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Lets do some math!

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by wilhelmspencer, Mar 21, 2017.

  1. wilhelmspencer

    wilhelmspencer Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST

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    Saw this on the Model 3 Owners Club twitter feed this morning.

    Döblinger Firma verkabelt den Tesla 3

    Summary (if you don't want to read): Austrian supplier has received an order from Tesla for 3000 kilometers of high voltage cable (presumably for Model 3).

    Maybe we can do some math and figure out how many cars worth of cable they ordered for?

    I did some estimates and came up with a number. Interested to see what number everyone else comes up with.

    I think the big unknown is approximately how much cable is in each car. Does anyone know how much high voltage cable is in a Model S/X?
     
  2. greenemg

    greenemg Member

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    Elon sain 1.5 KM of wire per 3. That would mean 2000 cars if all high voltage cable. Not sure if that is the case.
     
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  3. wilhelmspencer

    wilhelmspencer Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST

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    He did say that...but this is for the high voltage cable (battery to inverters to motors only). The 1.5 km per car number was for all the wire in the car.
     
  4. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

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    Just my wild stab at this, say each car has 100ft (~30.5m) of high voltage cable. I assume the majority of cable is non-high voltage. This would work out to about 100,000 cars worth.
     
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  5. wilhelmspencer

    wilhelmspencer Model 3 Reserved 3/31/16 In Store 10:20 PST

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    Yeah I know this is just taking shots in the dark...but I think 100 feet of this cable per car is a bit of an over estimate. We don't have a schematic though (at least I don't)...so at this point who the hell knows.

    What is definitely clear though...this was a big purchase for large numbers of cars...some would consider this a "production" order.
     
  6. brucet999

    brucet999 Active Member

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    Zaphod, perhaps one of your heads could whisper to the other to refine that estimate a bit? :)

    The article states that it will be high quality shielded cable to connect battery to traction motors, so definitely not 100 feet of cable per car.
    At 400,000 cars, that would be 7.5 meters (24+ feet) per car. Still way too much, I think.
    Assuming maybe 10 feet of cable for a D model, 7 feet for a RWD (?), would work out to 2 to 3 meters per car, so 3000 km might equip 1.2 million cars.

    Another interesting thing in the article is that G&G has 13 locations, including one or more in Mexico, but plans are to make the cables in Poysdorf, Austria. Maybe they don't make such high-capacity cables in their other factories.
     
  7. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Factor into this already tenuous equation the percentage of this cable order that is likely going into the Model 3 vs. other applications.
     
  8. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    Agree.

    1. Cable from charging port to charger.
    2. Cable from charger to battery
    3. Cable from battery to rear inverter
    4. For D models, cable from battery to front inverter (I read somewhere that this was under the doors on the passenger side?)
    5. Cable from inverter(s) to motor(s).

    My wild guess is ~10 meters per "D" car, and ~6 meters per RWD car. That is 300k dual motors, or 500k rwd cars. Or something in between for a mix of the two...
     
  9. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    As I understand it (alternative understanding alert!), the supplier had a world class salesperson.

    The dialog between the Tesla buyer and the salesperson may have gone something like this:

    Buyer: We need 150 kilometers for our first 10,000 Model 3s. What's your best price?

    Seller:$5.34/meter. But if you buy 500 kilometers, I can drop the price to $4.18

    Buyer: Sounds good. We'll be needing this much pretty soon anyway.

    Seller: And there's a big price break at 1,000 kilometers. $3.67.

    Buyer: That's quite a savings. Let's do that.

    Seller: OK. But if you sign now, pay within 30 days, and buy 3,000-10,000 kilometers, I can give you the power-buyer price of $3.31.

    Buyer: We'll take 3,000 kilometers. Where do I sign?

    Later that day...

    Buyer to Tesla boss: I just negotiated a great deal on the high voltage wire.

    Boss: Tell me.

    Buyer: For less than $10 million dollars, we'll have more than enough wire for the first 200,000 M3s. And we have 30 days before we have to pay.

    Boss: $10 million? Fired!
     
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  10. Chewy3

    Chewy3 If MacGvyer had a beard

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    Also possible the cable could be used for the charging cables, SC, model S, and model X
     
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  11. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    And any SolarCity product too. And was there any mention of a repeat order? Is that 30 days supply? Presumably it would be an order with a regular cadence.
     
  12. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

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    I did say it was a wild stab. I was trying to be conservative in my estimate, guess maybe a bit too conservative. :D
     
  13. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    According to this: Tesla Model 3: supplier says it received an order for 3,000 km of ‘shielded aluminum cables’ from Tesla

    It is for the Model 3 and it is used to connect the battery to the motor. Given that info, we could toss out a figure of maybe 2 or 3 feet per car. Split the difference and call it 2.5 feet per car, gives over 3 million cars - that seems like a lot. maybe there's 10 feet in each car, that's just under a million, that still seems like a lot to order for an initial order. Who knows though maybe it's 20 feet...
     
  14. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    Could even be part of the factory itself?
     
  15. Bangor Bob

    Bangor Bob Member

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    The D's will need more. If you put the High Voltage Junction Block in a location to minimize the rear motor cable run, the front motor cable run gets longer.

    Aluminum is an interesting choice. Lighter per amp carried than copper. Also considerably less expensive. Connections are trickier, (galvanic corrosion, everything needs dielectric grease) but the company also makes Al-specific connectors.
     
  16. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    And copper thieves won't be stealing the cars so that they can pull out the wire!o_O
     
  17. brucet999

    brucet999 Active Member

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    The article specifically says "Ein geschirmtes Aluminiumkabel mit Silikonleitung sichert die Stromversorgung zwischen Energiespeicher und Elektromotor". Translation: a shielded aluminum cable with silicone sheathing secures the power supply between battery and electric motor.
     

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