Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[stopcrazypp]

Again maps are maps and everyone has access to maps plus all cities in the uses have about the same details on all the mapping services. Waymo uses HD mapping but that is unrelated to what Tesla is doing. There is no regulations in the US and I highly doubt there is in China either that you must HD map roads first and then use that data to drive.

EDIT: I think you may have a misunderstanding of what HD maps are.

Probably talking about this:
"In China, all intelligent driving systems are required to obtain a mapping qualification before they can operate on public roads. Foreign firms need to partner with domestic companies that have obtained the license."

Baidu, Tesla agree on mapping deal for FSD in China, sources say

BEIJING (Reuters) -Baidu, China's major internet search company, reached an agreement with Tesla to grant the car company access to its mapping license for data collection on China's public roads, two people familiar with the matter said. The deal clears a final regulatory hurdle for Tesla's...

sg.news.yahoo.com

That said, that doesn't mean an HD map is required. For example, from Baidu's presentation, Tesla is only using a midrange map designed for ADAS.

This article summarizes some of the various mapping licenses in China and notes many companies employing Urban NOA (AKA door to door L2, AKA systems like FSDS) have opted not to have HD maps, but rather generate one on the fly.

Global and China Autonomous Driving Map Industry Report 2024: Emerging Carmakers Take the Lead in Launching 'Lightweight Map' Solutions

Dublin, March 05, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Autonomous Driving Map Industry Report, 2024" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.As the supervision of HD map qualifications tightens, issues such as map collection cost, update frequency, and coverage stand out. Amid the...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[gtg465x]

Tesla needs to duplicate the Spark EV. This Is The Way.

This was the pinnacle of small EVs in the US and nothing better has come along since.

Four doors and way shorter than anything currently in the US EV market.

Also kinda peppy. I don’t have one in my garage for nothing.

The real range of 45-50 miles isn’t great but Tesla can work on that.

i suppose it could be wider? Hard to improve on perfection.

I could be confusing it with another tiny car, but I'm pretty sure a rental car place at an airport tried to give me an ICE Spark about a decade ago when I had selected "Compact - similar to Honda Civic" when I made the reservation. We literally were not able to fit our luggage in it lmao.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I could be confusing it with another tiny car, but I'm pretty sure a rental car place at an airport tried to give me an ICE Spark about a decade ago when I had selected "Compact - similar to Honda Civic" when I made the reservation. We literally were not able to fit our luggage in it lmao.

It is a great car. Not comparable to a Civic.

 

[JulienW]

Probably talking about this:
"In China, all intelligent driving systems are required to obtain a mapping qualification before they can operate on public roads. Foreign firms need to partner with domestic companies that have obtained the license."...

Yeah, but of course that is just maps for route navigation. This is just China being very protectionist and only wants Chinese companies using Chinese info to be used.

Just a down and dirty on what HD maps are for Ib92677. Waymo first drives on the streets with a human driver. It is using all the cameras/radar/LIDAR to scan everything from curbs to fire hydrants to trash cans to light posts and ALL details even temporary like partial lane closures. This data becomes Waymo's HD maps (proprietary data) and sent to all other Waymo's. And as a Waymos drives down that same road it is dynamically updating the HD mapping data and is sent to the other Waymo's. Tesla or NO other compony has any access to Waymo's proprietary HD maps. Same can be said for Cruse or any other compony that makes/uses HD maps.

​

 

[DrChaos]

Probably talking about this:
"In China, all intelligent driving systems are required to obtain a mapping qualification before they can operate on public roads. Foreign firms need to partner with domestic companies that have obtained the license."

Baidu, Tesla agree on mapping deal for FSD in China, sources say

BEIJING (Reuters) -Baidu, China's major internet search company, reached an agreement with Tesla to grant the car company access to its mapping license for data collection on China's public roads, two people familiar with the matter said. The deal clears a final regulatory hurdle for Tesla's...

sg.news.yahoo.com

I suspect in China's case it means "you are not allowed to make or own your own maps, only what government approved vendors says is the map".

USSR famously had intentionally deceptive maps for internal use.

 

[lb92677]

I suppose I do have misunderstanding about it. It’ll be interesting to see what will be required when Tesla has their robotaxi reveal on August 8th

 

[DrChaos]

I suppose I do have misunderstanding about it. It’ll be interesting to see what will be required when Tesla has their robotaxi reveal on August 8th

gullibility

 

[STARR X]

Haven’t read through this whole thread but wanted to post what I think & hope for 8/8.

- 4 seater
- Stainless-steel
- Drive by wire
- 48 volt
- full blown entertainment system
- Built on CyberTruck line
- Tesla rideshare app shown/released
- Drivers using FSD will be the first step
- Once true robotaxis is in the position to be tested, the front seats will rotate 180 degrees to allow for 4 people to ride while facing each other.

 

[ThomasD]

It should be easy to build and cheap to manufacture. Now Service Centers will be tied up with repairing and cleaning these vehicles

 

[aataskin]

Not using the radars, not using convolutional neural nets.. Is this maybe why it's taken eight years so far, and counting?

