Model 3 AutoPilot Apocalypse

[trm2]

What can happen when you treat a lvl 2 system like a lvl 3+ system can be seen in the youtube vid of the deadly autopilot crash in germany for example.
The situation was clear as day, but the driver simply didn`t watch the street.

In that light, the drivers you mention are irresponsible idiots imho, at least if there is any traffic.

Doesn`t help that Tesla has been blatantly ignoring UN-ECE regulations about calling the driver back to the wheel within 15 secs f.e. in the past...

Oh, I agree, while they are smart people, they are dumb drivers.

 

[Saghost]

I don't think either assumption is really warranted.

Statistically, more miles driven does mean more opportunities for an accident, but AP is a much more complete, much safer product than it was in the past - and will be even more so by the time that there are large numbers of 3s on the road. Given how rare AP accidents are now, I think the factors could easily balance each other.

Autopilot gives me a lot more time to watch other drivers, and I've never seen any linkage between the cost of the car and the amount that they are paying attention vs using phones.

And, as another poster mentioned, I've seen plenty of discussion here from folks who feel that having AP means they can text/email freely while "driving" in their S/X.

 

[JeffK]

the deadly autopilot crash in germany

Which one is this? I don't remember a fatal crash in Germany with autopilot confirmed on.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Which one is this? I don't remember a fatal crash in Germany with autopilot confirmed on.

You`re right, I double checked. The crash in germany wasn`t fatal. the only fatal one was the one with the crossing truck in Florida. Guess I mixed up the continents here.

 

[kingjamez]

What? This is pure speculation based on no evidence whatsoever. "Far more likely to text..." is a strong statement but I don't even think that "slightly more likely" has any basis in reality. I recommend you stop making up hopelessly un-scientific theories based on perceived biases.

I realize it's too small of a sample to draw any conclusions but the Model S/X owners that I know seem just as likely to engage in distracted driving as the Model 3 res holders that I know.

I completely agree that it's pure speculation... completely.

I will expand a bit on what I base that on. Remember, I'm talking in generalities though, there are always exceptions.

I'm assuming that the average Model 3 owner will be younger than the average Model S owner. This is simply a matter of economics in that it takes most people longer to work up to the point that they can afford an S over a 3. I'd wager the average 7 series owner is older than the average 3 series owner.

Sometimes, with age comes wisdom. I certainly hope I'm wiser when I'm older

I think younger drivers are more likely to txt and drive. I also think they are more likely to "trust" autopilot because technology has permeated a more significant portion of their lives.

The "iphone" generation is the market for the Model 3, more so than the S was. That said, the S certainly drew from that crowd, those who could afford it.

That's the basis of my admittedly pure speculation.

-Jim

 

[JeffK]

I completely agree that it's pure speculation... completely.

I will expand a bit on what I base that on. Remember, I'm talking in generalities though, there are always exceptions.

I'm assuming that the average Model 3 owner will be younger than the average Model S owner. This is simply a matter of economics in that it takes most people longer to work up to the point that they can afford an S over a 3. I'd wager the average 7 series owner is older than the average 3 series owner.

Sometimes, with age comes wisdom. I certainly hope I'm wiser when I'm older

I think younger drivers are more likely to txt and drive. I also think they are more likely to "trust" autopilot because technology has permeated a more significant portion of their lives.

The "iphone" generation is the market for the Model 3, more so than the S was. That said, the S certainly drew from that crowd, those who could afford it.

That's the basis of my admittedly pure speculation.

-Jim

Study: Adults more likely to text, use phones while driving than teens

 

[kingjamez]

Study: Adults more likely to text, use phones while driving than teens

Excellent article. It makes the point well.
"According to AAA, 82 percent of adults ages 25-39 reported using their phone while driving"
"And 72 percent of those between 40-59 said they also use their phone while driving"
"Adults 60 and older were the least likely to report using their cell phones while driving."

If I was guessing I'd put Model 3 owners in the 82 percent category and Model S owners at 40 and above (on average).

Any studies out there on age of ownership of Model S/X?

-Jim

 

[JeffK]

Excellent article. It makes the point well.
"According to AAA, 82 percent of adults ages 25-39 reported using their phone while driving"
"And 72 percent of those between 40-59 said they also use their phone while driving"
"Adults 60 and older were the least likely to report using their cell phones while driving."

If I was guessing I'd put Model 3 owners in the 82 percent category and Model S owners at 40 and above (on average).

Any studies out there on age of ownership of Model S/X?

-Jim

Here are two articles both citing an Edmunds study:
Tesla has a new kind of customer: The middle-class Millennial
A look at who's buying Tesla's Model X: younger, richer, and outside of CA

 

[TrickyDimitri]

With the rollout of the model 3, AP will suddenly be in orders of magnitude more cars than it is today. Given that, it is inevitable that accidents will happen. This is due strictly to usage, I'm not assigning any future blame to AP.

In addition there is a different demographic that will own and operate the Model 3 (no offence intended, I'm in that group), of folks who may not be as attentive of a driver... this is hard to phrase correctly... I guess the best way to say it is that I think the average 3 owner is far more likely to text behind the wheel than the average S or X driver.

These two factors will certainly bring some challenges for AP both in the press and politically I fear.

