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Model 3 at $40K?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by JRP3, Jul 21, 2014.

  1. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  2. GenIIIBuyer

    GenIIIBuyer Member

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    I hope that's $40K excluding tax credits.
     
  3. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    tisk tisk, should have kept it lower. oh well....
     
  4. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    They could easily drop the price but then you getting into the problem the Leaf has now (low range).
     
  5. GenIIIBuyer

    GenIIIBuyer Member

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    I think $40K excluding credits is very fair price to consumers. In some states with large tax credits that will be sub $30K..
     
  6. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    I can't drift up too much or it's little different than the Model S which original started at $50,000 (after tax credit, and that 40kwh model is gone), but has a real price for most folks of well over $80,000.

    If the Model 3 "starts at $40,000", but has as real price north of $70,000 then that's not really doing much of anything to create a mass market car.
     
  7. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    What do you mean?

    Not here in Texas and this state is the second largest area for Tesla. We drive a lot around here because everything is so much more spread out. I would think they would want to get as much business from us as possible.

    Yep. Let's just go ahead and start putting quotations around the word mass from now on. Do you guys know how much a monthly payment for $40,000 is? It is not for the "masses" We still have a few years, so hopefully they really get in down into the mid 30s.

    I've said this before, but all those FUD articles are going to pick up that the price has increased and that it's out of touch for most people and EVs are still not cheap enough. It will be interesting to see how Tesla defends that question.
     
  8. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    I mean lower price gives Tesla less money to spend to build the car and make a profit. The battery is the most expensive part of the car. If you drop the price to $33,000 for example then that is $7,000 less Tesla can spend on the car and would be a much smaller battery pack in terms of capacity. Smaller pack means less range.
     
  9. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Yup. $40k is getting beyond my acceptable range. Don't need 6s performance, 19" wheels or 120mph limit. 7s, 15" and 100mph is more than enough.
     
  10. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    ah, yeah, I get that. But it wasn't us who threw out these cost numbers for this car. First it was $30,000, then $35,000, now maybe $40,000. So which is it?

    I would love to get a 150 range EV, that's plenty. We seem to be stuck between the LEAF and now a more expensive Model 3. No other choices for several more years.....

    Maybe they quoted a higher price because they know Nissan is supposed to come out with a LEAF with 135 range for around $33,000 in about a year or two and think they can get more money for their car now...I don't know....
     
  11. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    #11 ItsNotAboutTheMoney, Jul 21, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
    $35k - $12k 60kWh battery = $23k
    $23k * 10/11 (10% gross margin) = $20.91k
    I'll pay extra for the winter package and Supercharger access. I might even stump up for the autonomous driving, depending on price and capability.

    Anyway, there's their challenge: make an batteryless electric car, including the remaining EV hardware, for $21k or less. The cheaper the battery, the more they can get in the car.
     
  12. CHGolferJim

    CHGolferJim Member

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    Surely they will market research the optimal base configuration to death before finalizing. I'm guessing with the Roadster and Model S they didn't need to bother, so that is a core skill set Tesla corporate will have to acquire. I wonder if they will try to build store inventories before launch to enable impulse purchasing and boost early sales numbers for publicity reasons?
     
  13. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    Elon has said it needs to be better than a regular car. Even though no one drives over 100mph (legally) in an Accord they feel they might want to some day so top speed and acceleration still matter.

    Tesla's version of 'mass market' is different than Honda or Toyota. Nissan is tackling the sub $30,000 EV market. If Tesla can't produce a compelling car with 200 mile range for $30,000 then $40,000 is still a major improvement over the Model S.
     
  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    The optimistic scenario is that demand would be high enough at $40k that they'd not be selling a base base model until they have a 2 or more factories. The realistic scenario is that Tesla will miss the target pricepoint.
     
  15. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    ah, semantics, that's how they will play this game. hahaha. yeah yeah, I get that, but not. hahaha. I could do a 30-33,000 EV as a new car, but not 40. Give me a stripped down version with 200 range and I'll be happy. The name of the game is to get most people to switch to EVs right? Not to see how luxurious you can get the customer to make the car with add-ons. They should make a category for those that are happy with a basic package.
     
  16. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    A couple things, the second part first. When Tesla announced the Model 3 a long time ago, they said about $35,000 in "today's dollars", where today was a couple years ago now. A $40k price point in 2017 is pretty well within that statement.

    The real price, after gas savings over 100,000 miles*, puts the car at probably closer to $30,000. That's reasonable to define as a "mass market" price. Google tells me the Nissan Altima is the #1 car at the moment (stealing the spot from the Camry) and it's V6 model has an MSRP of $27,000, a price that will likely grow some by 2017. So, $40,000 is a reasonable target for a "mass market" car since Tesla can very reasonably say it's cost of ownership is fairly close to being on par with the best selling car in the US.

    *40 mpg @ $4/gallon, 100000 miles / 40 mpg * $4/gallon = $10,000

    But, that $40,000 car has to be a good car, one folks will see as on par with an Altima or Camry. It can't be a 130 mile range Tesla version of the LEAF.
     
  17. physicsfita

    physicsfita Member

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    In the interview where the "Model 3" name was announced, Musk was attributed as saying the car would cost "about" $35K:

    Tesla Model 3 to challenge BMW 3 Series - World Exclusive | Auto Express

    This was the article tweeted by Tesla -- in a follow-up tweet, they indicated that the pictures used were not provided by Tesla. Seems like if the price was quoted in error, they would have followed up on that, too.
     
  18. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    #18 ggies07, Jul 21, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
    ah, I do remember that "today's dollars" talk. Good point.

    Just a little sad/upset if true because I will need a new car in about 2-3 years, I have a Honda Accord and will hit 200,000 miles on it by then, and I was hoping to switch to an EV and wanted it to be a Tesla. Not going to happen at the $40,000 range. Back to the drawing board.....haha.
     
  19. GenIIIBuyer

    GenIIIBuyer Member

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    Something that people haven't speculated on in a while is when Tesla will sell more than 200,000 cars in the US, and then have Federal EV credit quickly wind down to $0 over several quarters.

    Likely only the first 100,000 Model III's will benefit from the full $7,500 Federal tax credit. Tesla may start at $40,000 knowing this and then drop price down to $35,000 after Federal tax credits run out, and economies of scale are achieved.
     
  20. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    "about $35k" = $42.5k actual base price, excluding all options and rebates. adding options means > $50k. subtract government rebate, expect average actual cost to be around $42-$47k.
     

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