Elon Musk Is Feuding With ‘AI Godfather’ Yann LeCun (Again)—Here's Why

“You don’t seem to understand how research works,” AI godfather Yann LeCun told Musk, branding him a conspiracy theorist with “vengeful politics.”

www.forbes.com

 

[diplomat33]

Not using the radars, not using convolutional neural nets.. Is this maybe why it's taken eight years so far, and counting?

Elon Musk Is Feuding With ‘AI Godfather’ Yann LeCun (Again)—Here's Why

“You don’t seem to understand how research works,” AI godfather Yann LeCun told Musk, branding him a conspiracy theorist with “vengeful politics.”

www.forbes.com

Tesla used radar and CNNs before. Tesla got rid of radar when Tesla's computer vision had improved to the point where Elon felt that it rendered radar obsolete. And Elon is not saying that Tesla never used CNNs. Rather, he is saying that Tesla do not use CNNs now. I think Elon is claiming that Tesla got rid of CNNs when they switched to V12's E2E architecture.

 

[aataskin]

Tesla used radar and CNNs before. Tesla got rid of radar when Tesla's computer vision had improved to the point where Elon felt that it rendered radar obsolete. And Elon is not saying that Tesla never used CNNs. Rather, he is saying that Tesla do not use CNNs now. I think Elon is claiming that Tesla got rid of CNNs when they switched to V12's E2E architecture.

Not quite. They got rid of the radar because Elon was told that it may be hard to incorporate radar into the Vision architecture (and because it was obviously cheaper). Vision never got to the point of being as good (and def as reliable) as it could have been if the radar was still there:

 

[uscbucsfan]

Tesla used radar and CNNs before. Tesla got rid of radar when Tesla's computer vision had improved to the point where Elon felt that it rendered radar obsolete. And Elon is not saying that Tesla never used CNNs. Rather, he is saying that Tesla do not use CNNs now. I think Elon is claiming that Tesla got rid of CNNs when they switched to V12's E2E architecture.

Elon didn't say they aren't using CNNs, just that they aren't using them much these days.

 

[diplomat33]

Not quite. They got rid of the radar because Elon was told that it may be hard to incorporate radar into the Vision architecture (and because it was obviously cheaper). Vision never got to the point of being as good (and def as reliable) as it could have been if the radar was still there:

Fair points. Yes, cost is also a factor. I was simply echoing what I think Elon's belief is that vision-only renders radar obsolete. The idea is that vision can do everything radar can do and more so why bother with radar. Personally, I don't agree with that but I think that is Elon's view point.

 

[aataskin]

Fair points. Yes, cost is also a factor. I was simply echoing what I think Elon's belief is that vision-only renders radar obsolete. The idea is that vision can do everything radar can do and more so why bother with radar. Personally, I don't agree with that but I think that is Elon's view point.

I also think that the idea was to develop the tech that gives you human level of performance that is as independent of the vehicle geometry as possible and so can be licensed out to other manufacturers. Two or three cameras relatively close to each other is easy to replicate on any car which is why this was given the priority. Especially since it sounded like the AI science is nearly there. But as LeCun is pointing out research does not progress linearly, sometimes you may have to wait a long time for the next breakthrough, and in Tesla's case we are basically still waiting..

 

[DrChaos]

Tesla used radar and CNNs before. Tesla got rid of radar when Tesla's computer vision had improved to the point where Elon felt that it rendered radar obsolete.

Elon got rid of it because of parts shortage during pandemic and ordered his engineers to deal with it. The vision had NOT at all improved enough to make the radar obsolete, and that shouldn't be Elon's call anyway. Elon lied about it that it was for performance when it obvious to people testing it that it wasn't.

And Elon is not saying that Tesla never used CNNs. Rather, he is saying that Tesla do not use CNNs now. I think Elon is claiming that Tesla got rid of CNNs when they switched to V12's E2E architecture.

Elon is confused and wrong or being an ass and trying to upmanship a Turing award winner. There are unquestionably convolutional layers in the video perception side---things are complex now with vision transformers. The E2E change was for policy control, not perception.

 

[enemji]

Haven’t read through this whole thread but wanted to post what I think & hope for 8/8.

- 4 seater
- Stainless-steel
- Drive by wire
- 48 volt
- full blown entertainment system
- Built on CyberTruck line
- Tesla rideshare app shown/released
- Drivers using FSD will be the first step
- Once true robotaxis is in the position to be tested, the front seats will rotate 180 degrees to allow for 4 people to ride while facing each other.

It will be a minivan based on the Model 3/Y, simply because so far FSDs has worked great on that model.

 

[aataskin]

It will be a minivan based on the Model 3/Y, simply because so far FSDs has worked great on that model.

If it's worked so great on 3/Y then why not roll it out to 3/Y? Just as promised years ago..

Or maybe that's what we hear on 8/8? That hey guys, remember I said you will be able to rent out your Teslas as robotaxis? Well the day has come. Not in two weeks, as always, not in the near future - no, today, on the 8/8 we are rolling out FSD that is finally good enough to be just FSD.

Is that what you are saying?

 

[FloridaJohn]

My prediction is whatever the robotaxi equivalent to this is:

 

[enemji]

If it's worked so great on 3/Y then why not roll it out to 3/Y? Just as promised years ago..

That is what is happening right now