TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TheMrX]

Does somebody have more photos of this ''tent'' for GA3? I reread Elon's tweet :

''Amazing work by Tesla team. Built entire new general assembly line in 3 weeks w minimal resources. Love u guys so much! Pic of 1st Model 3 dual motor performance coming off the line …''

I don't get the size of this tent, but I have a feeling (yeah no more than that..) that the tent could just be some kind of exit ramp of GA3....

Edit : Or the tent contains the whole GA3 and that is what Elon is taking about when he wrote ''w minimal ressources'' . Hmmm...

 

[mongo]

Does somebody have more photos of this ''tent'' for GA3? I reread Elon's tweet :

''Amazing work by Tesla team. Built entire new general assembly line in 3 weeks w minimal resources. Love u guys so much! Pic of 1st Model 3 dual motor performance coming off the line …''

I don't get the size of this tent, but I have a feeling (yeah no more than that..) that the tent could just be some kind of exit ramp of GA3....

Edit : Or the tent contains the whole GA3 and that is what Elon is taking about when he wrote ''w minimal ressources'' . Hmmm...

Roughly 900x 120..
Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations
Vs Google maps scale.

 

[pz1975]

This tweet is so intriguing. For a true “short burn” as predicted, just meeting guidance of 5,000 per week should not do it. IMO there must be something else and much bigger that will be announced. As we have all seen, the only kind of announcement that has significantly elevated the stock in the past is very positive financial news.

Announcements of new/updated products and/or plans for new factories have typically led to only a small share price increase or decrease.

The only financial news that hasn’t been announced or predicted before (like Q3/4 profitability) that I can think of that would potentially result in a short squeeze is Q2 profitability or a major new investor or partner (either in the US or China).

 

[STARR X]

Lets not forget that they are probably slowing down M3 deliveries in the USA as well as MS & MX and holding finished product somewhere so not to exceed 200,000 sold in the USA in the 2nd quarter. Then saying that along with their delivery numbers on July 3rd and stating how awesome July is going to be. So it does not matter about the 2nd quarter numbers. They could even said numbers could of been better but “we were looking after our customers”. Most everyone would eat that *sugar* up.

 

[30seconds]

I think the combination of model 3 ramp and some sort of China GF w/ external financing would clearly signal a significant revenue growth / continued EV leadership with minimal forward risk.

It could be a combination of government incentives and a debt obligation on the new GF. Somewhat common structure - think how new stadiums are financed

 

[Bullish_Bear]

I guess it could be the margin improvement of Model 3

 

[Stretch2727]

Here are my guesses for the short burn.

-positive gross margin on the 3. Maybe not enough to overall be profitable, but enough to see where it will be in Q3 and Q4.

-large increase in reservations.

-some creative investment from
China that does not dilute shareholders. A Chinese EV company provides the factory in exchange for access to purchase Tesla batteries or packs??

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I guess it could be the margin improvement of Model 3

That has my vote, actually.

When I’m feeling frisky, I even believe it’s going to be proof of an early 25% margin on Model 3, now that P and AWD are in the mix
...announced on July 3rd with fireworks
...at the delivery of the 200,000th US vehicle, wrapped with a bow
...at the surprise grand-opening of the very first Drive-Thru Indoor Supercharger (in a climate-controlled Sprung structure of course)
...in or near Fort Stockton TX, the “Golden Spike” of a completed Interstate 10 superchargerhighway.

B Y O NotAFlamethrower.

Edit to add: “...Mountain.”

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't get the size of this tent, but I have a feeling (yeah no more than that..) that the tent could just be some kind of exit ramp of GA3....

Edit : Or the tent contains the whole GA3 and that is what Elon is taking about when he wrote ''w minimal ressources'' . Hmmm...

What makes you think that the "tent" is GA3? I would think it is GA4.

 

[dmckinstry]

So why 3 weeks? Isn’t Q2 delivery numbers to be released in about 2 weeks? Or is 3 weeks the China factory announcement?

Naw! It just takes the shorts over a week to figure out what's happening.

 

[Sancho]

Can anyone recall any other instance of a CEO of a public company publicly predicting a large stock price movement with such very near timing?

 

[Remus]

Couldn't resist to get on Twitter again for a good laugh. Found shorts dissecting the first m3p picture like conspiracy theorists 'explaining' why moon landing is fake.

 

[TheMrX]

What makes you think that the "tent" is GA3? I would think it is GA4.

I don't think about the GA number, there is a picture with Elon's tweet. The picture shows a model 3 on some kind of conveyor..... in the said "tent"

 

[skitown]

What makes you think that the "tent" is GA3? I would think it is GA4.

I’m with you. Obviously GA4. Look at the pic. LOL.

 

[MartinAustin]

1) it won't be due to a new Model S, which I do not think is on its way. (current model just got faster computer, bluetooth in the door mirrors, new graphite metal trim, the return of ventilated seats, etc. etc. - it's still getting work done to it). A new Model S wouldn't significantly change the financials of the company. They'll still make about 50,000 per year.
2) it won't be due to a statement about 25% gross margins. That will wait until the Q2 earnings report about a month later, as investors will want to look at the full details of the financial report to believe it.
3) the substantial, believable, significant difference that will be revealed, will be the China factory. It was being built as a large, empty TenCent building prior to now, and this would not be traceable to Tesla. However as they begin to bring in battery manufacturing and auto assembly equipment and supplies, the rumour would be tougher to contain. So IMO the announcement will be that the China factory building is already be built, is just getting the equipment installed, workers hired, and a timeline for Chinese deliveries of Model 3 will be revealed. (LOL, new fodder for the shorts to complain about when it gets delayed? ...broken record)

 

[TSLAopt]

Here are my guesses for the short burn.

-positive gross margin on the 3. Maybe not enough to overall be profitable, but enough to see where it will be in Q3 and Q4.

-large increase in reservations.

-some creative investment from
China that does not dilute shareholders. A Chinese EV company provides the factory in exchange for access to purchase Tesla batteries or packs??

Wild guess here... maybe it’s announcing big deal with providing batteries for space laser technology SpaceX is producing for the military?

 

[UrsS]

Magicians make you look in one place as they perform the trick in another place where you don't look.
How about Tesla Energy for the Short Squeeze? Such as a large contract with a foreign country, or a very large utility company, similar but much bigger than the South Australian battery?
Or how about some sort of merger/buy-out between SpaceX and Tesla?
Or some Chinese governmental loan/investment guarantees? (Trump won't do it)
of course it could also be that the next Giga Factory has already been secretly built in North Korea . . .

 

[Robertj]

It could be as simple as 6,000 per week production with new GA3 operating

Elon did say at 1sr quarter conference call

GA 1 & GA 2 can operationally do 5,000 per week
GA 3 would take that easily over that vuolume

 

[MXWing]

Rolled my weekly 360 covered calls to 370 before the bell on Friday and thought I did well.

Thinking I better close that short lest I make pennies instead of dollars.

 

[MXWing]

A Tesla Blockchain announcement would smash any of the proposed "good news" theories by a factor of a million.