How am I supposed to interpret this? You're saying they are full of sugar and 25% is not gonna happen, because you know better?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- elon is an ass investing TSLA
How am I supposed to interpret this? You're saying they are full of sugar and 25% is not gonna happen, because you know better?
I guess I'm in fact-checking mode today. According to www.stock-analysis-on.net/NYSE/Company/Ford-Motor-Co/Ratios/Profitability:
Gross profit margin 11.76% 9.03% 10.14% 10.73% 11.57% (for 2015..2011 resp).
You say "through its dealership model", maybe you mean that the dealers take the other just-over-half? But I don't think that's correct either.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Mainstream auto dealers take ~2% while luxury car dealers take ~7% margins on new cars.
But they make up for it with CPO, used cars and especially service.
dandurston
Member
Looks like Toyota does 15-20% gross margin. I could be missing something.
Toyota Motor Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) (TM)
Toyota Motor Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) (TM)
Oh, I couldn't have kids for other reasons, I totally would have, I'm just sour-grapesing.
For newer long term investors, and a refresher for others
Good bio-evolution primer on Elon Musk-
(Short and to the point but covers the bases)
The incredible story of Elon Musk, from getting bullied in school to the most interesting man in tech - Business Insider
The incredible story of Elon Musk, from getting bullied in school to the most interesting man in tech
One strategic piece missing is the SpaceX satellite subsidiary
SpaceX satellite development facility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Good bio-evolution primer on Elon Musk-
(Short and to the point but covers the bases)
The incredible story of Elon Musk, from getting bullied in school to the most interesting man in tech - Business Insider
The incredible story of Elon Musk, from getting bullied in school to the most interesting man in tech
One strategic piece missing is the SpaceX satellite subsidiary
SpaceX satellite development facility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Did the dilution math on the merger and assuming 145m Tesla shares and 98m SolarCity shares and a 12:1 ratio it's a bout 5.5%. Not too bad I guess.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Isn't it closer to a 9:1 ratio?
I got enthusiastic when I heard Elon's presentation.
One example avoiding all of the hoops they needed to jump through for the Hawaii deal.
Yeah I don't know what the exact ratio is, this was just a back of the napkin ballpark number. Thanks, should have noted that.
I was just trying to get an idea of long term dilution possibilities assuming that in the next ten years say they do many capital raises. If you're a shareholder today how much will your shares be diluted after ten years? If this merger is considered a major dilution, then 5ish% doesn't seem too bad IMO.
Ulmo
Active Member
Today's morning conference call gave a lot more information about the Tesla & Solar City merger (Tesla buying Solar City) proposal. There were a lot of new directions for financing issues (less leasing and more financing including home financing), and new directions for product cooperation, integration, manufacturing, features, etc. (extremely numerous), as well as some explanations of timing. The timing discussion from Elon about a recent Hawaii agreement explained the urgency. Most of what went into this conference call should have been done closer to the original announcement, but I'm glad they finally did it, and I am basically satisfied with what they said. I'm still on track to accepting the merger and insisting they don't screw up the company going forward. The ideas I have for a merged company sound like the same ideas they have for the merged company, especially when it comes to the detailed speech they had (further than just the words themselves; you'd have to listen to catch it all since reading it wouldn't suffice for that).
To be clear, the ideas for a combined company are fantastic, from my point of view, and shared by all the leaders of Tesla as well, and this conference call made that more abundantly clear. My questions regarding the particulars of combining Tesla & Solar City had more to do with WHICH companies combined and HOW, and I've slowly been seeing that Tesla intends to do this right, not just jamb it in and play finance games and hope it all works. There are fantastic opportunities here, and it seems that they know which opportunities exist and how to do them. I'm all for that. The alternative would have been obviously horrible (not seeing the opportunities, or not understanding them properly, something we see other companies do quite often, and I've even seen intra-product with Model S, and usually a company that doesn't even understand its own market is more willing to stuff its management with people who place finance games than those who have a good vision of product purpose and product goals like Tesla).
I already posted in the short term thread that the current Solar City CEO is a horrible speaker from the first few minutes of the conference call that I listened to early in the morning. After getting time to listen to the conference call properly this afternoon, I can tell why: 75% because of the horrible accent and unwillingness to talk slower to correct for that error, and 25% compounded unwillingness to learn how to speak well in general (as if he just gave up about being a good speaker). Hearing all of the parties talk like they did today gives me a lot better confidence in the future of a combined force than the individual components.
To be clear, the ideas for a combined company are fantastic, from my point of view, and shared by all the leaders of Tesla as well, and this conference call made that more abundantly clear. My questions regarding the particulars of combining Tesla & Solar City had more to do with WHICH companies combined and HOW, and I've slowly been seeing that Tesla intends to do this right, not just jamb it in and play finance games and hope it all works. There are fantastic opportunities here, and it seems that they know which opportunities exist and how to do them. I'm all for that. The alternative would have been obviously horrible (not seeing the opportunities, or not understanding them properly, something we see other companies do quite often, and I've even seen intra-product with Model S, and usually a company that doesn't even understand its own market is more willing to stuff its management with people who place finance games than those who have a good vision of product purpose and product goals like Tesla).
