Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Norse]

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German carmaker Daimler (DAIGn.DE) is taking over stakes in two battery cell producers from Evonik (EVKn.DE), making Daimler the sole owner of both companies.

Daimler buys electric car battery activities from Evonik

- - - Updated - - -

Ford + GE = Big Electric Vehicle Charging Station Rollout
Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/03/ford-ge-big-electric-vehicle-charging-station-rollout/#2P0o21mOji83EBFK.99

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/03/ford-ge-big-electric-vehicle-charging-station-rollout/

 

[dalalsid]

Paulo Santos has another "peaked US delivery" article out at seekingalpha. Now we need to wait for a "peaked Norway delivery" one next I Guess..

 

[hcsharp]

Paulo Santos has another "peaked US delivery" article out at seekingalpha. Now we need to wait for a "peaked Norway delivery" one next I Guess..

I would think he'd be a little shy and embarrassed about writing such things now that he's said it several times and sales continue to grow. I remember when he defended his assertion that the Model S and EVs in general were just a niche market and would ultimately never go anywhere. He still has a lot of misinformation despite the fact that some of us have educated him on many things. It's funny because a lot of the other stuff he writes on SA is fairly intelligent (not related to TSLA or EVs).

 

[JRP3]

He keeps "kicking the can" down the road to "next quarter will reflect the decline"

 

[The Blue Owl]

I would think he'd be a little shy and embarrassed about writing such things now that he's said it several times and sales continue to grow. I remember when he defended his assertion that the Model S and EVs in general were just a niche market and would ultimately never go anywhere. He still has a lot of misinformation despite the fact that some of us have educated him on many things. It's funny because a lot of the other stuff he writes on SA is fairly intelligent (not related to TSLA or EVs).

I think he doesn't care, as there are always new readers who don't know his track record. I know I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially, until other board members set me straight. Only then I proceeded to read his previous contributions and realized I'd been duped.

I once gave a guy on the street 20$ because he told me his car broke down and he had forgotten his wallet at home. Later I found out it was a running scam in the area. There's a sucker born every minute.

 

[Curt Renz]

I would think he'd be a little shy and embarrassed about writing such things now that he's said it several times and sales continue to grow. I remember when he defended his assertion that the Model S and EVs in general were just a niche market and would ultimately never go anywhere. He still has a lot of misinformation despite the fact that some of us have educated him on many things. It's funny because a lot of the other stuff he writes on SA is fairly intelligent (not related to TSLA or EVs).

He receives a penny for every reader who clicks to view his articles. Tesla articles on Seeking Alpha are quite popular and can draw as many as 50,000 clicks, especially if they are negative. That's $500 to the author. He apparently considers that enough of an inducement to write seemingly new articles every week, even if they are little more than rehashes. Moral of the story: Don't click into his articles.

 

[adiggs]

He receives a penny for every reader who clicks to view his articles. Tesla articles on Seeking Alpha are quite popular and can draw as many as 50,000 clicks, especially if they are negative. That's $500 to the author. He apparently considers that enough of an inducement to write seemingly new articles every week, even if they are little more than rehashes. Moral of the story: Don't click into his articles.

This! Paulo has earned his way into my Petersen bucket, of SA authors I ignore. If he does have an idea that would alter my investment thesis, then I expect somebody else will also be writing about it, and I'll see it that way. My time isn't the most valuable, but it's still what I have, and reading authors in the Petersen bucket has proven consistently to be a waste of that precious commodity (for me!).

 

[dalalsid]

He receives a penny for every reader who clicks to view his articles. Tesla articles on Seeking Alpha are quite popular and can draw as many as 50,000 clicks, especially if they are negative. That's $500 to the author. He apparently considers that enough of an inducement to write seemingly new articles every week, even if they are little more than rehashes. Moral of the story: Don't click into his articles.

Wow Thats more than 3X my most popular and 8X my average!

 

[FluxCap]

In the era of clickbait/linkbait "articles" rising to the top of Google news feeds, starving "journalists" with loose morals are easily purchased for pennies. Seems like a bargain if you want to buy a little manipulation. Should we take up a collection?

