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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Agree, and Elon has said something to the effect that they are putting 5% of their current effort into G3.
Also agree, if they delay G3 then they are opening up the door for someone else to steal the momentum.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
pulled from the http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...he-quot-giga-quot-battery-factory-issue/page3 thread
"Just to add a little more data to these calculations, here's a great article on the cost of battery factories originally posted by someone in CapOp's battery pack price thread.
http://americanmanufacturing.org/fil...main%20(4).pdf
The article roughly states that a new factory costs about $4 per cell that it will produce each year, which is consistent with the Suminoe expansion you mention. It also says that the same factory in China would be about 15% cheaper than the US though."
Quick math would put the costs at 4K Cells/G3 * 1/2M G3/Yr * $4/Cell gives you $8B.
Add to that-
Engineering
Ramp Costs (equipment, vendor tooling and other NRE)
Receivables funding (hopefully by credit line)
and you're talking a good bit of cash.....
I think worse than a delayed G3 would be G3 with insufficient production. It would put to bed forever the idea that BEV can not replace ICE and yet Tesla would not be able to meet the demand they will have created. That scenario is the best one for another MFG to step in and fill the void.
"Just to add a little more data to these calculations, here's a great article on the cost of battery factories originally posted by someone in CapOp's battery pack price thread.
http://americanmanufacturing.org/fil...main%20(4).pdf
The article roughly states that a new factory costs about $4 per cell that it will produce each year, which is consistent with the Suminoe expansion you mention. It also says that the same factory in China would be about 15% cheaper than the US though."
Quick math would put the costs at 4K Cells/G3 * 1/2M G3/Yr * $4/Cell gives you $8B.
Add to that-
Engineering
Ramp Costs (equipment, vendor tooling and other NRE)
Receivables funding (hopefully by credit line)
and you're talking a good bit of cash.....
I think worse than a delayed G3 would be G3 with insufficient production. It would put to bed forever the idea that BEV can not replace ICE and yet Tesla would not be able to meet the demand they will have created. That scenario is the best one for another MFG to step in and fill the void.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Tesla's disruption means that the old guidelines don't apply. ICE vehicles maintain their value precisely because the new models aren't all that much better than the previous models. I believe Tesla's new models will be a lot better. Early technology adopters are used to the upgrade cycle, but it hasn't happened at $100K automobile levels before. This is uncharted territory, and if Tesla continues to innovate and improve their products as fast as I think they will (and need to), then this is the price.
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It's kind of like saying all those people buying new BMW 3-series should be buying used 5-series. It just doesn't work that way.
Except in this case, the new model will have better technology, and technology is a big selling point for Tesla, wouldn't you say?
Smorgasbord has a really strong point about the pace of cost reductions and/or advancements in the battery/inverter/engine making a used S look unfavorable compared to a new E. However, I'd have to think Tesla would be improving the battery pack in the S and updating the model otherwise the E would make even a new S look like a poor value at the current pricing. Given that, I'd hope that Tesla would have some sort of retrofit option to bring older S up to date, otherwise I can see a 5 year old Model S having resale difficulty akin to a 5 year old iPad compared to today's versions.
I would say that there are people who need the space of a 5-series, and would not even consider a 3 series. So they buy a used 5, because that is what they can afford. And with the market of people who will consider EVs (at all) growing rapidly, there will be a significant number of them for whom the used Model S will be the right vehicle. At no time did I say what you're saying; quite the opposite.
Ummm, no, that's not what I would say. I agree that the Model E will have better technology and technology is ONE big selling point for Tesla, but it is certainly not the only one. I think that in three years, the Model S will be the second best technology on the market, and maybe the other selling points will outweigh the one, for a non-trivial number of potential purchasers.
Oh, BTW, I have every intention of being one of the first Signature Model E's delivered. It will actually be a better match for what we want in a car, and I do expect it to be better, faster, stronger... But there's also one Model S that will never be on the used market while I can still drive.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You think the new Model S will have greater range, better performance, and cost the same as a three year old Model S? I don't.
Why do people pay more for a used 4 year old 7 series than a new 3 series?
edit: I was referring to the guy who was claiming that people would rather buy a new Model E than a used Model S, and my post was supposed to reference that.
Still these are theoretical low probability scenarios that you cannot worry about. There is a whole list of remote things that can happen to Tesla, and those are the risks of investing in general.
I just feel like the risk for TSLA is actually very low right now (relatively speaking compared to the majority of companies that are publicly traded) and you have to invest when you find opportunities like this one.
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resale value will depend a lot on how well the batteries hold up against degradation and the pricing plan and implementation of battery exchange (at SC's) or swapping.