I already posted in the short term thread that the current Solar City CEO is a horrible speaker from the first few minutes of the conference call that I listened to early in the morning. After getting time to listen to the conference call properly this afternoon, I can tell why: 75% because of the horrible accent and unwillingness to talk slower to correct for that error, and 25% compounded unwillingness to learn how to speak well in general (as if he just gave up about being a good speaker). Hearing all of the parties talk like they did today gives me a lot better confidence in the future of a combined force than the individual components.
Last edited:
So this might be interesting for people. I started kind of a basic discounted cash flow for Tesla a few years ago. I got tired of trying to update it, so I just made it super conservative to sort of get a picture of what it would look like if they fall way short of expectations, but not like major economic meltdown bad. I did this basically with five main levers. The first is to just do a 15% margin across all the products (much lower than predicted), trim all the average selling prices by five or ten percent and then flatline them over the years (so the model s will cost the same in 2024 as today), only go off book value instead of PE (so I'm assuming that 15% margin is either going to be a profit in cash, or just get plowed back into RD/Assets, so either way it's a basic increase to book value), and I'm keeping sales numbers very low (for example 200k M3 sold in 2020 rather than 500k), and not only are sales numbers low, but I stopped updating after the Model 3, so there is no accounting for future cars, batteries, or SolarCity. So I think those five things are enough to keep projections potentially insightful, but still very conservative.
So anyway, I just revisited this after not looking at it for a while, and it was kind of like wow when thinking about the battery business and SolarCity, neither of which are included. So if you assume that the battery business and solarcity will eventually be adding to book value, the DCF is pretty revealing. So the numbers; the model projects a book value of about 42B in 2024, and a book value per share of 141 based on a really diluted 300M shares.
Is that 141 for certain? No, we could have a major economic event or Tesla could start making really bad products that nobody wants. But I think this model could fairly be called very conservative, which is kind of crazy considering that number is still 141 and it doesn't include over half the cars they are expected to sell, any of the batteries or solar.
*Also I'm not including the actual spreadsheet just because I don't really want to answer questions about it, and it's actually pretty simple so it wouldn't take long for people to reproduce on their own, which is probably better anyway. Cheers.
So anyway, I just revisited this after not looking at it for a while, and it was kind of like wow when thinking about the battery business and SolarCity, neither of which are included. So if you assume that the battery business and solarcity will eventually be adding to book value, the DCF is pretty revealing. So the numbers; the model projects a book value of about 42B in 2024, and a book value per share of 141 based on a really diluted 300M shares.
Is that 141 for certain? No, we could have a major economic event or Tesla could start making really bad products that nobody wants. But I think this model could fairly be called very conservative, which is kind of crazy considering that number is still 141 and it doesn't include over half the cars they are expected to sell, any of the batteries or solar.
*Also I'm not including the actual spreadsheet just because I don't really want to answer questions about it, and it's actually pretty simple so it wouldn't take long for people to reproduce on their own, which is probably better anyway. Cheers.
PaulRocket
Member
Hi,
I have been working on a very rough estimate on how much revenue Tesla might be making by 2022. Why this date? Well, I'm looking to buy some calls that run until december 2022 and I plan on holding them that long.
My guess is Tesla will be making 100 billion dollars of revenue by 2022.
Here the breakdown:
1) Tesla Energy: $18bn
120GWh of energy storage*150$ per kWh= $18bn
The GF 1 is supposed to produce about 75 GWh of energy storage at full production by 2020. I assume Tesla will have at least 2 more Gigafactories up and running by 2022. Even though they won't be producing a lot, each GF will add about 22.5 GWh of energy storage.
I think the reason why Tesla's prices are at 470$ per kWh is simply because they are trying hold back demand until the Powerball V2.0 is ready. Then, Tesla will drop prices to under 300$ per kWh and by 2020 they will be able to produce the pack for under 100$ per kWh. 150$ per kWh should give them a good profit margin.
2) Tesla Automotive: $52bn
1.3 Mio cars*$40,000= $52bn
I think Tesla's automotive sales won't scale much higher then 1-2 Mio. cars after Model 3 and Y are in full production. By 2022 1.3 Mio cars should be realistic, I'm not sure about the average selling price, Elon mentioned $42,000 for the Model 3 so for the sake of simplicity I'll assume $40,000.
3) Tesla Solar: $20bn
2.2 Mio customers*7kW each*1.3$ per W=$20bn
Assuming the Powerwalls capacity will increase to 10kWh and assuming that the split between Powerwall and Powerpack is roughy 18/82 I'm guessing Tesla will sell about 2.2 Mio Solar installations along with their Powerwall sales. Right now SolarCity is adding about 150,000 customers each year so Tesla would have to grow sales tenfold in 6 years. I'm confident Tesla will be able to do this, due to significant price reductions for both the solar panels and the batteries and also due to the new beautiful solar roof. The 7kW installation size is the average size of an american residential solar house.
4) Tesla Trucks: $10bn
50,000*$200,000=$10bn
I'm really not sure how realistic this number is, but Daimler sold around 170,000 heavy duty vehicles last year.
