Looking for gossip

[lolachampcar]

Its getting closer to time to replace the P85DL so I'm looking for gossip, inside info leaks and the like for things like refreshes, battery size increases and the like. The S is getting long in the tooth apart from the (very nice) constant improvements. It would seem it is about time for another wholesale change.

Anyone hearing anything?

Thanks,
Bill

PS
I seem to have lost the ability to post on TM. Anyone else had a problem where they can try to start a new thread only to have the post and preview buttons at the bottom be non-functional?

 

[HankLloydRight]

I hear there's a new Intel based MCU coming.

But seriously, pretty much any and all gossip/speculation is already posted on TMC, I don't think there's any more. If someone had actual, real inside information you're looking for, I don't think they'd be posting it here, or at least not in public.

The "refresh" has been a constant rumor going on two years now. Eventually it will be true.

Battery sizes is anyone's guess, but lots of speculation on that despite Elon tweeting they're not pushing above 100kWh anytime soon.

 

[NDR]

End of year/early 2019
Bigger battery. Refreshed interior. Magnetic shocks

 

[lolachampcar]

Really like the battery part if true. I just did a trip with my wife's fish lips 90 and seeing 300 W-Hr/mile @75 with the AC on was WONDERFUL. It sure makes road tripping so much easier.

 

[yak-55]

Its getting closer to time to replace the P85DL so I'm looking for gossip, inside info leaks and the like for things like refreshes, battery size increases and the like. The S is getting long in the tooth apart from the (very nice) constant improvements. It would seem it is about time for another wholesale change.

Anyone hearing anything?

Thanks,
Bill

Bill,
I hear there is a new Roadster on its way. Reportedly has a BIG battery.
yak

 

[lolachampcar]

U
R
Bad


Actually, I'll take one if it can sit on the other side of a SeeSaw with a MP4-12C and balance

 

[P85Dave]

Welcome to the party!

We are all waiting to trade in our cars when the Model S update is announced. Until then, I don't see a compelling reason to opt for a current Tesla offering as nice as the the MCU update is. Most of all, I'd hate to miss out on a major update by a few months!

 

[Tozz]

I wouldn't hold off buying now. A few reasons:

- Elon has stated the 100 kWh battery will be the max. for a few years to come. There are no plans to use the M3 cells in the MS/MX. This is also difficult in the current design, as the new cells are higher and it would require an change to the car's frame, which is significant.

- I believe the contract for the cells used in the MS/MX with Panasonic isn't fulfilled yet. This too makes bigger batteries unlikely, assuming it's impossible to cramp more cells in the current pack design. The 100 pack is already filled to the max and required a cooling redesign in the pack.

- The new Intel MCU is a sign (atleast thats how I feel) that a complete new interior design isn't coming very soon (atleast not in the by users predicted Q2 2018). It doesn't make much sense to update the MCU (key component of the car) if you're going to change the entire design a few weeks later. The MCU itself requires lots of other changes, such as new antenna's (5g wifi) in the mirror, new wiring, new CID (which is now just a screen, no longer a separate computer as it was with the Tegra MCU)

In the end, its all speculation by everyone and nobody knows for sure.

 

[P85Dave]

In the end, its all speculation by everyone and nobody knows for sure.

That's why we should wait for the update because for all the speculation, we KNOW that an update is around the corner. There will be a very significant devaluation of cars bought right before the update.

 

[Tozz]

But you dont know when its coming. Could be tomorrow, could be next year, could be in 5 years.
The truth is, nobody knows.

Me personally made the decision to cancel my order if the refresh happens as long as my order hasn't been delivered. I would have cancelled to get the new MCU, but my SA confirmed I'll get the new MCU

But I wouldn't recommend holding off your order, as nobody knows when its going to happen.

Also, the depreciation differs from country to country. In my country for example, buying a Tesla as a business for private use becomes much much more expensive after 2018. In 2021 it becomes even more expensive. So I don't really think the depreciation would be that bad, because I suspect the sales of Tesla MS to drop more than 70% after 2018 in my country. The car is simply too expensive. It'll be in the same price range as a BMW 7 or Audi A8. That should help with the depreciation of current cars.

 

[HankLloydRight]

That's why we should wait for the update because for all the speculation, we KNOW that an update is around the corner. There will be a very significant devaluation of cars bought right before the update.

But like Tozz said above, we really don't know that an update is "around the corner."

But you dont know when its coming. Could be tomorrow, could be next year, could be in 5 years.

The truth is, nobody knows.

Exactly.

If I were in the market for a new MS/MX today, and knowing what I know watching the market for years, I personally would wait until the June which is the estimated delivery times for orders made today. As most people know, I'm hugely skeptical of the "a refresh is coming! a refresh is coming" mantras heard so often around here, but due to the slowdown of production, I feel that something different is coming in that time frame. I don't think it's a bigger battery. Since they just revamped the MCU in its current form factor, I can't believe they would be moving MS/MX to the single center touchscreen and no instrument cluster design like M3... seems like a big waste of engineering to do that for just a few months.. the MCU2 form factor and IC is here to stay for quite some time. That leaves an interior refresh, which I don't believe is needed, since the interior is pretty darn good already. The only change I see would be another nosecone refresh more like the Model 3 (yes, I know that's controversial!).

The truth is, nobody knows.

But if it were me, I'd wait until June when MS/MX production ramps up again and then order.

Edit to add: But not get into another cycle of waiting three more months.. you'll never buy a new car. At some point, you just have to jump in and deal with whatever comes down the line next, even if it's one day later.

 

[lolachampcar]

50K miles so I'm good anywhere from now to 80K; In short, I've got time.

 

[mkspeedr]

I have my fingers crossed an inside scoop is posted with real news (w/timeline).

In June there will be a white P100D X in my garage and suddenly the soccer mom will have the faster car (not vehicle). The P85D will need to be upgraded quickly...

 

[lolachampcar]

Thumbs up on the priorities!

 

[malcolm]

Indoor plumbing.

It's gonna be big.

 

[Ronist]

Tesla is expecting a large number of leased vehicles to return to Tesla in the next 6-9 months. It's not a good time for Tesla to update the car significantly now to cause these cars to depreciate too much.

 

[Kandiru]

Welcome to the party!

We are all waiting to trade in our cars when the Model S update is announced. Until then, I don't see a compelling reason to opt for a current Tesla offering as nice as the the MCU update is. Most of all, I'd hate to miss out on a major update by a few months!

Finally, the voice of reason.

 

[deonb]

Indoor plumbing.

It's gonna be big.

Plastics

 

[HumanGenome]

New MCU - so that means we're not seeing a refreshed center console any time soon

AP 2.5 was released a few months ago. Rumors point to Tesla working on their own chip. That is likely very far down the line.

100 maximum possible size pack (as someone mentioned above)

I don't imagine any more big improvements being made to this generation of S/X. P100D will remain king for a while it seems.