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Let's dispell some wrong assumptions about Model 3

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by farzyness, Feb 8, 2017.

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  1. farzyness

    farzyness Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?

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    I want to preface by saying that I do not think that the Model 3 is going to be a bad car - on the contrary, I think it's going to be BY FAR the best bang for your buck for a $35k car.

    However, I've encountered a fair bit of assumptions that members are making for Model 3 - ranging all the way from price to quality of the car. It's important to remember that Tesla is not making a follow-up to the Model S, but are instead releasing a car that's on an entirely different platform that has price as its most sensitive variable (i.e. a $35k EV for the masses).

    Based on that, let's dispel some of the more common assumptions:

    - The interior quality of the Model 3 will be worse than the Model S in all trims - there will be much more plastics and cheaper trims across the cabin
    - The interior sound proofing of the Model 3 will be worse than the Model S
    - The Model 3 will be a slower car than the Model S
    - The Model 3 will cost significantly more as you option the car up - a 70D with AP and Self Driving will be no less than $55k
    - The Model 3 will have less comfortable seats than the Model S
    - The Model 3 will have less features available than the Model S - i.e. don't expect to get self-opening doors, alcantera everything, etc.
    - The Model 3 will have less leg room in both the front and back seats than the Model 3 (headroom might actually be better in the Model 3 vs. the Model S due to the sloping roofline of the S)

    Those that haven't been in a Model S, I strongly recommend you stop by a store and get super familiar with the Model S interior and take it on a test drive. I would strongly encourage to get familiar with its quality, sound proofing, and all other things with the car, and substantially lower your expectations for the Model 3.
     
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  2. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

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    Substantially lower my expectations? How then will the Model 3 compare with it's competition? BMW3 series?

    The MS isn't the M3's competition.
     
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  3. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    The 3 will likely have less rear seat legroom than the S.

    IMO, the rest of the items on your list are purely guesswork and at least as likely to be wrong as right.
     
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  4. jgillispie

    jgillispie Member

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    I agree with the gist of your statement. People(for the most part) are expecting way more from a 35k car than is reasonable. Not just the base but the option guessing gets out of control.. At the speed they want to produce these, I think you wont see as many or the same options as are available on the S and X.
     
  5. scaesare

    scaesare Well-Known Member

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    This is a weird post... It seems to contradict itself several times.
     
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  6. arnis

    arnis Member

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    I expect Model 3 will come with some customization. Let's forget outside/inside colors and wheels.
    We all have a hunch/information that Model 3 will be a BMW 3-series sedan sized vehicle for the same customer class.
    I know a lot about 3-series and I can bring some estimations from there (what that price range customers expect).
    Due to production optimization Model 3 will not offer nearly as much different options as BMW offers
    Model 3 will be RWD as standard, AWD offered as an option that will greatly increase performance.
    Most likely one small motor design for the front axle and two designs for the rear, smaller same as front (different reduction gear)
    It will have spring suspension, air suspension most likely will not be an option. Adjustable dampers might be an option.
    As a Tesla, it will definitely have hardware for autopilot as standard. This is much more than 3-series offers as standard,
    as it most likely will have a radar (expensive part) and all-around parking sensors (medium price option for BMW).
    I don't think that hardware for autonomous capabilities will be on every Model 3. But retrofit might be possible later on (wiring harness ready).
    Will have navigation and Heads-Up display as standard, expensive options for BMW-s. Also rear camera as standard.
    It will not have powered lift-gate in the back. And no self-actuated doors nor soft close functionality.
    Model 3 will not be offered with leather interior as standard. Steering wheel might be if they can't find a good synthetic alternative.
    Model 3 will have climate control, most likely dual zone with no option to to extend that. Dual zone as only for temperature selection.
    Model 3 will not come standard with electric seats nor electrically adjustable steering column. That will most likely be a
    "premium interior" option. But seat ventilation will most likely not be offered, maybe only perforation for leather option.
    Model 3 should come with standard heated front seats. Winter package should extend that to rear+steering+wipers+nozzles.
    Model 3 most likely will offer better sound system as an option (similar to Model S/X, but not as powerful).
    Model 3 will not have self-dimming mirrors as standard. Might be premium interior feature, not standalone.
    Most likely will not have a sunroof that can be opened. This adds too much complexity and weight with minimal gains.
    Model 3 will not offer bioweapon defense mode. Just an excellent micro-filter and automatic recirculation mode will be enough.
    Model 3 will be offered with a towing hook rated to tow medium sized trailers (class 2 in US). Not sure will that be an option for RWD base model.


