Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

[daniel]

Dude, it's just a car.

But what a car!

I automatically double any timeline projections Elon gives. ...

Crazy to think about how gullible I was in regard to Tesla and Elon in 2016 ...

I think it was 2006 when I became aware of Tesla and flew down to SF and took a train to the Tesla headquarters to see the prototype Roadster. They gave me a ride (didn't let me drive it) and I told them I thought the two-speed transaxle was a bad idea. Eventually they produced a fabulous car, but they've never been able to meet a deadline.

What's interesting, though, is that after I put down my money to reserve the Model 3 on April 1, 2016, I posted on another chat board that I had reserved a car that would be delivered in two years. They beat that by one month. What they failed to do was ramp up production fast enough to meet the demand. Another thing they like to do is tout the base price in the same page that they tout the maximum range and fastest zero-to-sixty. And I do think that the lack of a fully-polished and well-thought-out interface on the early cars was sloppy.

But it's a fabulous car with performance specs way above its price range and the interface will be a lot better once they finally get the software all sorted out. Postponing the $35K version is understandable, given the finances, but the impatience of people who can't, or don't want to spend $50K is understandable as well.

 

[voip-ninja]

But what a car!





I think it was 2006 when I became aware of Tesla and flew down to SF and took a train to the Tesla headquarters to see the prototype Roadster. They gave me a ride (didn't let me drive it) and I told them I thought the two-speed transaxle was a bad idea. Eventually they produced a fabulous car, but they've never been able to meet a deadline.

What's interesting, though, is that after I put down my money to reserve the Model 3 on April 1, 2016, I posted on another chat board that I had reserved a car that would be delivered in two years. They beat that by one month. What they failed to do was ramp up production fast enough to meet the demand. Another thing they like to do is tout the base price in the same page that they tout the maximum range and fastest zero-to-sixty. And I do think that the lack of a fully-polished and well-thought-out interface on the early cars was sloppy.

But it's a fabulous car with performance specs way above its price range and the interface will be a lot better once they finally get the software all sorted out. Postponing the $35K version is understandable, given the finances, but the impatience of people who can't, or don't want to spend $50K is understandable as well.

I'm curious where you feel it is outperforming cars "way above" its price range and what metrics you are using for that comparison. The only area I can think of where this is true is autonomy.

At $50,000 you are competing with Audi S4, BMW 340i, Mercedes C43 and Cadillac ATS. All of those cars are turning in very similar 0-60, quarter mile and stopping performance to what we are seeing from Tesla with their Model 3.

Once you go "way above" the $50,000 you are getting into Audi RS4, BMW M3, etc. Those cars significantly outperform the Model 3 and can be taken to an all day track event without having to tow your car to the dealer for a $3,000 brake replacement.

 

[tmoz]

I think I'd get the all decked out version, AWD, but the catch is my wife doesn't want to trade in the 2012 PiP for the Model 3. Maybe one of our kids will be ready for the model 3 in the next year. I need a Chevy Colorado (i.e., cheap as you can get pickup truck) EV replacement. I think the only chance of that is going to be the full blown luxury Tesla pickup truck. I just want a dirty functional pickup truck that can drive on gravel roads and kick up rocks everywhere. Don't think that will happen soon either.

 

[slipnslider]

I was losing enthusiasm too, because of the prioritizing of expensive models over the SR, and because of bad design choices. Then I rented one on turo and loved it. Now I'm pretty sure I'll buy one. That said, it still has some big flaws.

First - the glass roof is stupid. There's a reason no one has put glass roofs on cars before tesla - not because they didn't have the vision or capability, but because glass roofs are stupid. They have to either be tinted so dark that it ruins the view, or you roast your head in the sunlight. The glass should be lightly tinted with a retractable opaque sun shade. And in the pursuit of this massive glass roof design, the car was shaped to not allow a hatchback, which it definitely should have.

Second - the phone key is stupid. A solution in search of a problem. It will always be less reliable than a fob, will require troubleshooting and updating, and is just a stupid gimmick meant to appeal to the millennial phoneosexuals. Fine let them use their phones, but they should also provide a fob for people who don't want to spend their free time troubleshooting their phone keys. And can you imagine having a 10 year old model 3 in the year 2028, and trying to get a 2028 phone to work properly with a 2018 car? Good luck with that. You'll be stuck using the finicky annoying key card.

