... so let COVID-19 'wash over' the US with the help of poor uneducated Trump supporters, genius!
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... so let COVID-19 'wash over' the US with the help of poor uneducated Trump supporters, genius!
Rural red states are starting to see explosions in cases. These demonstrations are going to feed growth in these cases. In a few months these may be called Trump's death rallies.
Republican operatives have been doing that sort of thing for almost 40 years. Lee Atwater's dirty tricks back in the day, Carl Rove and James O'Keefe doing more dirty tricks later. There was a media fire storm over a talk Shirley Sherrod gave. It later turned out the video was doctored to make it look like she said something other than she said.
But the smart Republicans always kept plausible deniability from these games. The difference is Trump is openly endorsing them.
I am an expert in malevolent governments having taught about them for over thirty years at the college and university level. I am not an Americanist scholar but my colleagues who have the competence highly rate The Hill.
Cf.:
President Trump and Republicans could face trouble this November
I would like to ad to that discussion alienation of senior voters normally associated with the tea party. Rachel Maddow is trying to draw our belated attention to the Government’s ignorance of nursing home deaths due to Corona Virus. Just as people of color and Native Americans suffer disproportionate discrimination, so do seniors as a voting category. One way to combat the virus is to just let its most likely victims die. The great religions all consider it a sin to tolerate suffering when something can be done about it. Capitalism is not a great religion though many swear sacred loyalty on its “Cross of Gold.” Classic examples include Republican Governors and Trump on basic health measures when in conflict with the proverbial "bottom line."
While some Republican political leaders are upfront in making it hard for people of color to vote, they rely upon stealth and the general laziness of voters to disguise their antipathy to my generation who recognized the role government could play in resuscitating the economy and fighting a war to its finish. It was a living breathing thing for us. It was a great womb to us as children during World War II. Government was clear about the manly virtue of protection without fear of being a "sissy." Then real men accepted help; everyone needed it as we do today.
The Trump administration’s core supporters must now be recognized not only as racist xenophobes, and sexist, of course, but now their emperor is agist. The Republican Party, just like Hitler, is becoming suicidal at the end by alienating its most conservative allies.
I wonder when its laissez-faire approach to governance will get around to the destruction of crossing guards at railroads? The problem of government, you see, is it regulates human behavior. Not only does it restrain autos, but trains from collision. We can’t have that!! Patriotic Americans unite. All you have to gain is a train wreck! “A beautiful thing to see, perfect, like the Ukrainian letter!”
At root, fascism is nihilistic. That is its appeal. Its great Satan is morality leveraged by the pivot of leadership. In Death of a Salesman, Willy Loman is made to say “It doesn’t matter what you say, it’s how you say it.” In Trumpspeak, "You see how on one hand I limit but permit experts to take leadership, but timidly encourage protest to suck up to my voters. I get the suckers coming and going. I lead in a sucker's paradise."
Freedom is the capacity to exercise enlightened choice. A stupid man is not free though he may believe he is, especially in his right to be stupid. Only in America...well maybe Hungary too.
Cf.:
President Trump and Republicans could face trouble this November
I would like to ad to that discussion alienation of senior voters normally associated with the tea party. Rachel Maddow is trying to draw our belated attention to the Government’s ignorance of nursing home deaths due to Corona Virus. Just as people of color and Native Americans suffer disproportionate discrimination, so do seniors as a voting category. One way to combat the virus is to just let its most likely victims die. The great religions all consider it a sin to tolerate suffering when something can be done about it. Capitalism is not a great religion though many swear sacred loyalty on its “Cross of Gold.” Classic examples include Republican Governors and Trump on basic health measures when in conflict with the proverbial "bottom line."
While some Republican political leaders are upfront in making it hard for people of color to vote, they rely upon stealth and the general laziness of voters to disguise their antipathy to my generation who recognized the role government could play in resuscitating the economy and fighting a war to its finish. It was a living breathing thing for us. It was a great womb to us as children during World War II. Government was clear about the manly virtue of protection without fear of being a "sissy." Then real men accepted help; everyone needed it as we do today.
