I worry a bit about the dramatic stock price drop over the last week and whether this is based on info leaking. However, the price drop could be from a number of factors, including shorts just playing the low volume Holiday game. It could also be from the fact that we somewhat know that deliveries will not be close to the 5,000 number that some on the sell-side are trying to throw around. We have a sense of the max delivery number based on Vin #s. And, as we all know, Vin #s are not always a great tool for figuring the upper end of the delivery #s (see Q3). What I am hoping is that the signs we have been seeing on production (including the registering of thousands of Vins and filled lots of M3s) playout for a good news on the production #, the “bottleneck” front, and the move up the S curve. This to me, along with S and X #s, will be what drives stock price until earnings or other interim news. Unfortunately, no matter the #s, the sell-side will try to spin negatively the info that comes out this week (they already set the stage last week). My hope is that the #s and other info to come out this week will make it very challenging for the sell-side to achieve its goal, and, in fact, will make it quite painful for the shorts.
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I just spent some time on the Model 3 forum, reading reviews from previous Tesla owners who just got their Model 3s. This car is definitely a game changer. It is getting me really excited about 2018. I think we close 2018 with an SP of at least 400, and hopefully much higher. I have a buy order for shares for my kids to trigger at 315 tomorrow should the stock start climbing. If it goes significantly lower because Wall Street is still unaware, I will lower the buy target appropriately to catch it on the rebound (trying to avoid catching a falling knife).
The reviews seem to be exceeding all expectations. This car is really a game-changer. We are witnessing one of those rare moments in time when a product changes an entire industry. This is what the shorts and the sell-side are clearly missing.
Of course, anything is possible, but I'm not worried. I think TMC has covered the waterfront of possibilities and keen assessment of probabilities, at least as a general trend upward without limit on a long term basis. Each day's market is only an n of one or a shapshot of popularity as Keynes would have said.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I saw my first Model 3 in the wild. Today my family drove from ATL to Orlando. Spotted the Model 3 at the Lake City and Turkey Lake Superchargers. The proud owner is a SpaceX employee, who got his car last week. The sparse interior feel roomy for the size car. The bridge is striking. Very nice car. I should have asked how the interior compares with the Dragon capsule. This guy would probably know!
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
actually no... if you communicated to shorts (including listening), it'd be very difficult for you to find one that says the MS is a bad car... to the contrary, most (if not all) say that it is a great car. I can't imagine that this extrapolated to assuming the M3 will be a bad car also... making a great car is one factor in being a great auto company... the other factors are quality, price, volume, profit and sustainable demand... and these are the parts of the equation that shorts are negative about.
jelloslug
Active Member
I had the chance to touch and feel a Model 3 on Friday. It certainly lives up to the hype and is a very well though out car, not just a well though out EV.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Stock is up and nobody is talking.
Is everybody still on vacation or do you all have the Flu ?
Is everybody still on vacation or do you all have the Flu ?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So people seem to be loading up prior to the Q4 announcement (or shorts are covering), since we're up 2% now.
Forget deliveries. If Tesla announces Model 3 production at 1,000/wk or greater in the next day or two, TSLA takes off.
Forget deliveries. If Tesla announces Model 3 production at 1,000/wk or greater in the next day or two, TSLA takes off.
im back from vacation (watched even at vacation) but i dont want to get excited too early
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Quiet is good. If TT007 shows up chest pumping and waxing poetic, it may even be time to sell, /s
Eventually some of the ultra bulls will be right, but now is not yet the time. I hope when that time comes they will be too busy counting money than posting on TMC
So, quiet is good.
I bought stock this morning, but the current up means nothing until the Q4 deliveries comes out. If the market doesn't like the numbers, this mornings gains will be erased and then some. I'll be excited if it goes up after the report....
Also, this AM is the first that the 2018 IRA window has been open. I imagine there are some others who, like me, backed up a small truck containing $5,500 and bought the 17 shares that will currently capture.
Yeah, my brother did that.
What's more, there was a real phenomena with the Model S of people getting the car and then buying shares. Granted, the average resources of those buying the Model 3 do not match the Model S, but, right off the bat, the car is going to previous Tesla owners... so pretty much the same group. Of course, for everyone who took delivery of a Model S in 2012-13, there looks to be 10 or more taking delivery of a Model 3 this year... and when they talk to their friends and family about Tesla being the "real deal," that larger circle is up 10X as well.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I mentioned my theory before that it's all about production, and here's why I think that's the case:
The whole world knows that Tesla has tons of orders for the Model 3. And I think everyone realizes Tesla can get those cars in the hands of customers eventually, even if they have to work through some issues to do it. The real drag holding back the TSLA price has been the belief among skeptics that Tesla can't make enough cars at the rate they need to in order to turn a profit.
Very few if any companies go under because they weren't able to get their products delivered to the end customer fast enough.
So significant headway toward the goal of having the ability to make them fast enough is the key goal that the market is looking for, and the key price driver. Basically, poor Q4 financial performance is already priced in, and that's history. Production rate shows future potential.
If Tesla shows a production rate of 1000+ cars/week, we take off. If 500-1000 cars/week, the stock stays where it is until further notice. Less than 500/wk, and we drop a bit.
The whole world knows that Tesla has tons of orders for the Model 3. And I think everyone realizes Tesla can get those cars in the hands of customers eventually, even if they have to work through some issues to do it. The real drag holding back the TSLA price has been the belief among skeptics that Tesla can't make enough cars at the rate they need to in order to turn a profit.
Very few if any companies go under because they weren't able to get their products delivered to the end customer fast enough.
So significant headway toward the goal of having the ability to make them fast enough is the key goal that the market is looking for, and the key price driver. Basically, poor Q4 financial performance is already priced in, and that's history. Production rate shows future potential.
If Tesla shows a production rate of 1000+ cars/week, we take off. If 500-1000 cars/week, the stock stays where it is until further notice. Less than 500/wk, and we drop a bit.
If I am not mistaken Jalopnik is not known to be a Tesla enthusiast. Having that in mind worth reading:
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3-makes-the-future-feel-normal-1821684820
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3-makes-the-future-feel-normal-1821684820
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