Model 3 - Canada Delivery Prediction

[sitter_k]

Moved a bunch of stuff over...

Model 3 estimator says January. It's very scientific.

 

[Zapped]

My prediction is Q1 - 2018... because :

1) my Model S came in December 2012, 6 months after the US launch
2) the Model 3 is suppose to be simpler to make : less assembly parts.
3) Americans want Canadians to do some beta testing this time.
4) And finally, the seat belt latch buttons can be black

 

[hingisfan]

Pretty sure the West to East thing will only be for USA. This allows them to keep early deliveries close to the factory in case an issue arises that needs a retrofit. I also doubt it would be efficient to not batch the Canadian cars together on a line(s). I'm guessing deliveries spring 2018 across all of Canada.

 

[Doug_G]

I'd guess 6 months after Tesla starts shipping in the USA.

Model 3 estimator says January. It's very scientific.

Oh, in that case at least March. Tesla is always overoptimistic.

 

[Canuck]

Pretty sure the West to East thing will only be for USA.

You might be right. Was the S/X delivered to West/East at the same time in Canada?

 

[doubeld]

I'm guessing that with the numbers coming in, they'll do them in batches of train cars to regional hubs.
Two trains filled up ready to Vancouver --> Go!
One train filled up to Calgary/Edmonton --> Go! (hah! I wish..)
Three trains to GTA filled up --> Go!
Three trains to Montreal filled up --> Go!
One truck filled ready to go to Winnipeg --> Go!

 

[Colsla]

You might be right. Was the S/X delivered to West/East at the same time in Canada?

I Beleive the very first one was delivered I'm Vancouver, but Toronto didn't take much longer. Like a month or so if my memory serves right

 

[Drone Flyer]

So checking my math presuming the estimates are correct, 500,000 Model 3 cars a year multiply that by the 2 million reservations means 4 years down the road for many who reserved late.
What a farce!

 

[MikeBur]

I'd guess 6 months after Tesla starts shipping in the USA.



Oh, in that case at least March. Tesla is always overoptimistic.

Are you purposely avoiding stating which year to increase your odds? /s

 

[hingisfan]

So checking my math presuming the estimates are correct, 500,000 Model 3 cars a year multiply that by the 2 million reservations means 4 years down the road for many who reserved late.
What a farce!

2 million reservations?

 

[wayner]

Yeah - it is more like 400k. This is from a recent Motley Fool article: 'So the company is not actively trying to grow the Model 3 line, and the first year's worth of production is already effectively allocated to current reservation holders; Tesla's site says new reservations won't deliver until "mid 2018 or later."'

 

[RAM_Eh]

I am guessing fall 2018 before they hit Canada.

 

[doubeld]

The only thing that concerns me is that if they start delivering Model 3s in Canada in 2018, that means that they have not done a full 12 months of testing. I'm worried that the winter testing regimen will not be thorough and the first winter will uncover some bugs/defects that need to be fixed at the factory. Really, would there be enough Employees/Californians/Western Americans doing enough Winter road trips in the 2017/2018 ski season to really put this car through its winter paces?

 

[wayner]

@Doubled - You are probably right unless they are doing testing at a cold-weather facility - GM has a cold-weather testing facility in Kapuskasing, ON and I believe they may rent it out to other automakers.

There are posts on here from some of the early owners of the Model S who showed some of the shortcomings of the vehicle in winter. Many of those were fixed but some were not, like the sensor under the front bumper that is VERY prone to collecting snow and slush given its design. But you hope that they took what they learned about winterizing vehicles from the Model S/X and applied it to the 3.

 

[doubeld]

I absolutely do hope they do that, but with a change in body shape/style, there are bound to be a bunch of gotchas. Just the turbulence of wind going over panels, causing snow to ice up and cake onto certain parts of the car or sensors can have huge impacts on steering, aerodynamics, and suspension, let alone the autopilot safety features.

I am so thankful they get rid of the buggy and flashy auto-presenting door handles. Best new feature of the car in my opinion is the manual flip-open door handles.

 

[TrevTremaine]

As far as production differences, between Canada and the US, the only ones i can think of are Seat belts (the Release latches have to be Red in color), Plus Speedo, and day time running lights (both are just software) Their might be some emissions testing differences but that will not matter for the Model 3. At any rate i doubt it will be anything near as many changes as a car destined for England.

I believe there's still differences beyond what's quoted above. I think there's issues over bumpers (Canadian standards means better resiliency), as well as testing of autonomous driving and Summon (one can summon with the keyfob in the US but can't in Canada as I understand it). Don't forget there's probably electrical (CSA) standards to be tested, reviewed and certified.

 

[Drone Flyer]

2 million reservations?

I think I meant 400,000 reservations and only 100,000 Model 3 cars built each year so essentially, a 4 year wait!

 

[Doug_G]

@Doubled - You are probably right unless they are doing testing at a cold-weather facility - GM has a cold-weather testing facility in Kapuskasing, ON and I believe they may rent it out to other automakers.

There are posts on here from some of the early owners of the Model S who showed some of the shortcomings of the vehicle in winter. Many of those were fixed but some were not, like the sensor under the front bumper that is VERY prone to collecting snow and slush given its design. But you hope that they took what they learned about winterizing vehicles from the Model S/X and applied it to the 3.

Yeah there were a bunch of shortcomings. Tesla did a video showing their winter testing but it was hilariously unrealistic, showing how the car handled on snow/ice but not how it dealt with actual snowstorms, salt, etc. The two worst issues were: the windshields would frost over and couldn't be cleared, and my front bumper carrier corroded clear through near the mounting bolts due to salt water bridging the dissimilar metal isolation. To their credit these things were fixed very quickly.

I suspect Tesla has learned from these errors and won't repeat them... but they will probably discover new ones.

I believe there's still differences beyond what's quoted above. I think there's issues over bumpers (Canadian standards means better resiliency), as well as testing of autonomous driving and Summon (one can summon with the keyfob in the US but can't in Canada as I understand it). Don't forget there's probably electrical (CSA) standards to be tested, reviewed and certified.

CSA electrical safety standards do not apply to automobiles. Their EVSE hardware is already certified and does not need to be changed for Model 3.

 

[TrevTremaine]

CSA electrical safety standards do not apply to automobiles. Their EVSE hardware is already certified and does not need to be changed for Model 3.

Even for the charging kit that each car is equipped with, or is it that they will have the same chargers as in the Model S and X?

 

[Doug_G]

Even for the charging kit that each car is equipped with, or is it that they will have the same chargers as in the Model S and X?

I fully expect the charging hardware will be identical to that for X and S. The plug will be the same, or they wouldn't be able to Supercharge. There's no reason to change anything else.