There is no doubt great cars come out of Germany, I was stating a fact (tongue in cheek). The day the electric BWM 3 series is out, Germany will not have a reason to worry... That day is coming bc Tesla is open source and pioneering the movement. I think the odds are other manufacturers will still try to downplay and belittle Tesla's progress for their own short term gain.
The day will come, for sure, but I don't think they want to use Tesla's technology. Instead they're working on their on solutions.
Why is Germany worried? Japan should be more worried. I've never understood all the Audi/BMW talk in context of the 3. The number one former car of Model 3 owners..... the Prius, number two, the Leaf, and I bet Subaru will be in the mix also.
A BMW has never been a practical or environmental decision, and the 3 offers so much of both, as do/did many Japanese cars.
I'm not arguing that Tesla will steal some customers from the German premium brands with the Model 3, but I don't think this is gonna be many. The people who have always bought these cars don't really care much about things like efficiency and so. I mean they do a little bit, but these things are not the main reasons in their decision-making process. Tesla maybe takes a couple of 10-thousands of customers per brand, but while they can grow with 150-200 thousands sales per year, they won't feel much from the Model 3. IMO the cheaper sub-brands of GM and VW will suffer the most from the Model 3.
Have to disagree with your comments. Yes, the Germany big 3 can easily produce additional 50k cars in one quarter. BUT this is for ICE cars that you are talking about. You didn't even consider where the heck the German get the entire EV supplier chain, logistic chain from. Where did they get the battery and electric motor up to that volume?? It takes a lot of time to ramp up an entire EV manufacturing and logistic chain that only exists in very small scale currently in Germany. It is very different from ramping up existing ICE manufacturing chain.
IMO they count on a slow and continuous increase in demand (and it seems to be true by now). And don't forget they've already invested billions of € into EV developments. MB and Porsche is even going to build a new factory for future EV models, and they already have numbers of factories all around the world. As the demand shifts from ICE to EVs, it's much easier to change the production in existing plants.
Let alone German are just starting to get into the beginning of R&D and design phase for a EV that can compete with Tesla. They are not anywhere even close to the manufacturing phase yet. It will be at least in 2018 before we will see anything from German that can compete with Model S or Model X, which would make it 6 years behind Tesla first produce a Model S. That's extremely late in any industry in this fast changing technology world.
No, they're not just starting the R&D!
I mean I can't speak in the name of other brands, but since I've been a BMW fan for a long time, a know it's history a little bit. And I can tell you that the first electric BMW prototype was made back in 1959. They have been researching alternative drive modes for more than 50 years. And at the moment BMW has the most advanced electric motor technology, BTW.
I don't say that everybody has been so diligent in the recent years, there're late risers (I think Porsche is one of them), but the majors are aware of the future for a long time.
Currently, the few noticeable EVs from Germany are VW Golf EV, BMW i3, and Mercedes B class EV. All these are just "compliance" cars so that the manufacturers can barely go above the regulation requirements. Please don't tell me these cars already compete with Tesla because they are not even close. The main reason that the German still doesn't have a EV that compete with Tesla yet is because they believe there would be very low demand for EV based on the sales they see from their own "compliance" EVs. They believe it is a complete waste of time and money to make a EV with good range and technology. It is because of such conclusion that lead them into the situation now. Model S and X have proven the German are wrong. And with the massive reservation of Model 3, it should be a huge wake up call for Germany.
Neither, I don't think that these EVs are competitors for Tesla. These are just study cars and their main goal is to help the company to pass the CO2 emission regulations. But I don't think they made their decisions based on their own sales only. They are not that stupid!
The entire EV market was roughly 100-150k cars last year. Some of these carmakers growth was even bigger! If they could split the entire EV market among each other, it wasn't a big deal for them. And that's the point! That's why they don't feel that urge to get seriously in the EV market. If once Tesla will reach the 500k car per year, that is something and it's gonna be a big milestone in the company's history. But it's still years away, and for these, it was only a weak quarter.
I do find it extremely ironic that the German is one the world leaders in sustainable energy tech such as solar panel, wind turbine, battery storage etc. And given the extreme environmental awareness in both the government and public levels, the German should be a leader in EV cars as well. But yet, the German manufacturers seems to be totally going against the environmental tide.
It has nothing to do with the car companies. It is the people all around the world. If the people would like to buy more EVs than carmakers would make more. That's it. But nowadays (sadly!!!) 99 people out of 100 would buy an ICE car instead of an EV.
Anyway... I don't want to make predictions of any carmarker's future, and specially I don't want to compete them. My first comment was only about that stupid LA Times article because in the light of the real sale numbers it's easy to see what the CURRENT situation is. But what the future will bring is a mystery for all of us. I hope Tesla's success will urge the giants to get in the game!