The Trump administration’s core supporters must now be recognized not only as racist xenophobes, and sexist, of course, but now their emperor is agist. The Republican Party, just like Hitler, is becoming suicidal at the end by alienating its most conservative allies.
I wonder when its laissez-faire approach to governance will get around to the destruction of crossing guards at railroads? The problem of government, you see, is it regulates human behavior. Not only does it restrain autos, but trains from collision. We can’t have that!! Patriotic Americans unite. All you have to gain is a train wreck! “A beautiful thing to see, perfect, like the Ukrainian letter!”
At root, fascism is nihilistic. That is its appeal. Its great Satan is morality leveraged by the pivot of leadership. In Death of a Salesman, Willy Loman is made to say “It doesn’t matter what you say, it’s how you say it.” In Trumpspeak, "You see how on one hand I limit but permit experts to take leadership, but timidly encourage protest to suck up to my voters. I get the suckers coming and going. I lead in a sucker's paradise."
Freedom is the capacity to exercise enlightened choice. A stupid man is not free though he may believe he is, especially in his right to be stupid. Only in America...well maybe Hungary too.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Party Identification Varies Widely Across the Age Spectrum
"Democrats have a general advantage in American politics today, with 44% of American adults interviewed in 2013 and the first half of 2014 identifying with or leaning toward the Democratic Party, contrasted with 39% who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. These overall numbers, however, mask highly important differences across the age spectrum. Young Americans are more detached from the political system in general, but still tilt strongly toward the Democratic Party, particularly when those who initially identify as independents are asked to which party they lean. Middle-aged Americans from about 40 to their mid-50s are more Republican in their political leanings, while older baby boomers tilt back toward a Democratic political orientation. Finally, seniors in today's world for the most part constitute Republicans' strongest age group."
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Seems not. But Trump and the Republican party are adamant about having less older voters, most recently, Republicans ensured that there will be less older voters in Wisconsin this November.. 
U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era
"As the 2020 presidential election campaign gets underway in earnest, Americans' party leanings are the same as they were in 2016, indicating the Trump era has not fundamentally altered the U.S. political landscape.
Given that Trump was able to prevail in 2016 when Democrats held a five-point advantage in party preferences, other factors -- particularly voter turnout -- will help decide which party wins the presidency in 2020. Voter turnout will be especially crucial in states that Trump won or lost narrowly in 2016, most notably three Rust Belt states he won (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) that the GOP had lost in the six previous presidential elections.
The 2020 election does present voters with a slightly different choice than the 2016 election did, given Trump's status as an incumbent. As in all elections involving an incumbent, voters' decision may represent a referendum on the incumbent's performance more than a choice of which of the two major parties offer the best plans for leading the nation over the next four years."
U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era
"As the 2020 presidential election campaign gets underway in earnest, Americans' party leanings are the same as they were in 2016, indicating the Trump era has not fundamentally altered the U.S. political landscape.
Given that Trump was able to prevail in 2016 when Democrats held a five-point advantage in party preferences, other factors -- particularly voter turnout -- will help decide which party wins the presidency in 2020. Voter turnout will be especially crucial in states that Trump won or lost narrowly in 2016, most notably three Rust Belt states he won (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) that the GOP had lost in the six previous presidential elections.
The 2020 election does present voters with a slightly different choice than the 2016 election did, given Trump's status as an incumbent. As in all elections involving an incumbent, voters' decision may represent a referendum on the incumbent's performance more than a choice of which of the two major parties offer the best plans for leading the nation over the next four years."
I think @Intl Professor 's point was that if this virus kills a lot of older Americans due to political incompetence on the part of the Republicans, that could jar many of the survivors to switch party this year.
