Model 3 AutoPilot Apocalypse

[kingjamez]

With the rollout of the model 3, AP will suddenly be in orders of magnitude more cars than it is today. Given that, it is inevitable that accidents will happen. This is due strictly to usage, I'm not assigning any future blame to AP.

In addition there is a different demographic that will own and operate the Model 3 (no offence intended, I'm in that group), of folks who may not be as attentive of a driver... this is hard to phrase correctly... I guess the best way to say it is that I think the average 3 owner is far more likely to text behind the wheel than the average S or X driver.

These two factors will certainly bring some challenges for AP both in the press and politically I fear.

The flip side is that there is going to be dramatically more information for the great Tesla AI in the sky to integrate and learn from... which may make the system safer, faster, smarter.

So what do you think? Will the T3 rollout cause big problems for AP or will the added data accelerate the program so fast that it'll all just work out?

-Jim

 

[Thomas Edison]

I really hope this T3 thing doesn't catch on.

 

[Ugliest1]

You probably have a point. It's really hard to fix stupidity. The question is whether the problems that *will* happen get either blown out of proportion by those with various agendas, or whether common sense will eventually prevail and idiots behind the wheel are the ones who take the consequences.

I know this doesn't answer your question... just phrases the same question in a slightly different way. But I can't predict the future for this particular trend... remember, "build an idiot-proof tool, and the universe will build a better idiot".

 

[C141medic]

Once FSD is official you can text to your hearts content

 

[boiler81]

Once FSD is official you can text to your hearts content

I'd love to see a poll of when folks really think that's going to happen (level 5). Until then no texting for me, with WA states new distracted driving law. (The only thing that will distract me, will be adjusting the ventilation on the M3 while driving.

 

[BluestarE3]

Compared to Model S/X owners, how many Model 3 owners will be willing to spend $5,000 for EAP considering it's a higher percentage of the car's overall cost? Conversely, how many will confuse EAP with FSD, considering the wider audience for the 3 may not be as discerning about the differences as the early adopters?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Compared to Model S/X owners, how many Model 3 owners will be willing to spend $5,000 for EAP considering it's a higher percentage of the car's overall cost? Conversely, how many will confuse EAP with FSD, considering the wider audience for the 3 may not be as discerning about the differences as the early adopters?

Especially given that currently they're bundling a bunch of stuff into the PUP.
When I reserved, I was thinking that I'd be paying about $1k-$2k for cold weather stuff, pay something to enable Supercharging, and then I'd stump up $2.5k for AP.
Now it is (looking like) $5k for heated mirrors and some (nice) other stuff that's "free" with them, maybe $1k for paint (because we're generally anything-but-black) and I wouldn't shell out for EAP unless it _really_ improves.

Anyway, back to the OP: certainly, more cars with Autopilot will be great for data gathering, including mapping.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Will the T3 rollout cause big problems for AP or will the added data accelerate the program so fast that it'll all just work out?

-Jim

I really hope this T3 thing doesn't catch on.

If the events of Terminator 3 really happen, then we'll have much bigger problems to worry about than AP .

On a more serious note, I don't see how PR can really get much worse. When the time comes Tesla will surely do the statistical math to show any increase in number of crashes is simply from having a larger sample size.

I also see no evidence to support that Model 3 buyers will be more distracted than Model S/X drivers. The Model 3 also has a camera facing the cabin, which Tesla may use to monitor and warn distracted drivers.

 

[JeffK]

I also see no evidence to support that Model 3 buyers will be more distracted than Model S/X drivers. The Model 3 also has a camera facing the cabin, which Tesla may use to monitor and warn distracted drivers.

I agree, if anything we might see more accidents in general with more AP cars on the road statistically speaking, of course for S/X and 3, but I feel like the accident free miles will accumulate too whereas if these same people did not have autopilot they'd be far worse off.

If anything autopilot will help those drivers who might already be at risk today.

 

[insaneoctane]

Agree with @stopcrazypp...
Owners willing to fork over $5k for this privilege will be the same as S/X owners. There will be more due to volume. Lots more volume. I think accidents per AP on the road will be similar.
Also agree that the cabin facing camera will allow Tesla to expose misusers who try to blame AP. The logs already have helped Tesla expose faulty or mis-remembered encounters.

 

[hcsharp]

In addition there is a different demographic that will own and operate the Model 3 (no offence intended, I'm in that group), of folks who may not be as attentive of a driver... this is hard to phrase correctly... I guess the best way to say it is that I think the average 3 owner is far more likely to text behind the wheel than the average S or X driver.