    There are some other things I can not predict: standard charger, will it be 6kW or 10kW capable in US? In Europe,
    will it be one phase 32A (6kW) or three phase 16A (11kW Model S/X standard). Due to different situations in different countries, both versions might be offered. Or as a cost cutting measure maybe they use S/X standard charger. Depends how much cheaper 6kW charger is.

    Does Tesla consider electrically heated windshield in winter package? Do they consider heat pump functionality in that same package?
    Do they consider real (thermally insulating) shade for glass roof (one of the worst design flaws for hot and cold climates, exaggerates climate consumption).
    Will it come with the same plug in EU as Model S/X or they extend it to also support CCS plug. Will the passenger side tail light contain CCS plug in US?

    How many main models will they have in 2017? Small battery RWD; Small battery AWD; Big battery AWD; Big battery PAWD is my guess. This will mean 4 distinguishable performance levels with only 2 pack designs and 2 motor designs.
    I expect 250km/h / 155mph will only be supported with bigger battery versions. Even though Small AWD and Big AWD should have four identical motors big pack should max those both out while small pack will limit combined power in ideal traction scenarios and will not be capable to support 250km/h. PAWD model acceleration will be limited by pack. Small RWD model will definitely be limited by the motor, not pack.

    Small RWD will be near 330i or 330d performance.
    Small AWD will be quicker than 330i xDrive
    Big AWD will be near 340i xDrive or 335d xDrive performance
    Big PAWD will be quicker than M3 (4.1s 0-100km/h).
    I expect Model 3 performance model (in 2017) to be around 3-sec 0-100 vehicle.
    I expect (and hope) Model 3 body will be made from steel, attachable parts can be aluminum, at least some.
    I assume around 55kWh for small battery and 25-35% more for the big battery, so 70-75kWh in 2017. 75kWh pack will not give out as much juice as 85/90/100 S/X, rather like 75kWh pack on S/X (300kW/400hp) but with less curb weight that translates into faster acceleration than Model S75D.
    Will Tesla Model 3 fit 17" alloy wheels for RWD and non-P AWD models? Because if they don't that will be a problem.
    I'm sure that due to heavy battery they will not be able to offer 16".

    Ok, enough for one post.
    One more thing: I wouldn't be surprised if in future we will call those cars 355, 355D, 370D, 3P70D. Almost like R2D2:p
     
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  7. EXOTIC1

    EXOTIC1 Member

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    I'm not a fan of the MS interior overall. The m3 interior is the least of my concerns:)
    A fully loaded model 3 in Pearl White with the all White interior will make the wifey happy!
     
  8. JSkrehot

    JSkrehot Member

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    Sounds like a annoyed S owner that sees a very similar car coming for much less $. Will the sound be a little louder, maybe, but most likely better than any competition, so still excellent. You've got no idea on seat options, probably the same as S. Who cares about a door that opens itself, my 5 year old opens and closes his own, HUGE WASTE OF $$!
     
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  9. farzyness

    farzyness Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?

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    You couldn't be more incorrect :)
     
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  10. jgillispie

    jgillispie Member

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    That's the point I think the OP is trying to make. Do you not see how unreasonable that sounds? People expecting an S for about half the price?
     
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  11. Bangor Bob

    Bangor Bob Member

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    Let's attack that from a different direction.

    Why does an S cost what it does? What drives the price?

    One of the reasons the Model S costs what it does, is that the engineering and production tooling costs are amortized over a fairly small number of units.

    Another reason is margins. There's more enough margin in a P100D to buy a base Model 3. Maybe a mildly optioned one.

    Another reason is short production runs on some major components: We've had 4? different seats, spread over 100k cars? And probably a 5th on the way? 14 or 15 different revisions of the rear drive unit? And the infamous "two dozen engineering changes a week." What does that do to documentation costs? Supply chain costs? Warranty and service costs? Staff training costs?