Third - it really needs a HUD - just for some basic info - next nav instruction, turn signals, high beams, speed.

Some of the material choices are bad - the piano black interior LOOKS cool, but scratches and smudges too easily. Can't believe this was overlooked by the entire design team.
And why are the base wheels GREY? Grey only matches one of the body colors. Silver would have matched them all. Seems like maybe they were made grey to be uglier and sell more upgraded wheels, which are silver.
And the charge port door feels like a flimsy child's toy. I will be amazed if someone owns one that never breaks. I predict they will be the model 3's equivalent of the pop out door handles on the model S - something every owner has to repair over and over again.
And the door handles themselves are not a great design. I can open my current car with one finger if I've got stuff in my hands. The model 3 handles offer far fewer ways to open it.

All that being said, the car is awesome. Drives like a dream. The PUP stereo is the best I've ever heard. I must have it. But I really hate that I have to get the stupid pointless glass roof to get the good stereo.

After renting the model 3, my enthusiasm is higher than before. I might even buy the LR to get the full tax credit, even though I know tesla is using the expiring credit to force people like me to spend more than they wanted in order to get the credit, and that feels sleazy as hell.

 

[dhrivnak]

Get a dog...or a girlfriend...or a hobby...something. LOL!

Dan

No TEG has a great hobby as the go to for all questions on Tesla Roadsters. Not sure how he does it but the man is a gold mine.

 

[ggies07]

Second - the phone key is stupid. A solution in search of a problem. It will always be less reliable than a fob, will require troubleshooting and updating, and is just a stupid gimmick meant to appeal to the millennial phoneosexuals. Fine let them use their phones, but they should also provide a fob for people who don't want to spend their free time troubleshooting their phone keys. And can you imagine having a 10 year old model 3 in the year 2028, and trying to get a 2028 phone to work properly with a 2018 car? Good luck with that. You'll be stuck using the finicky annoying key card.

I'm not sure you understand the 3 then....the car is designed so that once full autonomy is working, you can rent your car out under the Tesla Network....therefore using a phone to unlock solves the "key" problem....it's in the Master Plan 2 that Elon published.

 

[SomeJoe7777]

Second - the phone key is stupid. A solution in search of a problem. It will always be less reliable than a fob, will require troubleshooting and updating, and is just a stupid gimmick meant to appeal to the millennial phoneosexuals. Fine let them use their phones, but they should also provide a fob for people who don't want to spend their free time troubleshooting their phone keys. And can you imagine having a 10 year old model 3 in the year 2028, and trying to get a 2028 phone to work properly with a 2018 car? Good luck with that. You'll be stuck using the finicky annoying key card.

It's not stupid. It solves several problems that other car manufacturers don't want to bother to address.

1. Security. Normal key fobs are vulnerable to the signal repeater attacks. Watch theives steal a car this way. You have to have a challenge-authentication protocol between the keyfob and the car to prevent this. That makes the keyfobs expensive as hell.

2. Easy to add/delete keys -- just go to the touchscreen.

3. Renting the car out? Add the renter's phone ... delete it when you get the car back.

4. Lose your phone or get it stolen? Delete it, add your new one.

5. Change spouses? Delete old spouse's phone, add new one.


Instead of making people pay $200+ for a keyfob, they made the cost $0. That's not stupid, that's genius.

I'm sure Tesla could probably make a dedicated keyfob for you. But would you pay the extra $300 for it?

 

[voip-ninja]

I'm not sure you understand the 3 then....the car is designed so that once full autonomy is working, you can rent your car out under the Tesla Network....therefore using a phone to unlock solves the "key" problem....it's in the Master Plan 2 that Elon published.

I'm not sure you understand how often Elon's claims don't pan out or how unlikely it is that full autonomy will ever be possible on the current generation of technology in these cars.

 

[TEG]

I was losing enthusiasm too, because of the prioritizing of expensive models over the SR, and because of bad design choices. Then I rented one on turo and loved it. Now I'm pretty sure I'll buy one. That said, it still has some big flaws.

First - the glass roof is stupid. There's a reason no one has put glass roofs on cars before tesla - not because they didn't have the vision or capability, but because glass roofs are stupid. They have to either be tinted so dark that it ruins the view, or you roast your head in the sunlight. The glass should be lightly tinted with a retractable opaque sun shade. And in the pursuit of this massive glass roof design, the car was shaped to not allow a hatchback, which it definitely should have.

