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Model 3 Battery size

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Hi. Here is another data point that I find interesting: Tesla Model 3 exclusive leaked specs: 0-60 under 4 sec fast and 300+ mile range options. This article was published on 30th March 2016, a day before the reveal event on the 31st. The person who leaked the information mentioned two things:
  • 0-60 under 4s
  • 300+ mile range options
In the article, it says the leak came from a "source who has provided reliable information in the past." I see this as another data point that supports the Model 3 75D with 305 miles idea.
 
The range does not scale as you suggest because of the added weight.

With the model S you got 25% more range with a 40% larger battery ( S60 vs S85).

I would guess due to lower weight and better aerodynamics the model 3 might get a bit more range than what the S did compared to the percentage increase in battery size. Perhaps 30% better range.
I cant see the Model 3 go anywhere lower than a 55 kwh base and thus making a 40% increase in that would give it a 77 kwh (typical 80 kwh branding).

Should make it go 215*1.3= 280 miles. That is if the 215 miles range comes true on the base model (which they hoped to increase). 300 miles if probably not too far off on the large battery pack version of the car.

With Elons recent statement that a 100kwh wont fit the model 3, then hopefully a 80 kwh pack will.

Its fun to speculate :)
 
With the model S you got 25% more range with a 40% larger battery ( S60 vs S85).
The available capacities were 58.5 kWh and 77.5 kWh. And with 265 vs 210 miles, that was ~26% more range with a ~32% larger battery. Weight matters, but there are also other factors. For instance, the 60 kWh Model S had a lower pack voltage, which means higher resistive losses.
 
To fulfill the reservation demand, I would expect two sizes initially, the 215 and the 300 mile packs. The 215 miler for the cost conscious who do not take many long trips and the 300 for the less cost conscious who do take longer trips. Then as sales slow they might test demand for the mid-size pack.

And those like me who would like to have a bit of fun with the car down empty roads without eating up all the charge before we can get home!
 
I can. Obviously, just an opinion, but I would be willing to bet $100 (face to face, not over the internet) that there will not be locked packs on the Model 3. It's not needed, with modular design it saves them nothing, it wastes resources, and it reduces much-needed profit margin.
If you do that bet, I hope you include one word that was missing here : initially. I agree that it will not have software limited batteries initially, but some time down the road I'm sure that there will be offered - at least for a short time - a software limited battery. Like when they increase the 55kWh battery to 65kWh (or something like that), and lets all that has ordered a 55 version get a software limited 65kWh battery pack if they are not willing to pay some more for the unlimited version.
 
It doesn't for it to sell in XXX quantity. It has to, to sell in 5 times as much as XXX.

People forget M3 is targeted for annual production and sales.
I find it highly unlikely the Model 3 would see a 5X sales by increasing range from 215 miles to 240. Furthermore, the base model is just that - the base. Tesla ia clearly betting that they can skim off some consumer surplus by offering higher range options at a cost premium.
 
I wonder how much money and time Tesla saves by limiting production lines to a somewhat larger pack that has capacity controlled by software.

My guess is virtually none. A single computer-controlled production line can assemble a great variety of configurations.

If the modular argument is correct then I think you are right. How are are electric connections and cooling plumbing handled in a dummy module ?

One possibility would be pass-throughs. Another is that the dummy modules are simply bypassed. Shouldn't be hard to design, or to assemble given the automated nature of the assembly line.

... How much time is involved in switching production lines ? I ask mostly because Tesla is highly motivated to push out cars fast to turn reservations into sales. How much downtime for retooling will Tesla accept to save money via the multiple real pack sizes approach ? ...

As above, I don't think any down time or switching of lines would be involved. I think a single computer-controlled, automated production line could assemble all the various versions. Or if they need more than one production line to meet the demand, they could divide them by whatever configuration is easier, such as battery size.

Hi. Here is another data point that I find interesting: Tesla Model 3 exclusive leaked specs: 0-60 under 4 sec fast and 300+ mile range options. This article was published on 30th March 2016, a day before the reveal event on the 31st. The person who leaked the information mentioned two things:
  • 0-60 under 4s
  • 300+ mile range options
In the article, it says the leak came from a "source who has provided reliable information in the past." I see this as another data point that supports the Model 3 75D with 305 miles idea.

