I really need to get the F down there. I’m 40 mins North of NYC.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You really want to expose yourself to tear gas, rubber bullets, pepper spray, and thousands of people screaming and potentially spraying their covid breath all over you?
Hmmm....seems like some in the police really are part of the problem.
He added that he was "disturbed" by reports that some of the officers were not only allowing the crowd to gather but were reportedly seen high-fiving and taking photos with them.
“Reports and images of their innocent neighbors being beaten, threatened, and addressed with hateful speech by them are devastating. And, if confirmed, reports that some police officers witnessed and tolerated this conduct without arresting them only add to the hurt arising from George Floyd’s killing by police,” Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said in a statement Tuesday.
99% sure I’ve already had COVID. I’m 37 and in 30 years I’d rather look back that I did instead of didn’t. Marching with King was risky too.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Everyone is saying that. The hard data, what we have even in NYC, is that at most one in 5 people have actually contracted it (one in 25 in the population in the USA).
True. Even one of the people quarantining with me thinks he had it....on New Years Day...because his stomach hurt. lol
However, for me, there was contact from my wife's boss, to her, to me. I'm an ultrarunner and am always wearing a Garmin which records my data. Pulse Ox went down, my lungs were completely gone on my runs, I'm never ever sick, slept for 12 hours a few days in a row for no good reason at all. Anyway, I'm about as fit as someone could be, if I didn't have it I'm not worried about it.
...but I had it.
I think it shouldn't be a surprise that violence generates new violence on the other side. The more we see looting (I'm still learning PC lingo, is it a good thing now or not?), the more we see those equally unpleasant baseball players.
Corona restrictions will be lifted soon and forgotten since policymakers should understand that this is what 3 months of quarantine have done to a society, a little more and it falls apart completely.
Also, I think a gun market just received a huge multi-year boost, and of course, any gun bans are off the table now for many years.
I also believe this whole situation makes Trump re-election even more possible and it will be one more time a huge surprise to everyone (a silent majority of "ordinary" people not usually interested in politics will go out and vote for their definition of "normality"). Just my thoughts as a bystander in US politics, but with some skin in the game with my home, my business, etc. on the line.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
All evidence suggests the opposite. He's been exposed as an incompetent coward to many who though otherwise. We'll have to see if enough remain deluded to keep him around.
Yeah, Trump is pivoting to a "well, who needs voters anyway" strategy. It's going to be a scary few months.
My thoughts as well, unfortunately.
The coronavirus scare will pass as more things open up (and become harder to re-close) regardless of any increasing cases IMO. The demonstrations will eventually subside.
And as the market continues it’s check-mark (thanks to this forum, I learned a new term) recovery, more people will warm back up to Trump. Regardless of Main Street, the better the stock market looks, the better his chances will be I believe.
Investors might feel this way, but they are special interest voters. The majority of voters get their clues about the economy based on other indices, like their employment and compensation, and thus probable voting behavior. My guess would be they are pissed off on average. Also, without Trump's tariff wars my guess would be the market would be higher still, We will know if he ever leaves office.
Electrek - hour ago: EGEB: Trump suspends environmental reviews - Electrek
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There has been literally zero violence in that neighborhood. These baseball players were triggered by an obviously fake Instagram post saying an antifa protest was scheduled for their neighborhood. Turns out the protest Instagram post was made by......a white nationalist group.
So at the end of the day this is violence on one "side" creating more violence on that same "side".
Starting to sound like this district captain is getting the axe for allowing hatchet and club wielding idiots to patrol his beat. Giving them high fives. Never thought I'd see the day a 26th District cop would get canned just for being extremely and overtly racist. That's usually a prerequisite!
One of the Lincoln Project members who is a former Republican insider (all the Lincoln Project heavy hitters are former Republican insiders) was on Chris Hayes last night, Stuart Stevens. He was doing the typical deep dive on Trump's polls that he would normally do in his old job. He made the point the fundamentals are bad for Trump and only going in one direction. He said if this trend continues, the election is going to look like 1964 (where Johnson blew out Goldwater in one of the top three election victories in American history).
One indicator is those who say they strongly favor or strongly disfavor someone. Strong favor/disfavor is an indication of motivation. Trump has about 20% strongly favor and Biden only about 10%, which looks bad on the surface, but Trump also averages about 48% strongly disfavor. Biden's strong disfavors are also very low. When people get to strong favor/disfavor they are very unlikely to move. Strong disfavors are most likely votes for the opposition unless the opposition is worse.
Biden's support is lukewarm, but Trump has around 1/2 the American population loathing him now.