Second - the phone key is stupid. A solution in search of a problem. It will always be less reliable than a fob, will require troubleshooting and updating, and is just a stupid gimmick meant to appeal to the millennial phoneosexuals. Fine let them use their phones, but they should also provide a fob for people who don't want to spend their free time troubleshooting their phone keys. And can you imagine having a 10 year old model 3 in the year 2028, and trying to get a 2028 phone to work properly with a 2018 car? Good luck with that. You'll be stuck using the finicky annoying key card.

Third - it really needs a HUD - just for some basic info - next nav instruction, turn signals, high beams, speed.

Some of the material choices are bad - the piano black interior LOOKS cool, but scratches and smudges too easily. Can't believe this was overlooked by the entire design team.
And why are the base wheels GREY? Grey only matches one of the body colors. Silver would have matched them all. Seems like maybe they were made grey to be uglier and sell more upgraded wheels, which are silver.
And the charge port door feels like a flimsy child's toy. I will be amazed if someone owns one that never breaks. I predict they will be the model 3's equivalent of the pop out door handles on the model S - something every owner has to repair over and over again.
And the door handles themselves are not a great design. I can open my current car with one finger if I've got stuff in my hands. The model 3 handles offer far fewer ways to open it.

All that being said, the car is awesome. Drives like a dream. The PUP stereo is the best I've ever heard. I must have it. But I really hate that I have to get the stupid pointless glass roof to get the good stereo.

After renting the model 3, my enthusiasm is higher than before. I might even buy the LR to get the full tax credit, even though I know tesla is using the expiring credit to force people like me to spend more than they wanted in order to get the credit, and that feels sleazy as hell.

I really like the glass roof and the gray wheels, but otherwise agree with what you said.

(I do plan to get the paint color that matches the wheels though.)

I bet there will be an aftermarket in different colored aero wheel covers.

 

[ggies07]

I'm not sure you understand how often Elon's claims don't pan out or how unlikely it is that full autonomy will ever be possible on the current generation of technology in these cars.

really negative nancy? the new AP update begs to differ....

 

[voip-ninja]

really negative nancy? the new AP update begs to differ....

The new AP update does not bring "full autonomy" or anything even close to it.

Not negative, realist.

 

[ggies07]

The new AP update does not bring "full autonomy" or anything even close to it.

Not negative, realist.

yes, obviously...I meant it as a stepping stone in the right direction.

 

[SomeJoe7777]

how unlikely it is that full autonomy will ever be possible on the current generation of technology in these cars.

It remains to be seen, obviously. However, both the Nividia engineers as well as Tesla engineers believe it's possible, and they have done a demo of FSD already.

I think if the situation arises where we will not actually get FSD in the AP2/AP2.5 vehicles, the reason is more likely to be regulatory rather than hardware limitation.

 

[voip-ninja]

It remains to be seen, obviously. However, both the Nividia engineers as well as Tesla engineers believe it's possible, and they have done a demo of FSD already.

I think if the situation arises where we will not actually get FSD in the AP2/AP2.5 vehicles, the reason is more likely to be regulatory rather than hardware limitation.

Yes, I follow news in this area myself.

Demos during good weather and ideal conditions just don't have me convinced. If they want to impress me then park the car in an underground parking garage it has never been to before, and then summon it to someone who wants to rent it out who is several miles away... in the rain... then let that person run around for an hour or two and then have the car return itself to the parking garage and successfully park.

I have high expectations in this area.

They will not be met with current hardware.

 

[daniel]

Notice how all the autonomous cars being tested have big arrays of sensors on the roof of the car? And Tesla thinks they will be able to implement autonomous driving with a few cameras? I am a HUGE Tesla fanboy. Loved my Roadster. Love my 3. Love what Tesla is doing as the leader in electric transportation and as a participant in solar power & storage. But frankly, if a proper FSD can be implemented in my Model 3 I'll eat my hat. It's going to need more and probably better sensors. And with computers getting more powerful every month, I want my FSD car to have the very latest computer technology as well as the very latest sensor technology.

I love Elon Musk for building my cars and for what he's doing for the environment. But when he promises something for next year, I just take that as one of his endearing shortcomings, and I understand he's saying what he hopes, not what he can actually deliver. He'll probably deliver. But it will take a good while longer than he thinks. Once you know that about him, you're good. He delivers, just not on time.