I can't find it now, but there was a study, I think by Pew, but may have been someone else, about who was president when someone turned 18 and their voting patterns subsequently. For most groups if a Republicans was president, they tend to vote Republicans and if a Democrat was president, they tend to vote Democrat. The exception being those who came of age under GW Bush.
The Silent Generation mostly came of age during Eisenhower's time in office and they tend to vote reliably Republican. The WWII generation tended to vote Democrat, but most of them are gone now. Different parts of different generations tend to vote differently. Early Boomers came of age during the civil rights struggle, but middle Boomers came of age when Vietnam was the biggest issue and the Democrats got the blame for starting it while Nixon lied about ending it until he had tried everything to win it. Nixon also went out of office under a cloud. The late Boomers came of age during the miasma after the war ended and the oil crisis.
The early Gen X came of age during Reagan and Bush I while the end of that generation came of age during Clinton. Neroden pointed out that peak conservatism is among those born in 1974. There is a growth in conservatism up to that point and then among those born after have been becoming more liberal.
With two 8 year terms of Democratic presidents going back to 1992 with two disastrous Republican administrations mixed in, it's created a very liberal leaning population among those under 50. That spells doom for the current Republican party down the line.
Seems not. But Trump and the Republican party are adamant about having less older voters, most recently, Republicans ensured that there will be less older voters in Wisconsin this November..
U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era
"As the 2020 presidential election campaign gets underway in earnest, Americans' party leanings are the same as they were in 2016, indicating the Trump era has not fundamentally altered the U.S. political landscape.
Given that Trump was able to prevail in 2016 when Democrats held a five-point advantage in party preferences, other factors -- particularly voter turnout -- will help decide which party wins the presidency in 2020. Voter turnout will be especially crucial in states that Trump won or lost narrowly in 2016, most notably three Rust Belt states he won (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) that the GOP had lost in the six previous presidential elections.
The 2020 election does present voters with a slightly different choice than the 2016 election did, given Trump's status as an incumbent. As in all elections involving an incumbent, voters' decision may represent a referendum on the incumbent's performance more than a choice of which of the two major parties offer the best plans for leading the nation over the next four years."
This is very much inline with what Rachel Bitecofer has been saying.
Electrek - today: Hey EV drivers: Trump is getting ready to bail out big oil - Electrek
In response, below is what I wrote to those who represent me in Congress. You may want to similarly express your opinion to Congress.
_________________________
Please do not bail out the polluting and anachronistic oil industry. Allow innovation to take us more rapidly into an alternative energy future. You can speed the transition of workers into superior 21st century industries. In the process you can eliminate our primary motive for being involved in far-way Middle Eastern wars, while allowing us to breath cleaner air and preventing climate change.
A century ago, the horse and buggy industries were not propped up by Congress. Now let’s allow modern alternatives to speedily replace the fossil fuel and internal combustion industries without political obstruction.
In response, below is what I wrote to those who represent me in Congress. You may want to similarly express your opinion to Congress.
_________________________
Please do not bail out the polluting and anachronistic oil industry. Allow innovation to take us more rapidly into an alternative energy future. You can speed the transition of workers into superior 21st century industries. In the process you can eliminate our primary motive for being involved in far-way Middle Eastern wars, while allowing us to breath cleaner air and preventing climate change.
A century ago, the horse and buggy industries were not propped up by Congress. Now let’s allow modern alternatives to speedily replace the fossil fuel and internal combustion industries without political obstruction.
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While I agree in sentiment, the horse and buggy industry was not deeply woven into the entire planet's economy when it collapsed. We should be doing everything we can to move away from fossil fuels, but right now, we can't just let the industry die and replace it. The world doesn't have enough battery production capacity to replace all ICE land vehicles with electric, self driving tech is not there to reduce the need for people owning cars (nor is the legal framework in place for self driving vehicles), the poor can barely afford an ICE in poor condition there are not enough used EVs for them, there is no alternative in place to replace fossil fuels in aircraft, ships, or trains at the moment (though technologically most trains are doable now ocean going ships and long range aircraft are a long ways off), and while renewables are coming along for land based power there isn't enough of it to replace fossil fuels for that yet.