The flip side is that there is going to be dramatically more information for the great Tesla AI in the sky to integrate and learn from... which may make the system safer, faster, smarter.

So what do you think? Will the T3 rollout cause big problems for AP or will the added data accelerate the program so fast that it'll all just work out?

-Jim

Somebody who thinks it is okay to text while driving will do it regardless of the car they drive. Math tells me that as more Tesla vehicles are on the road, more accidents will happen in a Tesla. I think AP will absolutely come under greater scrutiny, but Tesla always has car logs to support or discredit. To be fair, I have seen plenty of YouTube videos with those supposedly smarter people in a Model S/X using autopilot as if they don't have to be attentive.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't think it is fair to say that Model 3 drivers are more likely to text while driving or be distracted more. That is a big assumption based on what we think the demographics might be for the Model 3. However, it is a statistical certainty that with more drivers using AP, the odds of accidents that may or may not be related to AP, will increase. Tesla has tried to be very clear about what AP is and how to use it properly but there always going to be bad drivers who mess up. I think the biggest issue will be when first time Tesla owners start driving the Model 3 because these will be drivers who are using AP for the very first time. They are the ones who may misunderstand what AP is or misuse it. They will need to be educated about how to use AP properly. I expect lots of AP related posts will pop up on this forum once these first time Tesla owners start driving their 3. I am not worried about current Tesla owners because they already have experience with AP. I would not be surprised if the driver facing camera in the 3 will not be used to both detect distraction driving and notify the driver to pay attention when AP is engaged and also provide a record of what happened in the event of an accident. So, while I am expecting some confusion about AP from new Model 3 drivers who have not used AP before, I don't think it will be an AP apocalypse.

 

[Zaphod]

You`re right, I double checked. The crash in germany wasn`t fatal. the only fatal one was the one with the crossing truck in Florida. Guess I mixed up the continents here.

I believe there was one in China as well where they rear-ended a street sweeper or some other equipment that was on the highway.

 

[Fresco]

I was thinking about same thing this morning on my drive in to work. It will be interesting and hope everyone utilizes the AP feature with caution including new model s and x owners. The feature is great but it still requires driver attention. The key might be that new Tesla drivers understand it is NOT full autonomy yet.

Maybe Tesla creates some sort of safety/instruction videos for new users?

Here's hoping for the best.

 

[JeffK]

I think we are going to have more trouble in the near future with the used Model S segment to be honest. As EAP and FSD improve, the hardware in the AP1 cars is going to be limited in its capabilities.

 

[C141medic]

Good luck with that, you'll never have FSD on any HW2 car. Meanwhile I'm already texting while driving to my heart's content. Android Auto reads texts to you, then asks if you want to reply. If yes, it asks for your text, reads it back to you then asks if you want to send. Works flawlessly. Once you use it you can't go back to not having it.

I'm confused. I thought that AP 2 hardware had the potential future capability of FSD. Hence the 3K option for it on the M3?

 

[JeffK]

I'm confused. I thought that AP 2 hardware had the potential future capability of FSD. Hence the 3K option for it on the M3?

Beware the AP2 FSD haters and naysayers...

 

[diplomat33]

I'm confused. I thought that AP 2 hardware had the potential future capability of FSD. Hence the 3K option for it on the M3?

It does. All AP2 cars have the hardware to support FSD when it is released.

 

[diplomat33]

Maybe Tesla creates some sort of safety/instruction videos for new users?

That would be great!

 

[stopcrazypp]

BMW and Mercedes have lane change in their AP-kits.
But the philospohy is a bit different.
While either keeps the lane and adapts the speed automatically lane change has to be manually started. The car tells you that it would like to change the lane and that it`s possible at the moment and asks you toconfirm, then the car takes over again.
BMW has summon, Mercedes and Audi I don`t know, but I´d be suprised if it wasn`t available in some form.

The other manufacturers "can", too. But they`re way more cautious and much less vocal about it than Tesla.

Tesla is like the junior with the sparkling eyes pressing down on the gas to speed up the process. Much needed imho.

It seems you don't really have a good understanding of Tesla's system either. Tesla system also requires the driver to manually start the lane change through the turn signal and only if the car determines if it is safe to do so.

 

[Saghost]

I'm confused. I thought that AP 2 hardware had the potential future capability of FSD. Hence the 3K option for it on the M3?

That's what Tesla said when they released it, and they've never made a statement to the contrary. Not everyone believes that Tesla will manage to achieve that in the end, however. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

(I'll probably replace my obsolete AP1 X at some point shortly after Tesla demonstrates Level 4, with whatever they achieve it on.)

 

[Ugliest1]

I don't have AP1 or AP2, but I did drive a loaner AP1 one day in a city (*CAREFULLY*). Unfortunately our schedule didn't allow us to find a highway for a spin. But imagining how drivers *SHOULD* behave with Autopilot (looking ahead and all around, checking the body language of cars around you to be aware of future stupidity-induced moves, etc) and knowing human nature, I couldn't help but think of the various internet meme pages along the lines of "You had ONE job!".

Yes, drivers, with AP you have ONE job. We can only hope the new ones (and existing ones, I guess! ) collectively have the will power, intelligence, and stamina to complete that one job properly, or, at the very least, contain the results/consequences to themselves only.

30 People That Had One Job And Failed