I had a friend in Mexico who had several boyfriends. Her #3 boyfriend was a friend of mine and a really nice guy. If she wanted him to come to her house to visit at 9:00 p.m. she'd ask him to be there at 7:00, because he was always, consistently, two hours late. But a really nice guy and you couldn't want a better friend.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

My guess is that FSD will be safer than a human across the board when it's ready, which will take a while. Other companies are using different sensors, like lidar, that allow their cars to perform better than just radar/cameras, but at the same time, those sensors appear to have some significant blind spots, which i think the recent accident in Arizona is an example of. Roads were built for motorists with eyes, not lidar, which means there are likely more corner cases that it can't pick up and systems based on vision can, although it can perform much better in many other situations.

 

[slipnslider]

I'm not sure you understand the 3 then....the car is designed so that once full autonomy is working, you can rent your car out under the Tesla Network....therefore using a phone to unlock solves the "key" problem....it's in the Master Plan 2 that Elon published.

Providing a fob would not have prevented that. NOT providing a fob condemns every owner to a future of troubleshooting, updating, and annoyances.

 

[slipnslider]

It's not stupid. It solves several problems that other car manufacturers don't want to bother to address.

1. Security. Normal key fobs are vulnerable to the signal repeater attacks. Watch theives steal a car this way. You have to have a challenge-authentication protocol between the keyfob and the car to prevent this. That makes the keyfobs expensive as hell.

2. Easy to add/delete keys -- just go to the touchscreen.

3. Renting the car out? Add the renter's phone ... delete it when you get the car back.

4. Lose your phone or get it stolen? Delete it, add your new one.

5. Change spouses? Delete old spouse's phone, add new one.


Instead of making people pay $200+ for a keyfob, they made the cost $0. That's not stupid, that's genius.

I'm sure Tesla could probably make a dedicated keyfob for you. But would you pay the extra $300 for it?

1. Thieves could just steal your phone or key card and then your car. The stupid phone key system is not theft proof.
2. Providing a fob would not have prevented this.
3. Providing a fob would not have prevented this. And it's easier to just hand the thing to someone.
4. Providing a fob would not have prevented this.
5. Providing a fob would not have prevented this.

If a fob added $200 to the cost of your car, it would also add $200 to the VALUE of your car, and would make it worth at least $200 more when you decide to sell it, because in 10 years that phone key system will be a nightmare to operate.

 

[Carnook]

I'm not sure you understand how often Elon's claims don't pan out or how unlikely it is that full autonomy will ever be possible on the current generation of technology in these cars.

There is no way to be certain that full autonomy will be available on current hardware and I am just working under the assumption that Tesla will either fail or have to do upgrades for customers who have purchased fully autonomy.

Think of it from a logical argument point of view. The facts do not support the conclusion. There are zero fully autonomous vehicles in the world today. Zero. None. Even the most advanced vehicles by Waymo or GM aren't there yet. So if there are no fully autonomous vehicles in use how can anyone be sure the current hardware will meet the needs of a fully autonomous platform? They can't be sure. They can guess. They can bet. But they can't be sure.

 

[N5329K]

It's not stupid. It solves several problems that other car manufacturers don't want to bother to address.

1. Security. Normal key fobs are vulnerable to the signal repeater attacks. Watch theives steal a car this way. You have to have a challenge-authentication protocol between the keyfob and the car to prevent this. That makes the keyfobs expensive as hell.

2. Easy to add/delete keys -- just go to the touchscreen.

3. Renting the car out? Add the renter's phone ... delete it when you get the car back.

4. Lose your phone or get it stolen? Delete it, add your new one.

5. Change spouses? Delete old spouse's phone, add new one.


Instead of making people pay $200+ for a keyfob, they made the cost $0. That's not stupid, that's genius.

I'm sure Tesla could probably make a dedicated keyfob for you. But would you pay the extra $300 for it?

I would buy the fob. The "phone-as-key" might work OK for owners tied to their phones. It doesn't work for owners who are not tied to their phones. Also, it is a wicked complicated way to do a very simple thing. Yes, It works. Sometimes. If "sometimes" is good enough for you, go for it. If "most of the time" is good enough for you, no worries. But. If you want reliability, today, next year, if you don't want to waste a moment wondering "Oh oh, I got a new phone. Will it work?" then it's not a very good solution.