Letting the oil industry collapse now would collapse the global economy at a time when we need to keep it alive to keep us alive. It would literally kill billions (only a fraction of the world's population could get enough to eat without fossil fueled food delivery, along with all the other necessities that are delivered via fossil fueled vehicles).
The decline of the oil industry has to be managed. Think of it like someone being addicted to a drug that is keeping them alive. If you cut off supply cold turkey it kills them because while the drug is harming them, their body also needs it to survive. You need to wean them off the drug and onto something more healthy.
Like I said, I'm with you in sentiment, but cold turkey is not the way to go. Sorry, it's the way things have to be right now.
Look at other countries that tax oil and gas instead of subsidize, many are farther along in the shift to renewable than the USA. Letting the industry stand on its own is totally different than subsidizing it so that we can pay a higher price. Same goes for farmers. Where are all these subsidies coming from?!? Tax dollar I assume. So how about leave those 2 industry to stand on their own and lower our taxes.
Do you know that we see spot negative energy prices around noon (solar) and nights (wind power), by your logic, we need to subsidize solar and wind power even more instead of building utility scale batteries. Makes no sense.
Global economy would not collapse, otherwise, it would have collapsed back when crude was $20. Just more excuses for the industry.
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I don't quite understand this argument. While I do agree that when this is over we should be restructuring the tax structure on oil products to discourage use and shift demand to alternatives when available.
No matter what the oil price is, the oil industry is not going to collapse overnight. The price has been low before and it has survived. The price of American crude has never been this low.
If the oil business is not at risk of collapse, it shouldn't get help. If it is, is should get enough help to hold it together, but not make it whole. Everybody needs to take a haircut here.
If the oil business collapses, there will be no alternative energy or EV industry. Tesla relies on ships, trains, and trucks fueled with fossil fuels to move components of their cars to their factories and completed cars from their factories to customers. The renewable energy industry has the same conundrum. On top of that even if the workers are driving EVs to work, oil is used in growing the food they eat as well as transporting it to market.
Until the alternatives are in place in great enough numbers we can't even think about scaling back the oil infrastructure. In these cases the tech exists, but it doesn't exist in large enough numbers to replace oil completely. Some pretty big technologies need to be invented and some laws need to change before other things can change away from oil.
We should also be subsidizing alternative energy too. In a decade of big expansion we could have enough production of alternative energy devices to make a serious dent into fossil fuels in some areas. But we need fossil fuels to get there.
... because OPEC and Russia would not sell us oil if we are not producing them ourselves? Makes even less sense. Use the cheap imports while building our renewable infrastructure.
Everybody is dependent on American oil technology. Maintenance on the oversees oilfields is mostly done with American tech and American support. Russia is producing oil today because of American help. My sister was involved in rehabbing the Russian oilfields after the collapse of the USSR. Mismanagement had just about destroyed their production.
Saudi Arabia's oil is beginning to run out. They can't sell cheap oil forever. They will probably be going into terminal decline within the next few years.
We saw double digit inflation in the 1970s when we became dependent on OPEC oil. We became more embroiled in the Middle East after that in large part to prevent that kind of chaos at home. Buying oil from friendly countries like Canada and producing domestic could potentially free the US from having to play such a militaristic role in the Middle East.
The US could have stood down its role if the Bush administration had done the right thing in Afghanistan, eliminated the Taliban and al Qaeda when it had them on the ropes and left Iraq the heck alone. But the PNAC people thought they knew better and destabilized the entire region with the war in Iraq.
At the time of the invasion of Iraq the US was expanding domestic production. If the US had made the right moves, the Middle East would be less important to US interests today. But the US got the worst of both worlds, they expanded domestic production and paid that price, but didn't get the benefit of being able to back down commitments to the ME.
