Major 2021 Model X refresh pending [Update: Unveiled January 27, 2021]

[Sonus]

Here are some interesting numbers, for me it explains why they closed the S and X lines.
They had enough of X and S to answer the demand so they closed those lines and shift priorities. If you look at the numbers they produced 16K cars in Q4 and delivered 19K. That means they had 3K manufactured in Q3 that delivered in Q4. They focus on 2020 overall deliveries so there was no need for the X and S production lines to keep going.

 

[cusetownusa]

The Mercedes EQV has 6/7/8 seat configurations and the Model Y 7 seater is coming this year. But the X still has the lowest demand of any Tesla. Even with no real competition, people still don’t buy many of them. If Tesla cancelled the X, it wouldn’t be a real loss to profits.

People don't buy them because of the price amongst some other reasons. 3 row Mid size SUVs are very popular and we just went through the buying process and cross shopped the Model X. I really wanted the Model X but the 3 row version with bucket seats cost $90k before taxes and still lacks (fold flat 2nd row, ventilated front seats, HUD, CarPlay, etc.) things other 3 row Mid Size SUVs have at a price that is $40k cheaper. Tough to justify no matter how much I wanted to go fully electric.

I know a lot of people that came to the same conclusion. Not sure what the answer is...if they aren't able to design a 6/7 seater 3 row SUV at a reasonable price then they would obviously sell a ton. If they can't then you are probably right as it will always be a small volume vehicle.

Unfortunately there is zero alternatives in this segment until VW comes out with their 3 row mid size SUV in 2022 (I believe this is when they said it will be released) that should have a much lower price point. Hopefully Tesla provides a worthy competitor to this VW by then as I would prefer a Tesla over a VW.

 

[46&2]

... and still lacks (folding 2nd row ...

???

 

[cusetownusa]

???

Did I mess up the facts? For some reason I thought the 2nd row doesn't fold flat on the 3 row Model X with bucket seats.

I will admit that I don't know everything about the Model X as the $90k price tag kept me from digging real deep in our decision process and the nearest Sales Center is 4hrs away so never test drove one. If the price was closer to $60k instead of $90k I would have found a way to test drive one.

I suppose I will have to wait for what VW releases in a year or 2 to see if it will be worth trading in the vehicle we just bought.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

???

Did I mess up the facts? For some reason I thought the 2nd row doesn't fold flat on the 3 row Model X with bucket seats.

I will admit that I don't know everything about the Model X as the $90k price tag kept me from digging real deep in our decision process and the nearest Sales Center is 4hrs away so never test drove one. If the price was closer to $60k instead of $90k I would have found a way to test drive one.

I suppose I will have to wait for what VW releases in a year or 2 to see if it will be worth trading in the vehicle we just bought.

The 6 seat Model X doesn't have fold-flat second row. The 5 and 7 seat versions have bench seats in the second row which do fold flat.

 

[shinytop]

You are correct. 2nd row does not fold on six seater.

 

[cusetownusa]

The 6 seat Model X doesn't have fold-flat second row. The 5 and 7 seat versions have bench seats in the second row which do fold flat.

Thanks...that's what I thought.

 

[JamesBrown]

Did I mess up the facts? For some reason I thought the 2nd row doesn't fold flat on the 3 row Model X with bucket seats.

I will admit that I don't know everything about the Model X as the $90k price tag kept me from digging real deep in our decision process and the nearest Sales Center is 4hrs away so never test drove one. If the price was closer to $60k instead of $90k I would have found a way to test drive one.

I suppose I will have to wait for what VW releases in a year or 2 to see if it will be worth trading in the vehicle we just bought.

2nd row captain chairs in 6 seater do not fold flat or recline. The 2nd row bench in the 5 & 7 seat models do fold flat.

The 7 seat VW ID.6 production models have already been spotted on the road undergoing testing. It is expected to be released later this year and have a 435mile range and be 20-30k cheaper than Model X.
https://media.drivingelectric.com/i...ivingelectric/2020-09/vw-id6-spy-shots-10.jpg

 

[msm859]

Or they could just cancel the X all together. It is is the lowest demand of all the lines and the highest production cost. The most efficient thing Tesla could do is release the S Plaid and retire the X.
Still the fact the Tesla has been allowing MS Plaid pre-orders for more than 3 months now, MS Plaids have been seen being tested, and not once single spotting or website update for the X. All signs are currently pointing to the X not getting the Plaid update.
As a 2 X household, I am really hoping I am wrong here. I would hate to see the X get cancelled, but that is just what I am inferring from the current data.

How do you know the "X" is the lowest demand. I recall seeing numbers that indicate the X actually outsells the S. I also recall seeing a tweet some time ago talking about the Plaid drivetrain applying to both the X and S.

 

[JamesBrown]

How do you know the "X" is the lowest demand. I recall seeing numbers that indicate the X actually outsells the S. I also recall seeing a tweet some time ago talking about the Plaid drivetrain applying to both the X and S.

I was going off InsideEVs, but I cannot claim to know for a fact.

 

[46&2]

Did I mess up the facts? For some reason I thought the 2nd row doesn't fold flat on the 3 row Model X with bucket seats.

Sorry, my fault, I didn't realize you were speaking about the 6 seater. I wasn't familiar with the term "bucket seat". I know these are not foldable.

I really was thinking you were speaking about 7 seaters, that other companies offer. Sorry again!

 

[flar]

I was going off InsideEVs, but I cannot claim to know for a fact.

Looking at Q2/3/4 of 2019 it looks like the X was outselling the S with the X selling around 5K and the S around 4K.

According to the page where you seem to have gotten those graphs: U.S. Tesla Sales Graphed Through Q4 2019 the X outsold S 5500 to 3750 in Q4/2019 and X outsold S 19k to 14k for all of 2019.

