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Likelihood of a CHAdeMO adapter for the Model S

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we don't know if SC hardware is a needed for the adapter, or if even the 40 can use it

You should ask Tesla before spending the money; but I am almost positive that if your car can't Supercharge, then it can't use the CHAdeMO adapter either. By far the simplest approach is for the CHAdeMO adapter to go through the DC connection used by Superchargers, rather than the AC connection that uses the car's single or twin chargers.

Of course, before spending the money you should also inquire about when the adapter may be available. Some simple features (like text-on-charge-stop) that Tesla promised Roadster owners 2.5 years ago are still not here, so I have some concerns about how long a complicated CHAdeMO adapter will take. I would think the CHAdeMO adapter is important enough (it is likely affecting sales NOW) that they would move on it, but you never know.
 
it'll be interesting to see the cost of the SAE DC & CHAdeMO adapters, 500$ each? (maybe SAE will be cheaper?) Maybe another reason why SC is 2k because these adapters will be included at some point.

Would be great for tesla to come out on some of this, they're losing time on being the first car in production to support SAE DC
 
You should ask Tesla before spending the money; but I am almost positive that if your car can't Supercharge, then it can't use the CHAdeMO adapter either. By far the simplest approach is for the CHAdeMO adapter to go through the DC connection used by Superchargers, rather than the AC connection that uses the car's single or twin chargers.

Of course, before spending the money you should also inquire about when the adapter may be available. Some simple features (like text-on-charge-stop) that Tesla promised Roadster owners 2.5 years ago are still not here, so I have some concerns about how long a complicated CHAdeMO adapter will take. I would think the CHAdeMO adapter is important enough (it is likely affecting sales NOW) that they would move on it, but you never know.

I would assume that DC-DC charging will equal supercharging. If you are not enabled, then the adapter would not work for you.
 
I would think the CHAdeMO adapter is important enough (it is likely affecting sales NOW) that they would move on it, but you never know.

Quite opposite, we know. Tesla Motors would have to do it for the sake of Japanese market, but that will happen by the middle of 2013 with introduction of right hand drive model for UK & Asia... And European market would also benefit from such adapter substantially.
 
it'll be interesting to see the cost of the SAE DC & CHAdeMO adapters, 500$ each? (maybe SAE will be cheaper?) Maybe another reason why SC is 2k because these adapters will be included at some point.

I'd be jumping with joy if the complicated CHAdeMO adapter ends up costing $500. Unfortunately I do not think it is very likely. My guess would be somewhere around $1000-$1500. And you would definately need the SC hardware, since the contactors to bypass the internal chargers surely won't we there otherwise.
 
48 ChadeMos in the US
If Tesla hit 100 SC in a year they could surpass them.

What is your source for the # 48 ?

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I'd be jumping with joy if the complicated CHAdeMO adapter ends up costing $500. Unfortunately I do not think it is very likely. My guess would be somewhere around $1000-$1500. And you would definately need the SC hardware, since the contactors to bypass the internal chargers surely won't we there otherwise.
I suspect you're correct about the >$1000 price.

The physical housing, connectors, etc. shouldn't cost much more than the J1772, which we also don't know the price of. The harder part is going from the CHAdeMO protocol running on CAN bus, to Tesla protocol which I understand to be PLC. That means there's going to be two hardware interfaces, some kind of simple processor, and a power supply, all housed in the connector. The interfaces are industry standard parts and quite inexpensive, as is the processor and power supply, so there's probably around $100 in parts, maybe less.

Low volume production though might make this pretty expensive since the development and tooling costs have to be amortized. If one assumes that the SAE connector will predominate in a few years, the lifetime of the design might be pretty short. It seems pretty likely that Tesla will have an SAE adapter solution within a few years.

It might be good if there were a CHAdeMO to SAE device, similar to the above, but that would be an add on to existing public CHAdeMO stations. Very low production volumes, but much easier packaging since it would be built into the charging station, likely with it's own cable and plug.