Just came across this article. Someone else is talking about the new party system taking hold now
2020 Could Usher in a New Era of One-Party Dominance - Niskanen Center
2020 Could Usher in a New Era of One-Party Dominance - Niskanen Center
STARR X
Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It already did, it gave us Trump. Not sure why the author thinks it would turn out differently this time.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Nonsense. What gave us Trump was 1) Russian meddling; 2) Trump campaign criminality; 3) Hillary's poor campaigning; 4) the Comey memo; and 5) idiot Bernie fans letting their buttons get pushed by Russian trolls and doing things like not voting or voting for Jill Stein or voting for Trump. Likely the first two happen again. Biden will probably do a decent job of campaigning, but probably not great.
Mostly we'll avoid another disastrous Trump term only if the idiot Bernie fans realize that the only real choice is to vote "not Trump", which means voting for Biden whether they like it or not. I'm not all that hopeful, since their buttons seem to be so trivial to push.
(I'm a Bernie fan, but not an idiot.)
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In the TV age, going back to 1960, there are two key factors to who wins the presidency. The #1 factor is who is more likeable. If that is pretty much even, the candidate who is more interesting wins.
Rachel Bitecofer has pointed out time and time again that Democrats think people vote on policy, but most voters don't care about that. Virtually all the voters who care about policy are already in the Democratic camp these days. What sways most voters is emotion and the Republicans have become masters at that.
In 2016 both candidates were very unliked, but Trump was more interesting. This year Trump is still more interesting, but it's clear he's interesting like a 7 car pile up on the freeway is interesting compared to everyday bumper to bumper traffic. As Trump continues to do his COVID-19 press conferences everyday it's becoming clear to more and more Americans that having Trump as president isn't like looking at a 7 car pile up, it's like being in one.
For most of the first 3 years, most of the people who voted for Trump or stayed home in 2016 were not really harmed by his poor governing style. He lied all the time and it was obvious, but the economy was good and the only people getting hurt were "the other guy" so they either ignored it or were entertained. Then a real crisis that was not of Trump's making came along and Trump screwed up the response to it in an epicly bad way. Unemployment has soared to the highest levels ever and a serious pandemic is barely under control in some parts of the country and raging like an out of control wildfire in other parts.
Over the last few weeks we've had people defy the stay at home orders to have Easter services in person, then the anti-lockdown protests, and finally some Southern states are making noises and some moves towards easing lockdown. In the first two cases, most of the people who participated were Trump supporters, and the last one is happening in the part of the country where his support is strongest. The next wave of COVID outbreak is going to happen more among Trump supporters than among those who have already made up their mind to vote for Biden.
The outbreak thus far has been mostly in Democratic strongholds like the west coast and NYC. Even New Oreleans and South Florida are blue dots in red states. It's also affected people of color more than white people. There is a meme among Trump supporters that this is a disease that hits Democrats and they are being protected. They are about to get a wake up call.
On top of that, Biden is far, far more likeable. He has the #1 criteria nailed.
The Democrats also have allies they didn't have in 2016. The Lincoln Project is made up of people who know the Republican playbook by heart because they did it for years. They are running ads to help Democrats this year because they see the only way out of this is to remove Republicans from power completely until the Republicans can figure out how to govern again. Additionally Bill Kristol, Michael Bloomberg, and Tom Steyer are all throwing resources at getting Biden and Democrats elected.
There has also been quite a bit of education about how the Russians manipulate people online over the last 4 years. People are still being drawn in, but it's fewer and it's mostly people already in Trump's camp. The anti-lockdown protests were driven by special interests and the Russians, and the people who turned out were mostly super Trump supporters. The rest of the population was horrified.
There was a reason the Japanese only attacked Pearl Harbor once and al Qaeda only hijacked planes once. Both depended on surprise. The Russians continue to try to manipulate because it's cheap with little downside, but it's a lot less effective because people are aware of it now.
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