If someone can get a brand new (refurbished?) 85kw battery for a relatively low price, then that will dramatically increase the value of the original (current) Model S's
On the other hand, if we see significant degradation (very unlikely, it appears), then purchasing a used MS will be a very dicey proposition.
Re-selling used EV's is very different than ICE's - it would be beneficial to everyone involved if a standard for 'battery health' could be established by Tesla to allow for fair comparisons in the resale market.
If someone can get a brand new (refurbished?) 85kw battery for a relatively low price, then that will dramatically increase the value of the original (current) Model S's
On the other hand, if we see significant degradation (very unlikely, it appears), then purchasing a used MS will be a very dicey proposition.
Re-selling used EV's is very different than ICE's - it would be beneficial to everyone involved if a standard for 'battery health' could be established by Tesla to allow for fair comparisons in the resale market.
I think it's an impact in relation to the amount technology advances. In 3 years, Tesla may very well be able to offer a 85kwh and 110kwh for the same price as today's 60kwh and 85kwh.
If I'm shopping for a used 85kwh Model S, the price on that used car is going to be valued in relation to the new 85kwh which is now Tesla's cheaper model rather than the high end model.
As gaswall and I think DaveT noted, a lot depends on Tesla's support for reasonably priced battery (and/or motor/inverter) swap outs in the future. If Tesla has really good support there, that has a huge positive impact on resale value.
Oh absolutely, I'm just commenting on the difficulty in knowing how well Tesla's guaranteed price is going to really hold up to actual resale value. I personally think Tesla could take a loss on that guarantee as part of the cost of encouraging adoption/demand. Who cares if they lose a little money on each of the first, oh, 40000 cars if it nets them a solid market presence with 200,000/year demand in 2017?
InTheShadows
Active Member
My guess is that they already do. Laptop batteries keep track of charge cycles and they also calculate total amp hour capacity. They have done this for years. For the car to tell you the range, it too has to be able to calculate the remaining amp hours of capacity. To figure battery health you just have to divide the actual Ah capacity by the original value when the battery reaches full charge.
Depreciation of Model S's is definitely been on my mind ever since I got hooked on the tech. Largely, I believe it depends, with all other things being equal, on ongoing, future and 'perceived' demand. I say 'all other things being equal' but have faith that they are actually 'better' than the competition and will remain so for the foreseeable future in the EV market (c'mon Nissan, prove me wrong!) as the 18650 form factor is better with TM's IP.
If TM increases range of a future battery and there is no other competition I believe they will price accordingly. As a consumer, I really don't know how much margin they have in the battery. As a shareholder I'm happy. As a member of TMC I know they are increasing margins as I'm sure the price/kWh is dropping.
I am concerned about the wear and tear on the rest of the car (i.e. non-drivetrain) but when I go to sell the car, when the X arrives, I believe that I can get waaaay more than even 80% **IF** there is at least a 2 month wait on 60's and I have ~60k miles left on the battery warranty.
Realize that I'm deducting the fed credit and sales tax in WA State in my estimation as I believe the buyer has to pay sales tax on a used EV (not sure on that, but will find out when I sell the car
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If TM increases range of a future battery and there is no other competition I believe they will price accordingly. As a consumer, I really don't know how much margin they have in the battery. As a shareholder I'm happy. As a member of TMC I know they are increasing margins as I'm sure the price/kWh is dropping.
I am concerned about the wear and tear on the rest of the car (i.e. non-drivetrain) but when I go to sell the car, when the X arrives, I believe that I can get waaaay more than even 80% **IF** there is at least a 2 month wait on 60's and I have ~60k miles left on the battery warranty.
Realize that I'm deducting the fed credit and sales tax in WA State in my estimation as I believe the buyer has to pay sales tax on a used EV (not sure on that, but will find out when I sell the car
)JB has said that they have a significant advantage in battery costs (roughly ~50%) so its more like $2/cell not $4/cell as you cite above, so you get $4B instead of $8B (which is a big difference!). And the current excess cells are enough for TSLA to produce several hundred thousand cars/yr.
It's $4/cell to build a fab manufacturing facility. Lola is talking about the capital expenditures to build a battery factory. You are confusing cost to produce one cell with the cost to build a factory.
What $4/cell means is that if you wanted to build a factory that can produce one cell per year it would cost you $4. Then you can probably make this cell for $1 - $2 and sell it to Tesla for $1.50 - $3.00.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I almost never read the full content of any Tesla article by analysts anymore. I go straight down to the comments section to read people's opinions. It is impressive to read how the majority of average Joes are realizing Tesla is onto something big.
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