation, because it just slows down the transition to the EVs, and after a couple of years I would like to see a bigger assortment on the premium EV market. But the sad truth is that the people outside of our peaceful electric world do not want to buy EVs. They still prefer ICE cars and hybrids (actually globally the hybrid sales grow faster than EV sales).

 

[youlikeadajuice]

Most people don't drive interstate, they fly. ICE drivers do not want to hear about geographic limitations of an expensive car. The SC/DCFC debate probably hurts EV adoption more than it helps. When there is finally 100% coverage and EV repair centers at all cities, we will still need to fix the 30 minute charge times before telling ICE buyers that interstate travel is just as good in an EV.

Even with 5 minute recharges and 100% coverage, you still can't get the Pickup/Real SUV market. (Real SUV = Pickup frame, large station wagon on top). Towing 8000 lb over country roads in an EV would trash it's range, and nobody is making one that handles unimproved roads as good as ICE offerings. In fact, some companies are deliberately making it so they cannot handle anything but well maintained pavement. 35 profile tires can't do potholes, especially with no spares or ground clearance.

Concerning the 215 miles being no better than 80? Not true for urban cars, that is cars that do not travel far from home.
80-85 mph speeds, heavy passenger loads, hilly terrain, cold weather, large wheels, headwinds, all conspire to reduce EV range. Figure a 33% loss. So your 100 mile EV, allowing a 10% safety factor, allows a 30 mile errand range for the family in the winter. That is not even enough for Southern California, the largest market for EVs.

I think SuperChargers/DCFC are great for EV owners. I do not think promoting them to ICE drivers as a feature is wise however. You are advertising that EVs are a supposedly PITA when compared to ICE cars, when in fact for >90% of ICE drivers EV remote location fast charging is a non-issue. The truth is nearly all charging is done at home or work or destinations, not remote highway sites.

While I agree with portions of your argument, I have to respectfully disagree overall. The (albeit misguided) argument that you can't take an EV on a road trip is one of the most predominant arguments that arise against the large scale adoption of EVs. Promoting a robust fast charging network is not an advertisement of any sort of limitation, it is the removal of another excuse. A potential customer is going to be more than aware of charging issues, so promoting a fast charging network is not going to bring to light anything they weren't aware of, but will alleviate some of their potential concern. I agree that the bulk of driving is done from home where regular charging can occur, and waking up to a full charge every morning is one of my favorite things about owning an EV (perhaps EV manufacturers should promote this fact more), but the supercharger network is part of what drew me to Tesla.

I also agree that for certain people, having more range will enable greater adoption for urban drivers, but that is an obvious statement . The more range an EV has, the more people who will be able to use it, especially for urban uses. However, my point was that for longer trips, 200 miles of range vs 80 is not much of a difference if you don't provide a way to recharge quickly and efficiently. Tesla is providing a great way of doing that, and I believe it is one of it's great selling points.

 

[McRat]

As I said in this other thread, this is not my opinion, these are just bare facts based on sale numbers. And you're true, in the USA Tesla truly outsold them. But it's not a big surprise since Tesla is an American company and it can be cheaper than the German brands. But USA isn't the entire world. On the rest of the world the German 3 grow faster than Tesla. Neither, it's not a surprise, since in Europe a Model S is way more expensive than a 7 series, S klasse, etc. And for the same reason, the Europeans (specially the Germans) are more loyal to the local brands.


And again: this is not my opinion!!!! But these are the raw, unquestionable market numbers. Believe me, I would be the happiest if it wasn't the situation, because it just slows down the transition to the EVs, and after a couple of years I would like to see a bigger assortment on the premium EV market. But the sad truth is that the people outside of our peaceful electric world do not want to buy EVs. They still prefer ICE cars and hybrids (actually globally the hybrid sales grow faster than EV sales).

You are probably aware a BMW or MB or Audi is not more expensive than comparable US cars in America.

The entry level sedans from BMW, Audi, Mercedes, and Cadillac, are $33k, $31K, $33k, $33k respectively.

While it MIGHT be loyalty, one of the reasons American car companies struggle with international sales is tariffs and restrictions.

The Chevrolet Volt sells fairly well as a hybrid in the US, but does tragically bad in Europe. Why?

The base 2013 Volt MSRP was $37k in the US. In Germany the same Opel Ampera was 46,300 euros the same year before they had to dump them and stop sales. That was over $60k USD for the exact same car.

Other than my KTMs I will not buy Euro products until there is parity in export pricing.

 

[RobStark]

On the rest of the world the German 3 grow faster than Tesla.

This is absolutely positively not true.

The only place the Germans outgrew Tesla is in China.

In Q1 2016 Tesla dramatically increased growth in China.

Likely will out perform the Germans now that it has Model X.

 

[R3D-83]

You are probably aware a BMW or MB or Audi is not more expensive than comparable US cars in America.

OK, but we were comparing Tesla's (Model S) prices to the Germans. So let's compare it to the 7 series, not to the entry models.

Model S US base price: $71.5k
7 series US base price: $81.3k
Even the 6 series is more expensive: $77.3k

Model S EU (Germany) base price: €82.7k ($92,8k)
7 series EU (Germany) base price: €82.6k ($92.7k)
6 series EU (Germany) base price: €79.7k ($89.4k)
(The EU prices are meant with 19% German VAT, which is about the EU average.)

And it gets more interesting, if you choose some extras.