 

[techmaven]

Paulo Santos has another "peaked US delivery" article out at seekingalpha. Now we need to wait for a "peaked Norway delivery" one next I Guess..

Yup... as Tesla is delivering 50% of its production to China, we'll see both peaked U.S. and peaked Norway delivery articles. Good for 50,000 clicks.

Petersen's latest includes him referencing the flawed Hawkins paper again by stating that the greenhouse gas emissions from production could not be offset through the life of the car. Thoroughly debunked both by lay people and in research literature, but he's still stating it even after it was brought straight to his attention. If the bear story is so clear, why bother lying?

 

[Auzie]

I think he doesn't care, as there are always new readers who don't know his track record. I know I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially, until other board members set me straight. Only then I proceeded to read his previous contributions and realized I'd been duped.

I read some of his articles and he seems like a dog with a bone. His bone is: no demand for Tesla. I wonder if he really believes his thesis.

Almost a year ago, he pointed to an arbitrage trading opportunity on Tesla, which was correct. He seems quite knowledgeable and I find his writing style very clear.

I had a few discussions with a Tesla bear. That bear is, like Paulo, intelligent and knowledgeable. It seems to me that reason and knowledge are often bypassed when sticking to personal biased opinions. We see and hear what we want to see and hear, especially when stakes are high. The other side of the coin is that perhaps we Tesla longs are biased, and time will tell who is right. On the topic of demand for electric cars, my view is that Tesla will be production constrained for many years to come.

[/QUOTE]I once gave a guy on the street 20$ because he told me his car broke down and he had forgotten his wallet at home. Later I found out it was a running scam in the area. There's a sucker born every minute.[/QUOTE]

Very nice of you. It is ok to be a nice sucker.:smile:

 

[uselesslogin]

I swore I saw a post somewhere talking about the service center saying they were seeing a lot less warranty service or at least that it wasn't increasing with all the new deliveries. I wonder if they have worked most quality issues out by now with their new found leverage with suppliers and just gaining operational experience. Right now the reliability record is so-so but one benefit the long term investor sees in an electric automobile manufacturer is lower warranty cost due to higher reliability. It would be very nice if somewhere down the line Tesla comes out with the best reliability record on top of being the most highly rated car in Consumer Reports. My only evidence of this reliability improvement so far is that if you go to the Model S forum on the Tesla web page it seems like there are fewer posts about issues with the car. I'm wondering if anyone has any more substantial evidence.

 

[austinEV]

I swore I saw a post somewhere talking about the service center saying they were seeing a lot less warranty service or at least that it wasn't increasing with all the new deliveries. I wonder if they have worked most quality issues out by now with their new found leverage with suppliers and just gaining operational experience. Right now the reliability record is so-so but one benefit the long term investor sees in an electric automobile manufacturer is lower warranty cost due to higher reliability. It would be very nice if somewhere down the line Tesla comes out with the best reliability record on top of being the most highly rated car in Consumer Reports. My only evidence of this reliability improvement so far is that if you go to the Model S forum on the Tesla web page it seems like there are fewer posts about issues with the car. I'm wondering if anyone has any more substantial evidence.

This is something I am monitoring as well. I hope that in time we look back and see that there was a rough first year or so, not so unusual for a first "model year" and then a sharp decline in warranty work. Part of the value proposition of EV's is fewer things to go wrong, so we need to see that in the data.

I can say from the perspective of the 1-vehicle data set I am very familiar with (my car) I have had to go in for 3 reasons. 1 very large, 1 medium, 1 quite small. The very large one would be bad if it was common, but I am pretty certain it is very rare. The medium one was annoying abut a small cost part. The last one was essentially a badly written error message. I am holding on a few months without issue now. Fingers crossed, all the kinks are worked out. I look at this as a potential microcosm of the whole population.

 

[30seconds]

This is something I am monitoring as well. I hope that in time we look back and see that there was a rough first year or so, not so unusual for a first "model year" and then a sharp decline in warranty work. Part of the value proposition of EV's is fewer things to go wrong, so we need to see that in the data.