That's wonderful news. IF it means under 4 seconds in the premium version in standard mode. I at first thought that the lightning acceleration of the Ludicrous mode in the Model S was what it would do any time you floored the pedal. Then I learned that it's a special mode that takes time to warm the battery and cool the motor, is hard on both, and needs a ten-minute rest period between runs.

If the premium version of the Model 3 will do zero to sixty in under 4 seconds in normal street driving, I'll be happy. If it's 5 seconds, and you have to do special preparation to get under 4, then I won't be. Unfortunately, when they advertise specs, they tend to not mention such things. They'll tout the extremes. They'll tout the base price and the highest possible acceleration of the premium version all in one paragraph. You have to dig a bit to get to the details.
 
Are you drag racing in Spokane again ? ;-)

After driving the little Zap Xebra for four years as my daily driver, getting from zero to 35 mph (NOT 60!) in about 30 seconds, I love the merging and passing capabilities of the Roadster. I enjoy flooring it from a stop up to the 35 mph speed limit, and I enjoy not having to wait until there's no car within a block before pulling into traffic. I want at a minimum Roadster acceleration in the Model 3.

When I drive the Prius (once a year, for my 6-week annual hiking trip up to Canada) I accelerate slowly for fuel efficiency because I hate burning gasoline (which was why I bought the Xebra in the first place, and loved it, and why I got the Roadster when I was unable to get a Leaf due to Nissan's incompetence). But there's no reason for an EV to be slow.

One time I found myself at a stop light next to a hot-rod Ford (I only knew it was a Ford because it said "FORD" on it). It had the open wheels, and no top, and no muffler. And I left it behind, until I reached 35, and it finally caught up with me and passed me going over the speed limit. You gotta know that was a nice feeling. I don't want to go back to gasoline-level performance in an electric car. ;)
 
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I don't want to go back to gasoline-level performance in an electric car.
At 5 seconds for 0-60, it will be a rare gasser you have to tolerate. Fwiw though, I'll be surprised if the premium Model 3 does not have daily driving 4 second speeds.

We bought a LEAF a month ago for a commuter car and to satisfy my EV cravings while waiting for the Model 3. I cannot really say much about the acceleration since I don't think I've pushed the go pedal much past half yet -- no need or desire. I will say though that I enjoy the driving more than in our Prius, and I am definitely a safer driver. This stems from my incessant peeks at the Prius displays in order to maximize MPG. In the LEAF I keep my eyes on the road and the surroundings.
 
At 5 seconds for 0-60, it will be a rare gasser you have to tolerate. Fwiw though, I'll be surprised if the premium Model 3 does not have daily driving 4 second speeds.

We bought a LEAF a month ago for a commuter car and to satisfy my EV cravings while waiting for the Model 3. I cannot really say much about the acceleration since I don't think I've pushed the go pedal much past half yet -- no need or desire. I will say though that I enjoy the driving more than in our Prius, and I am definitely a safer driver. This stems from my incessant peeks at the Prius displays in order to maximize MPG. In the LEAF I keep my eyes on the road and the surroundings.
I've pushed it all the way in my Leaf. It's quite impressive. I know I have surprised some people at the stop light drag race.:)
 
... We bought a LEAF a month ago for a commuter car and to satisfy my EV cravings while waiting for the Model 3. I cannot really say much about the acceleration since I don't think I've pushed the go pedal much past half yet -- no need or desire. ...

Sigh! You are a much better person than I am. I floored the pedal on my Roadster the first time I had the opportunity to do so safely. And when I had the opportunity to (briefly) test-drive a P85D I did the same, as well as taking the curvy road as fast as I dared. I didn't used to be a speed demon, and when the only EV I could get was the little garden-pest-green Zap Xebra, I drove it happily every time I went out except for the rare occasions when I needed to go farther than its 40-mile range. But in my Roadster, I floor it whenever I can, and I want my Model 3 to be at least as quick, and preferably quicker.

OTOH, my philosophy in the Prius, from the day I got it, was "just drive it." I never played the MPG game. I didn't floor it, but I didn't baby it either. And especially, I never extended short drives into long ones to show better average mpg numbers, as I know some people did. Even though in January, 2004, in Fargo, North Dakota, when it was 20 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, with my 4-mile commute that only gave the engine just enough time to begin getting warm, I got the worst mpg of any Prius anywhere.

Off topic: We had snow today. The roads were still pretty good while I was out, but I really wanted to be in my Model 3 with the dual motors and AWD.