    The Model 3 is a volume model. Throw out almost everything you know about the S, many of the Model S cost drivers are not going to apply to the Model 3. Parts content is going to be stable over many more units. Tooling will be amortized over many more units. Staff training, etc., etc., etc... And that's before Alien Dreadnoughts 1.0 and 2.0...

    Many of the actual features like sound damping are dirt cheap. Likewise, adding performance is dirt cheap. This isn't like spinning up a whole separate factory to make V8 engines vs. a base 4-cylinder engine. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if there was one drive unit, interchangeable front/rear (different carriers, obviously), and the performance version just had different current limits programmed. Marginal production cost of performance version over a minimal-spec AWD version: $0.
     
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  12. strider

    strider Active Member

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    I would agree w/ most of your statements as they relate to the $35k Model 3. However, I think Tesla will build a high-end Model 3. I expect the top of the line model to be quicker then a P100DL (The BMW M3 is quicker than the M5 so this is not unheard of). Elon will not be able to resist doing a wicked fast version. Not to mention the margins on options and Performance models are huge which will help fund the $35k models. Tesla would have no problem charging $150k for this top of the line model considering it will shame any other vehicle below $800k.

    IMO it shouldn't be that hard, just put the P100DL drivetrain into the Model 3. The battery won't be 100kWh but we expect the new 2170 cells to be able to support higher current so hopefully it could support the P100DL PEM/motors.

    Obviously I'm pushing my hopes for the car :)
     
  13. azred

    azred Member

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    No kidding. Let's try to keep our sanity until the cars are manufactured. Dispelling assumptions is only possible if you work for Tesla. Otherwise this is the kind of empty stuff short sellers feed on.
     
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  14. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    In addition to all of your points there is also the fact that the design, development, testing, and production of the Model S and Model X was substantially more expensive than it will be for the Model 3 simply because they were the first cars Tesla produced at any volume and there was a very steep learning curve there with a lot of included expenses. With the Model 3 they've already learned a lot of those expensive lessons, they've built the corporate knowledge to drawn on, and they now have several years of experience building cars.
     
  15. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Member

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    There is certainly some logical reasoning in the OP, but it needs to be prefaced that it is (obviously) all speculation.

    As with many other people here, I tend to side with the thinking that the Model 3 isn't competing with the S. It's competing with other similar cars from other manufacturers, such as what BMW and Audi offers in the entry luxury car segment. That's the bar we have to gauge the Model 3 on. In that case, yes there will be certain areas where they will be using cheaper materials, but it also has to stand out in that segment which means they can't cut corners too much. If that means blending some offerings into it's more expensive S/X brethren, so be it.
     
  16. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Exactly. Dispelling assumptions with assumptions.
     
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  17. 22522

    22522 Active Member

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    The model 3 will be the best car.
     
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  18. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Supporting Member

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    I frankly don't care if a Model 3 P90 D can do 0-60 in 1.5 seconds. I think it's logical that the Model S remain the flagship of the brand. If there will be a Model 3 that does 0-60 in 4 seconds or less, and its in my budget, I'll be thrilled. I know there will be faster cars out there. I'm also OK with the Model S offering a few features the Model 3 doesn't have. Guess we'll find out soon enough.
     
  19. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    I have to say the original post is a bit confusing or I may be mis-reading it.

    TBH I just don't see the point in comparing with Model S.

    I believe Model 3 will be a game changer in every sense of the word in that it will be much better than its ICE competition in every way. Look at it that way and the sky is the limit.

    Meanwhile, Tesla will have to find ways to keep Model S attractive to premium buyers which they will I'm sure. Imagine what they can do with a premium car when it reaches the point that 90% of Tesla revenue is being brought-in by the lower cost mass market car. Suddenly Tesla has no requirement to maintain high margins on Model S, and instead they will start to offer features and luxury in the Model S that it's direct competition can only dream of matching.
     
  20. Matt125

    Matt125 Member

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    $35k is a heck of a lot of money. In the UK, you can get a gorgeous Mercedes C-Class for less than that - and the "trims" in the car are excellent.
     
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