I can say from the perspective of the 1-vehicle data set I am very familiar with (my car) I have had to go in for 3 reasons. 1 very large, 1 medium, 1 quite small. The very large one would be bad if it was common, but I am pretty certain it is very rare. The medium one was annoying abut a small cost part. The last one was essentially a badly written error message. I am holding on a few months without issue now. Fingers crossed, all the kinks are worked out. I look at this as a potential microcosm of the whole population.

I think the key item in looking at this is if the same problems are occurring on an ongoing basis. It seems that TSLA's model of taking out and replacing the whole component is allowing them to send back for analysis and quickly integrating fixes back into production. Windshield, sunroof, door handles, door seal, 12V (tough one), motor hum... I find this to be a very very positive set of developments.

Although it will take some time to play out (maybe another 3-4 years) I think there will be another shift in public perception of TSLA when there are multiple vehicles at 150,000 miles+ with relatively little service costs. I've taken a number of german cars to 200,000 miles and each one becomes something of a labor of love to replace parts that are not broken but you suspect will fail.

 

[pz1975]

Good news for the EV movement overall. Mitsubishi aiming for 20% of its cars as EV or hybrid by 2020. Hopefully they can do it.

The Motor Report: Auto News And Reviews

 

[hcsharp]

Good news for the EV movement overall. Mitsubishi aiming for 20% of its cars as EV or hybrid by 2020. Hopefully they can do it.

The Motor Report: Auto News And Reviews

Is this supposed to be a lofty goal? Not sure how this relates to TSLA Long-Term fundamentals, except to show that Tesla gets it while other automakers don't. Most of the reason they are aiming for 20% is because they have to comply with fuel efficiency regulations.

 

[pz1975]

Is this supposed to be a lofty goal? Not sure how this relates to TSLA Long-Term fundamentals, except to show that Tesla gets it while other automakers don't. Most of the reason they are aiming for 20% is because they have to comply with fuel efficiency regulations.

Didn't know where else to put it!

I agree it's a drop in the bucket relative to Tesla but any shift towards more EV's is a good thing to me.

 

[hcsharp]

Didn't know where else to put it!

I agree it's a drop in the bucket relative to Tesla but any shift towards more EV's is a good thing to me.

Mitsu is anticipating that most of those will be hybrids. Not a very ambitious goal if you ask me. And they're not even doing it because they want to.

 

[surfside]

2nd gigafactory

interesting color today at the end of the article about the new goldman sachs report:

An exciting future
Tesla's management believes that it will need to build a new assembly plant and gigafactory within the next four years, either in Europe or Asia.

the second new assembly plant is not all that surprising (i'm sure elon has mentioned the need to build an additional plant at some point), but i found it interesting that they are already talking about a second gigafactory...

surfside

 

[SteveG3]

interesting color today at the end of the article about the new goldman sachs report:



the second new assembly plant is not all that surprising (i'm sure elon has mentioned the need to build an additional plant at some point), but i found it interesting that they are already talking about a second gigafactory...

surfside

thanks Surfside. This may be quite a find you've shared.

"Tesla's management believes that it will need to build a new assembly plant and gigafactory within the next four years, either in Europe or Asia."


(bolding mine)

I think we've all taken it for granted since the Gigafactory announcement that 500K would be total production for 2020. if this reporting of what Goldman Sachs said is an accurate reflection of Tesla's plans, by 2020, they could very well be looking at quite a higher number than 500K vehicles/year. again, this is basically third hand, an article about Goldman Sachs talking to Tesla, but this could be the first hint of substantial fundamental upside.

I strongly recommend reading the link from Surfside. there's a bunch of other details, but the other one that popped out at me was:

"Tesla is aiming for a gross margin of 25 percent on the Gen III as opposed to 30 percent for the whole company."

25% gross margin on Gen III would be great, perhaps one or two of the most bullish analysts have such a high number, but from what I remember none of them do.

I guess we'll here follow up on these two points on next month's call, if not sooner.