What? This is pure speculation based on no evidence whatsoever. "Far more likely to text..." is a strong statement but I don't even think that "slightly more likely" has any basis in reality. I recommend you stop making up hopelessly un-scientific theories based on perceived biases.

I realize it's too small of a sample to draw any conclusions but the Model S/X owners that I know seem just as likely to engage in distracted driving as the Model 3 res holders that I know.

 

[JeffK]

What? This is pure speculation based on no evidence whatsoever. "Far more likely to text..." is a strong statement but I don't even think that "slightly more likely" has any basis in reality. I recommend you stop making up hopelessly un-scientific theories based on perceived biases.

I realize it's too small of a sample to draw any conclusions but the Model S/X owners that I know seem just as likely to engage in distracted driving as the Model 3 res holders that I know.

A more accurate way I think the poster could have worded it was not "average" or "percentage" because there's no proof, instead, you can say matter of factly that more Model 3 drivers will be distracted in one way or another vs Model S/X simply because there will be 4 times as many per year in the near future and possibly 10 times as many per year in the next 3-4 years if Tesla ends up hitting 1 million+ vehicles per year.

Even if the percentage of distracted drivers was less with Model 3, the number of drivers would be higher.

 

[Lunarx]

Driving is like any skill, in that you need continuous practice to be proficient.
Once people start leaning on AP, their driving skills will deminish and they will be less prepared to handle the car, when called upon to intervene.

Not saying that will be an issue for every person, but I do worry about it with newer drivers.

The other side of the coin is, AP drivers are less likely to engage in agressive driving, which will reduce the number of dangerous situations they need to deal with.
Currently, there are far too many agressive drivers, swerving unsafely between lanes.

I strongly wish Trucks were all on AP to end all the lane hogging, for the sake of optomistic passing, they routinely engage in.

 

[tomas]

Almost every car maker now offers TACC and lane keeping in some of their range, and the % is growing. To my knowledge, Summon and Lane Changing are only functions unique to Tesla AP. Tesla just has more publicity... amazing for a company with no traditional advertising! I believe by the time Model 3 production hits its stride, Tesla will still be small fraction of cars on road with AP like capabilities. So if you are going to worry about this problem, do not confine to Tesla.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Almost every car maker now offers TACC and lane keeping in some of their range, and the % is growing. To my knowledge, Summon and Lane Changing are only functions unique to Tesla AP.

BMW and Mercedes have lane change in their AP-kits.
But the philospohy is a bit different.
While either keeps the lane and adapts the speed automatically lane change has to be manually started. The car tells you that it would like to change the lane and that it`s possible at the moment and asks you toconfirm, then the car takes over again.
BMW has summon, Mercedes and Audi I don`t know, but I´d be suprised if it wasn`t available in some form.

The other manufacturers "can", too. But they`re way more cautious and much less vocal about it than Tesla.

Tesla is like the junior with the sparkling eyes pressing down on the gas to speed up the process. Much needed imho.

 

[JeffK]

Almost every car maker now offers TACC

Not all TACC is created equal. Many do not come to a full stop or once stopped to do start going again automatically. Some do not work over a certain (useful) speed and others do not work under a certain speed.

 

[alevek]

Once FSD is official you can text to your hearts content

Good luck with that, you'll never have FSD on any HW2 car. Meanwhile I'm already texting while driving to my heart's content. Android Auto reads texts to you, then asks if you want to reply. If yes, it asks for your text, reads it back to you then asks if you want to send. Works flawlessly. Once you use it you can't go back to not having it.

 

[tomas]

Not all TACC is created equal. Many do not come to a full stop or once stopped to do start going again automatically. Some do not work over a certain (useful) speed and others do not work under a certain speed.

That is correct but I've been in recent model Subaru and Toyota, not fancy cars, and it is remarkably similar to Tesla. I think adoption is moving very fast. It wasn't too long ago that backup cameras were rare...

 

[trm2]

Small sample, but the half dozen or so Model S owners I know use autopilot specifically so they can check email and text while they are driving.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Small sample, but the half dozen or so Model S owners I know use autopilot specifically so they can check email and text while they are driving.

What can happen when you treat a lvl 2 system like a lvl 3+ system can be seen in the youtube vid of the deadly autopilot crash in germany for example.
The situation was clear as day, but the driver simply didn`t watch the street.

In that light, the drivers you mention are irresponsible idiots imho, at least if there is any traffic.

Doesn`t help that Tesla has been blatantly ignoring UN-ECE regulations about calling the driver back to the wheel within 15 secs f.e. in the past...