5) Tesla mobility: $1.3bn
$66,000*20,000=$1.3bn
Assuming the cars making about $7,50 per hour, 24/7/365 that amounts to about $66,000 per vehicle. Assuming a fleet of 20,000 vehicles the revenue amounts to $1.3bn.
All of this amounts to $101.3bn of revenue. Obviously these are very rough calculations with lots and lots of assumptions. Please excuse any spelling or grammar mistakes, english is not my first language. I'd be happy to hear your feedback and if the number is realistic
I have been working on a very rough estimate on how much revenue Tesla might be making by 2022. Why this date? Well, I'm looking to buy some calls that run until december 2022 and I plan on holding them that long.
My guess is Tesla will be making 100 billion dollars of revenue by 2022.
Here the breakdown:
1) Tesla Energy: $18bn
120GWh of energy storage*150$ per kWh= $18bn
The GF 1 is supposed to produce about 75 GWh of energy storage at full production by 2020. I assume Tesla will have at least 2 more Gigafactories up and running by 2022. Even though they won't be producing a lot, each GF will add about 22.5 GWh of energy storage.
I think the reason why Tesla's prices are at 470$ per kWh is simply because they are trying hold back demand until the Powerball V2.0 is ready. Then, Tesla will drop prices to under 300$ per kWh and by 2020 they will be able to produce the pack for under 100$ per kWh. 150$ per kWh should give them a good profit margin.
2) Tesla Automotive: $52bn
1.3 Mio cars*$40,000= $52bn
I think Tesla's automotive sales won't scale much higher then 1-2 Mio. cars after Model 3 and Y are in full production. By 2022 1.3 Mio cars should be realistic, I'm not sure about the average selling price, Elon mentioned $42,000 for the Model 3 so for the sake of simplicity I'll assume $40,000.
3) Tesla Solar: $20bn
2.2 Mio customers*7kW each*1.3$ per W=$20bn
Assuming the Powerwalls capacity will increase to 10kWh and assuming that the split between Powerwall and Powerpack is roughy 18/82 I'm guessing Tesla will sell about 2.2 Mio Solar installations along with their Powerwall sales. Right now SolarCity is adding about 150,000 customers each year so Tesla would have to grow sales tenfold in 6 years. I'm confident Tesla will be able to do this, due to significant price reductions for both the solar panels and the batteries and also due to the new beautiful solar roof. The 7kW installation size is the average size of an american residential solar house.
4) Tesla Trucks: $10bn
50,000*$200,000=$10bn
I'm really not sure how realistic this number is, but Daimler sold around 170,000 heavy duty vehicles last year.
5) Tesla mobility: $1.3bn
$66,000*20,000=$1.3bn
Assuming the cars making about $7,50 per hour, 24/7/365 that amounts to about $66,000 per vehicle. Assuming a fleet of 20,000 vehicles the revenue amounts to $1.3bn.
All of this amounts to $101.3bn of revenue. Obviously these are very rough calculations with lots and lots of assumptions. Please excuse any spelling or grammar mistakes, english is not my first language. I'd be happy to hear your feedback and if the number is realistic
Hi,
I have been working on a very rough estimate on how much revenue Tesla might be making by 2022. Why this date? Well, I'm looking to buy some calls that run until december 2022 and I plan on holding them that long.
.....
All of this amounts to $101.3bn of revenue. Obviously these are very rough calculations with lots and lots of assumptions. Please excuse any spelling or grammar mistakes, english is not my first language. I'd be happy to hear your feedback and if the number is realistic
Do you have a stock price target for 2022 as well? Just curious what you compute that to be with your model's assumptions. .
PaulRocket
Member
Assuming a 20% profit margin and a P/E ratio of 15 that would give us a price target of 2000$.
Since I'm assuming a lot in my model, I would conservatively say that you shouldn't sell the stock for under 1000$.
Since I'm assuming a lot in my model, I would conservatively say that you shouldn't sell the stock for under 1000$.
PaulRocket
Member
I should add that I'm really hoping that some major OEM will join Tesla with the Supercharger network. I don't think any of the german carmakers will join, I actually think Volvo is the most likely and they've said that they would like to sell 80,000 electric vehicles a year by 2020. Assuming Tesla charging them a fee of $2,000 per vehicle that gets Supercharger access, thats $160M. Not a huge amount, but nice pocket money. If Volvo joins then maybe Nissan or someone else will join and things will get bigger from there on.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Where do you buy calls with a later expiration than LEAPS?
Plan has been updated. GF1 is supposed to produce 105 GWh of cells at full production.
PaulRocket
Member
I'm not sure we have leaps here in Germany. Here it's called a "Optionsschein". If Tesla's stock is under 330$ on the 16th of December 2022 my calls will be worth nothing. If the stock is at 335$ I will get 335$-330$=5$*0,01=0,05$
Right now these calls are trading at around 0,75$ so the stock will have to be at 405$ for me to break even. In my eyes this is a very good investment, especially since I don't want to trade the stock, I just want to hold and wait and the ROI will be much greater with the calls then if I would buy the stock. Although I still hold a small number of shares.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Marketplace listing
- Locked
- Marketplace listing
