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That makes my hope of P2840 at the end of November look slim :(

My original theory was ~1500 sigs/founders/roadster owners, then of the P2839 in front of me maybe 30% defer for a 40kwh or 60kwh battery, which would put me around #3500 produced. With a full run rate of 20k a year in Dec that's 1600+ in Dec. So, 5000 - 1600 = 3400 produced before December. Hence, I was hoping for a Thanksgiving-ish car...

This has been discussed in other threads, but in order for Tesla to deliver 5000 cars this year they will have to start general production deliveries before November. October for a sign could mean early October, or they could delight Sig owners and get some of them a month early. I know they are preparing people for a very slow ramp up of production, but if they go too slow they'll miss their target of 5000 cars this year.
 
I don't know how true this is, as different Tesla employees seem to have different answers for the same questions, but one employee I talked to confirmed that all of the 2012 5k unit run will have the 85kwh pack. This means that those who would like one of the smaller packs, have to wait until the 2013 MY.