Maxed-out Model S: €166.6k ($187.0k)
"Maxed-out" 7 series: €160.2k ($179.8k)

For the Model S I chose all available extras. For the BMW I chose the 750i xDrive M-Sport with Interior Design Pure Excellence package as base model, then I picked all available extras. With the Individual package it can be way more expensive, but it's a very special package. It's price cannot be determined, since it offers features like custom needlework on various parts of the interior. Only a dealerships could give you exact price on a concrete idea and configuration. Anyway... this configuration has dozens of features that're not even available for the Model S. If you pick a 7 series with a similar options (apart from the insane acceleration) like a maxed-out Model S, it would be "only" €110-120k in the EU.

Now add the loyalty to the Model S in the USA, and to the German (and basically all European) brands in the EU, and you can realize why all brands perform much better on their homeland than their competitors.

This is absolutely positively not true.

The only place the Germans outgrew Tesla is in China.

In Q1 2016 Tesla dramatically increased growth in China.

Likely will out perform the Germans now that it has Model X.

I let you convince me, if you give some exact data that proves your statement. But to save time, I do it instead of you.

According to Wikipedia, the Tesla's global sales are the following:
Q1/2015 : 10,045 (without Model X)
Q1/2016 : 12,420 (with Model X)
2375 cars (23.6%) growth with a new model.

Mercedes' global sales (data comes from the post that I've already linked earlier):
Q1/2015 : 429,384
Q1/2016 : 483,487
54103 cars (12.6%) growth.

Or BMW's global sales:
Q1/2015 : 451,644
Q1/2016 : 478,743
27099 cars (6%) growth.

And so on... If you compare the percentage values, it seems the Tesla grow faster but this not the truth. Just have a look at the quantities. Obviously the is gap is increasing between them. While Tesla adds X number of cars to its sales, the others add 10-20 times more.

And again: I'm not trolling here, just trying to be realist. I know this is the future, and I'm waiting for it, but this is not gonna happen in a few years as the super-optimists think. Anyway, here's what I think about the current situation of the entire EV market (not just Tesla).

 

[McRat]

...
Now add the loyalty to the Model S in the USA, and to the German (and basically all European) brands in the EU, and you can realize why all brands perform much better on their homeland than their competitors....

Tesla is unique in the world, and especially in the US.

There is a cultural thing in the US that might not exist in Europe. I personally did not see it in Italy, France, England, Spain, or Portugal:

There are a large group of Americans that refuse to be seen in an American car. American cars are considered vulgar antiques that indicate you are a failure in life.

Tesla so far is exempt, perhaps because most their buyers come from imports, not domestic cars.

Are German, Italian, or Japanese cars are looked down upon in Europe like American cars are looked down upon in the US?

Sidebar - Comedy happens with motorcycles. Apparently Harley Davidsons are considered to be fashionable in Europe. Those are some seriously crappy motorcycles. Pathetic. They actually ARE vulgar antiques. Foul handling, weak brakes, poor acceleration, etc. Europeans will pay a premium for them though.

 

[ggr]

OK, but we were comparing Tesla's (Model S) prices to the Germans. So let's compare it to the 7 series, not to the entry models.

Model S US base price: $71.5k
7 series US base price: $81.3k
Even the 6 series is more expensive: $77.3k

Model S EU (Germany) base price: €82.7k ($92,8k)
7 series EU (Germany) base price: €82.6k ($92.7k)
6 series EU (Germany) base price: €79.7k ($89.4k)
(The EU prices are meant with 19% German VAT, which is about the EU average.)

And it gets more interesting, if you choose some extras.

Maxed-out Model S: €166.6k ($187.0k)
"Maxed-out" 7 series: €160.2k ($179.8k)

For the Model S I chose all available extras. For the BMW I chose the 750i xDrive M-Sport with Interior Design Pure Excellence package as base model, then I picked all available extras. With the Individual package it can be way more expensive, but it's a very special package. It's price cannot be determined, since it offers features like custom needlework on various parts of the interior. Only a dealerships could give you exact price on a concrete idea and configuration. Anyway... this configuration has dozens of features that're not even available for the Model S. If you pick a 7 series with a similar options (apart from the insane acceleration) like a maxed-out Model S, it would be "only" €110-120k in the EU.

Now add the loyalty to the Model S in the USA, and to the German (and basically all European) brands in the EU, and you can realize why all brands perform much better on their homeland than their competitors.



I let you convince me, if you give some exact data that proves your statement. But to save time, I do it instead of you.

According to Wikipedia, the Tesla's global sales are the following:
Q1/2015 : 10,045 (without Model X)
Q1/2016 : 12,420 (with Model X)
2375 cars (23.6%) growth with a new model.

Mercedes' global sales (data comes from the post that I've already linked earlier):
Q1/2015 : 429,384
Q1/2016 : 483,487
54103 cars (12.6%) growth.

Or BMW's global sales:
Q1/2015 : 451,644
Q1/2016 : 478,743
27099 cars (6%) growth.

And so on... If you compare the percentage values, it seems the Tesla grow faster but this not the truth. Just have a look at the quantities. Obviously the is gap is increasing between them. While Tesla adds X number of cars to its sales, the others add 10-20 times more.

And again: I'm not trolling here, just trying to be realist. I know this is the future, and I'm waiting for it, but this is not gonna happen in a few years as the super-optimists think. Anyway, here's what I think about the current situation of the entire EV market (not just Tesla).

So, you are again comparing apples and oranges to lead to an unjustifiable conclusion. The article about worldwide sales for BMW and Mercedes that you quote from:

2016 (Q1) German Luxury Car Sales Worldwide and in China

, says for example that "The BMW figures include worldwide sales of Mini". And 1,3,4 and 5 series. So in the first part of your last post, you are comparing prices for the Model-S comparable cars only, but then quoting growth figures for the entire brands. As others have shown, the Model S is indeed eating into sales of the comparable cars.