Trump's disfavorability numbers are just going up. At the beginning of the corona virus scare, there was a rally around the flag effect that saw Trump's disfavorable go to it's lowest since early 2017: 50%. Since then it's gone back to averaging 54%. An incumbent president running for re-election always gets a share of the popular vote very close to their approval rating on election day. GW Bush and Obama were less than 1% off. Trump's current favorability is under 42%.
How Popular Is Donald Trump?
The individual state polls, which is what counts look even worse. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are looking bad for Trump. In one recent poll Biden was up by more than 10 in Wisconsin and the other two states are moving that direction. In 2016 Trump got help from the governors and secretaries of state in those three states who were Republican and played every game in the book to keep Democrats from voting. In 2018 the governors and secretaries of state flipped in all three states. The administrations are now Democrats who aim for the fairest elections possible.
The Wisconsin primary in April has some key down ballot races including a very conservative supreme court justice up for re-election. The Republicans thought that forcing the election would keep the Democratic/left leaning vote down, but it backfired and the conservative justice lost by 10. Rick Wilson has pointed out that there is a large and growing cadre of people who will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump and now against Republicans.
Recent polls in other states show Ohio, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, and possible Missouri all in play. Biden is close or winning in all those states in recent polls.
Rachel Bitecofer who accurately predicted 42 of 47 key House races in 2018 has predicted that Biden starts with around 285 electoral votes (he needs 270 to win) and as long as he just looks better than Trump between now and November, he will win.
Trump's response to the corona virus outbreak has softened his support among the over 65s which puts Florida and Arizona in play. His antics like this week's jaunt to the church to hold up a Bible awkwardly after peaceful protestors were driven off with tear gas and rubber bullets is going over like a lead balloon. Many religious people have called him out for his crassness and it might start a slide among religious voters.
A polling firm that focuses on religion and politics released a new poll yesterday. My SO was reading excepts to me last night. He has slid significantly among Catholics and his support is weakening among Protestants too. I forget the exact numbers, but they are grim for any Republican running for office.
In 2016 Trump won a large percentage of voters who disliked both he and Hillary. ie Hillary was more hated. However that's reversed this year. Biden is winning those who dislike both by as big a margin as Trump in 2016.
Trump and Barr are trying their best to break the constitution and end democracy in the US. Trump stays in office if they succeed by November, but in any remotely fair election, Trump will likely lose.
The key is down ballot. To get anything done, the Democrats need to control the Senate and that's the most iffy. The Republicans are defending 23 seats and the Democrats only 12. Only one Democratic seat is unsafe - Doug Jones in Alabama. The Democrats need to pick up at least 3 seats in total, 4 flips if Jones loses to control the Senate. McSally in Arizona is in a lot of trouble, so is Collins in Maine and Tillis in North Carolina. Other seats where the Democrats have a shot are Kansas, Montana, Iowa, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Georgia. Control of the Senate is very iffy at this point. If the Democrats do very well, they will have a strong majority in the Senate, but there is a decent chance Mitch McConnell will retain control of the Senate next year. If he does, nothing will happen until at least early 2023.
The Republican party has lost its way and the only thing they care about is politics and not governing. There are a few rogue Republicans like the governor of Ohio who take governing seriously, but most are only interested in playing political games. The Senate Republicans will put the entire country at risk to make Democrats look bad. It's guaranteed.
They did it earlier this year. Adam Schiff has said that a number of Senate Republicans came to him privately and told him the case he presented in the impeachment was air tight and proved Trump's guilt, but all but one voted to acquit anyway.
I don’t think Trump has watched enough news on TV to follow along what’s been going in the country.
In response to a reporter’s question, “Sir, what is your plan for systemic racism?”
Trump responds, “What’s happened to our country, and what you now see, it’s been happening, is the greatest thing that can happen for race relations, for African American community, for the Asian American, for the Hispanic community, for women, for everything, because our country is so strong, and that’s what my plan is. We’re going to have the strongest economy in the world...”
In response to a reporter’s question, “Sir, what is your plan for systemic racism?”
Trump responds, “What’s happened to our country, and what you now see, it’s been happening, is the greatest thing that can happen for race relations, for African American community, for the Asian American, for the Hispanic community, for women, for everything, because our country is so strong, and that’s what my plan is. We’re going to have the strongest economy in the world...”
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
A long time Republican friend said to me.
"I'd vote for the devil himself, if he was running against Trump."
"I'd vote for the devil himself, if he was running against Trump."
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's going to turn off a lot of people I'm afraid. There is a lot of anti Obama hate out there.
America’s partisan divide is the line in North America where the rivers of common sense flow in opposite directions.
JB Leonard
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