Warren moves up in Fox polling. Poll shows any of the top 4 Dems would beat Trump.
Poll: Warren jumps over Sanders for second place behind Biden
Fivethirtyeight gives pollsters letter grades and Fox is actually one of the few A graded pollsters. Despite the reputation of the channel, their polls are fairly accurate and have been for a few years. I've been watching the presidential approval polls and the higher grade a pollster gets on fivethirtyeight the worse Trump's approval. One interesting thing about the latest Fox poll is Trump's approval number has barely moved, but his disapproval shot up and the Don't know/undecideds went to 1%. Between the late July poll and the most recent his strong disapproval rating went from 41% to 48%.
His strong approval numbers hold steady in the high 20s. That's his core base. I believe the rest of his approval are financial, fair weather support who don't like him but approve of him as long as the economy is good. If we do go into a recession, they will probably abandon him.
There are rumors leaking out of the White House that Trump is panicked about the economy but his people are doing nothing to shore it up because they don't have a clue. At least GW Bush had some people around him who had some idea to do something when the economy went bad in 2008. There are good arguments they weren't the best options, but they knew enough to do something and they did prevent a global meltdown.
Fox poll details:
Fox News Poll 8/15
At this time, best to concentrate on fundamentals.
Most Democrats Are Excited by ‘Several’ 2020 Candidates - Not Just Their Top Choice
Its funny how the "Bernie Bro" myth was spread by Hillary - 53% of Sanders supporters are women and 51% are POC
View attachment 442998
To be fair some of Bernie's support has spread to other candidates and the demographics of his supporters might be different from 2016. It's still an interesting breakdown.
Trump just tweeted that he is considering naming ANTIFA as a "terror" organization. BTW, police are heavily infiltrated by white supremacists. It is very common for them to completely trust neo-Nazis, have their back to the neo-Nazis and point guns at ANTIFA.
Arun Gupta on Twitter
ps :
Trip Gabriel on Twitter
From a disillusioned GOP operative: ‘The Trump campaign is well aware of the organized participation of Proud Boys rallies merging into Trump events. They dont care. Staff are to treat it like a coalition they can’t talk about.’
Trump's embrace of white nationalists has become news lately, but I hope it becomes a solid meme in the coming months. Rick Wilson and Steve Schmidt were among the first Republican campaign people to split with the party over Trump. Wilson wrote a memo to the RNC the day after Trump jumped in the 2016 race telling them Trump was dangerous. He said the GOP could spend a few thousand defeating Trump before his campaign got off the ground, or spend millions late in the nomination process, or if he got elected the GOP would spend at least a decade if not a generation out of power and it would cost billions to rebuild. He said that someone high up in the RNC at the time has acknowledged Wilson was right.
There are really only two paths for the RNC here. Turn the US into a dictatorship or watch the party destroy itself when Trump is gone. Up until the late 1970s Evangelical Christians were not a voting block. They voted, but had no identifiable political identity as a group. Along with the Southern Strategy started by Nixon, the Republicans created the Evangelical voting block and ensured they were reliable Republican voters. By empowering them they became much more vocal and became the focal point of a number of political controversies. The right wing media has been able to routinely stir this coalition up by trotting out the fictitious War on Christmas or abortion or one of the other hot button topics.
Trump has now done the same thing with white nationalists. The Evangelicals were more accepted by the general public because they share many views with non-Evangelicals. For example Joe Biden is personally anti-abortion, but where he splits with the Evangelicals is with the political solution rather than the core idea.
With white nationalists, it's a much deeper divide between their views and the rest of the country. Of course the non-whites who might agree with them is so tiny as to be non-existent, but also a fairly large number of whites strongly disagree with them. Most of the counter protesters on Portland today were white.
The white supremacists threaten the peace more than Evangelicals. There were attacks by Evangelicals on abortion clinics, but other than that they have not been very violent. A large number of Americans are willing to let people they disagree with but want to speak up have their say. As long as the people speaking out aren't violent, it's considered tolerated behavior even if disliked. But when people are violent or look like they could become violent at any minute, people feel differently.
I was living in Seattle during the WTO protests and I remember there were a lot of stories going around from the protesters that the property violence was started by people who just showed up dressed like them, did something like break windows and ran off. ie someone was agitating to make the protesters look bad. That's tougher to pull off today because someone will get cell phone video of the whole thing.
So we have is the president calling peaceful protesters terrorists and violent thugs "some good people". Trevor Noah saw Trump coming. He has pointed out since 2015 that Trump was an African dictator with paler skin.