Where S has outsold X is in total cumulative sales, but the S has been on sale for 3 years longer than X.

 

[cusetownusa]

Sorry, my fault, I didn't realize you were speaking about the 6 seater. I wasn't familiar with the term "bucket seat". I know these are not foldable.

I really was thinking you were speaking about 7 seaters, that other companies offer. Sorry again!

yeah, we were cross shopping other mid size suvs with the captain chairs as we prefer that to the bench seating. Some companies do have 3 seats in the third row to make it a 7 seater but probably more comfortable with just 2.

 

[bayx]

People don't buy them because of the price amongst some other reasons. 3 row Mid size SUVs are very popular and we just went through the buying process and cross shopped the Model X. I really wanted the Model X but the 3 row version with bucket seats cost $90k before taxes and still lacks (fold flat 2nd row, ventilated front seats, HUD, CarPlay, etc.) things other 3 row Mid Size SUVs have at a price that is $40k cheaper. Tough to justify no matter how much I wanted to go fully electric.

I know a lot of people that came to the same conclusion. Not sure what the answer is...if they aren't able to design a 6/7 seater 3 row SUV at a reasonable price then they would obviously sell a ton. If they can't then you are probably right as it will always be a small volume vehicle.

Unfortunately there is zero alternatives in this segment until VW comes out with their 3 row mid size SUV in 2022 (I believe this is when they said it will be released) that should have a much lower price point. Hopefully Tesla provides a worthy competitor to this VW by then as I would prefer a Tesla over a VW.

They also don't buy the MX due to the many problems that are well known with the X and combine that with the higher cost...why would anyone want to spend that kind of $$$ and then have to deal with the problems like the shudder, etc.?

 

[msm859]

Looking at Q2/3/4 of 2019 it looks like the X was outselling the S with the X selling around 5K and the S around 4K.

According to the page where you seem to have gotten those graphs: U.S. Tesla Sales Graphed Through Q4 2019 the X outsold S 5500 to 3750 in Q4/2019 and X outsold S 19k to 14k for all of 2019.

Where S has outsold X is in total cumulative sales, but the S has been on sale for 3 years longer than X.

My brief research looks like the last 3 years 2018 - 2020 the X actually has more sales than the S - although close. Seems the synergy of both models would Dictate keeping both.

 

[skybluecgreen]

View attachment 624168

Here are some interesting numbers, for me it explains why they closed the S and X lines.
They had enough of X and S to answer the demand so they closed those lines and shift priorities. If you look at the numbers they produced 16K cars in Q4 and delivered 19K. That means they had 3K manufactured in Q3 that delivered in Q4. They focus on 2020 overall deliveries so there was no need for the X and S production lines to keep going.

Well I ordered the X on December 7 and the sales rep said I would get it at the end of December but I did not (I live in Los Angeles.) The rep went radio silent and on Jan 1 Tesla noted on my order page that expected delivery was now Feb 15 - March 15. If you look at the X order/delivery section on this forum there are a number of others in the US who have similar stories.

So they did not meet the X demand. Since they could have stayed open that last week to make my car my deduction is that Tesla purposely held off on the last orders so as to disappoint less customers that got the current X once they saw the refreshed version. Certainly nothing definitive but together with the multiple clues that have been noted in this thread I rate the chance of an X refresh at 80%

 

[Sonus]

Well I ordered the X on December 7 and the sales rep said I would get it at the end of December but I did not (I live in Los Angeles.) The rep went radio silent and on Jan 1 Tesla noted on my order page that expected delivery was now Feb 15 - March 15. If you look at the X order/delivery section on this forum there are a number of others in the US who have similar stories.

So they did not meet the X demand. Since they could have stayed open that last week to make my car my deduction is that Tesla purposely held off on the last orders so as to disappoint less customers that got the current X once they saw the refreshed version. Certainly nothing definitive but together with the multiple clues that have been noted in this thread I rate the chance of an X refresh at 80%

Well, I ordered my X around the end of Oct got it days later. My neighbor saw the car and ordered his around mid Dec and got it 2 days later.
Tesla is known for issues and poor customer service, I wouldn't read too much into your situation and assume your rep just messed up.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Well, I ordered my X around the end of Oct got it days later. My neighbor saw the car and ordered his around mid Dec i and got it 2 days later.
Tesla is known for issues and poor customer service, I wouldn't read too much into your situation and assume your rep just messed up.[/QUOTE

I don't think your October delivery is relevant but your neighbor was matched with his car awfully quickly. Maybe because he lives so close he was prioritized or maybe he got an existing inventory model. I have had excellent customer service from Tesla since I set up delivery for my 2018 Model 3 and based on other reports (Model X January Deliveries/Advisor Ghosting ) I think there is more to it than I just slipped through the cracks.

And to add- if they had made enough Xs but Tesla just couldn't get the cars to everyone who ordered them in December why not find one out there for me in early January? Clearly Tesla did not make enough Xs to meet orders. It could be just because of logistic mistakes, I think it was purposeful.

 

[msm859]

They also don't buy the MX due to the many problems that are well known with the X and combine that with the higher cost...why would anyone want to spend that kind of $$$ and then have to deal with the problems like the shudder, etc.?

Assuming your question was not rhetorical, I bought a 2020 Model X last December 2019. One year and 20k miles have not had to deal with any problems or shudder, etc. And for anyone with a business with the X you get the section 179 bonus depreciation - making it perhaps the most affordable Tesla.

 

[46&2]

Isn't it the same in the U.S.: before you can deduct any Dollar from your tax relevant income, it has TO BE SPENT?

So different tax systems/handlings allow for more or less (all / any) of your expenses to be deductible. But you've got to SPEND.