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omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
I can kind of see using $35k in real 2012 dollars (or whenever the III was first discussed) as a basis, so by 2017/2018 the car might be ~$40k
With that said, I really hope they don't pull that, "We only built this model to back up our claim and now we're canning it" behavior with the III too. I don't think they'll have as much success selling the III at $50k as they would have at $40k.
IMO there's a very good chance other manufacturers will have ~150-200 mile EVs by the time the III comes out, so it'll need to appeal to a very broad consumer base for Tesla to really take off.
Agree. Tesla will be facing a much more competitive landscape targeting less tech savvy buyers less swayed by the Tesla performance romance. A 200-mile Model 3 against a 150-mile Infinity or BMW EV would be a tough sell, especially if S and X have fully utilized the federal tax credit and Infinity or BMW have plenty left. BMW has 3 years warning that they are being squarely targeted. Think they won't respond if the segment is significant?
Unfortunately for the EV movement, I doubt it. Concept cars generally show at least 3 years in advance and there's little to nothing out there. BMW might have the i3 improved to 150 miles, maybe, but the fact they're really pushing the range extender tells me a true BEV isn't their focus.
Even if they were interested in a model that could compete in selling 2-300,000 vehicles a year...where would they get the batteries? Where are they going to supercharge? If the Model 3 has trouble, it's not likely to be due to BEV competition. It's more likely because it's late and/or not that good.
I can give 102 reasons why Infinity and BMW are not even be close to viable.
Supercharger | Tesla Motors
Supercharger | Tesla Motors
Those who do not pay attention to history are going to be disappointed. In 2008, which was six years ago, people were predicting all kinds of EV choices. Where are they? There is the Leaf, and a few compliance cars, which are all 100 miles or less for range. Now you guys are telling me that in three years we are going to have 150-200 mile EV's from other manufacturers? Lol. It isn't going to happen. It's foolish to think otherwise.
Well.... Things have changed a bit.
Tesla has shown that people are willing to pay a lot of money for a good EV.
Nissan has basically said they will have a larger battery car in next few years ("product cycle"). That will be the biggest competitor and will probably offer a lot more value even if the range is a good deal less (140 EPA vs 190 I'm guessing).
Battery prices are dropping so bigger batteries should be forthcoming.
But otherwise I agree with you. There are a few concept cars with larger batteries but they are probably vaporware. The big manufacturers don't think that people want to be off gas that much and they are probably right.
I fear, that Model 3 won't be that kind of mass market car Tesla is hoping. This can be a huge problem, if Gigafactory is tuned for that and car is not selling. Tesla can have 5 billion Gigafactory running idle. I see this as the biggest threat for Tesla's future.
I'm afraid, Model 3 is not competitive with e.g. gasoline or diesel BMW 300 series.
Disclaimer: I'm fanboy and will most likely buy Model S when they open store here.
I'm afraid, Model 3 is not competitive with e.g. gasoline or diesel BMW 300 series.
Disclaimer: I'm fanboy and will most likely buy Model S when they open store here.
Some simple math should show how competitive the M≡ will be. Say a $40K price - $15K fuel savings over 100K miles makes it competitive to a $25K ICE, but you get a nicer car. Adjust the numbers as needed for your local pricing.
I think math is not so simple. Biggest unknown costs are possible battery replacement and resale value. Then there are also capital costs, but I guess they are small related to those uncertainties.
If you at some point need battery replacement, it eats fuel savings.
If you at some point need battery replacement, it eats fuel savings.
alt-240
press and hold alt then type 2-4-0 on the num pad then release the alt key (alt codes change with keyboard layouts, so this works for US layouts not sure about others)
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omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Exactly. The only downside is that Tesla seems to be limiting access to DIYers (No FSM, diagnostic tools, and really expensive parts) compared to many manufacturers. If Tesla has Toyota/Honda-like reliability, this won't be a huge issue, but if some of the issues they've had recently (namely trim/drive unit issues) persist then repairs (or conversely the extended warranty) may eat up a big chunk of those savings.
Outside of China and Japan, seems like "Mitsu" will confuse potential new customers. No reason I can think of why they couldn't do it there.
There is no reason at all to expect a battery replacement to be required. The NCA chemistry is rated beyond 2000 cycles, 1000 cycles on a 200 mile pack is 200,000 miles.
