Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[chojn1]

I've seen a few places where people are misunderstanding the data from the spreadsheet specifically about the number of owners not yet invited. Just thought I'll add a little clarification here.

The percentage of owners with invites who reported to the spreadsheet are much higher than the percentage of owners who have not been invited. So you cannot directly compare the two groups. I compensated for this by adding an adjustment factor based on the ratio of the sample rate of each group:

This gives a better picture of the relative number of owners yet to be invited. Regardless, all owners who want first production cars (LR, RWD, PUP, Black interior) should have their car by sometime in March. So some non-owners should start receiving invites sometime in February.

CJ

 

[Garlan Garner]

I guess the fact that it does not matter anymore who reserved when......that the estimator and every other tool is out of the window.

This is just insulting to anyone who waited in line or reserved on the first day.

Tesla Model 3 now available beyond first-day reservation holders – check your account

 

[Moderatefan]

This is just insulting to anyone who waited in line or reserved on the first day.

I'm under impression that non-first-day invites are sent to owners outside CA, maybe those states did not have very many 1st day reservations and CA delivery channels are just at capacity... Is there evidence that CA owners from 2nd day received invites and 1st day reservations are still waiting?

 

[aronth5]

I guess the fact that it does not matter anymore who reserved when......that the estimator and every other tool is out of the window.

This is just insulting to anyone who waited in line or reserved on the first day.

Tesla Model 3 now available beyond first-day reservation holders – check your account

I'm certainly not insulted unless I'm misunderstanding.
I've always assumed regardless of the fact I reserved in store by 10:15am (Dedham, Ma) that all existing owners would have the opportunity to purchase the car before me.

Did you think otherwise?
thank-you

 

[juanmedina]

I'm certainly not insulted unless I'm misunderstanding.
I've always assumed regardless of the fact I reserved in store by 10:15am (Dedham, Ma) that all existing owners would have the opportunity to purchase the car before me.

Did you think otherwise?
thank-you

I did. I can understand jumping in front of non owners if they put heir order on the 1st day...other than that is BS.

 

[aronth5]

I did. I can understand jumping in front of non owners if they put heir order on the 1st day...other than that is BS.

I don't actually disagree and in fact started a thread over this very question last year. However, regardless of whether I agree or not I have always been of the opinion that existing owners will take priority.
I certainly don't feel insulted as Tesla has been clear about this from the beginning. There is difference between disagreeing and feeling insulted as referenced in an earlier post. Hope this helps.

 

[Big Dog]

This is just insulting to anyone who waited in line or reserved on the first day.

Why is that? Elon always said that owners get first dibs. He never said that only owners prior to April 1 get first dibs. In other words, purchase an X/S in September and jump the non-owner line. In fact, that is exactly what happened to an office colleague: reserved online during the reveal, as a non-owner. Purchased an X in August and thus, became an owner, and then was invited to configure in late Dec.

 

[chojn1]

Do you guys get upset when first class passengers get to board the plane first?

Most of us lined up and plunk down our $1000 for a sight unseen car. They promised nothing before hand - no delivery timeline, no alcantara, no line waiter gifts. We didn't know about the battery range, the performance, or even how it looked. I for one am pretty happy with the product they are producing and will not be asking for my $1000 back. The wait time is just a by product of how popular this car is.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

 

[aronth5]

Tweeted in April 2016 which couldn't have been a clearer message from Elon that owners get priority.
Not sure why so many seem to be surprised over what is happening.

 

[ggies07]

Do you guys get upset when first class passengers get to board the plane first?

Most of us lined up and plunk down our $1000 for a sight unseen car. They promised nothing before hand - no delivery timeline, no alcantara, no line waiter gifts. We didn't know about the battery range, the performance, or even how it looked. I for one am pretty happy with the product they are producing and will not be asking for my $1000 back. The wait time is just a by product of how popular this car is.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

I'm going to post this again: go to the 12 minute mark. There is some truth for line-waiters being appreciated and it's by the man himself.

 

[azred]

Tweeted in April 2016 which couldn't have been a clearer message from Elon that owners get priority.
Not sure why so many seem to be surprised over what is happening.

View attachment 275804

Yep. If anything was unclear it was the effect of selling your S or X. But those people also provided support to the company by buying cars, so it doesn't surprise me former owners also received priority.

Another thing that was made clear by Elon is that those of us who waited in line will get something special (certainly not just the drawing given to everyone). I'm anxious to get my special gift. I'm thinking an upgraded headliner.

 

[suwaneedad]

I'm going to post this again: go to the 12 minute mark. There is some truth for wait-liners being appreciated and it's by the man himself.

Cut him some slack for anything said that night; he'd just been dumped by his girlfriend!

 

[Moderatefan]

Another thing that was made clear by Elon is that those of us who waited in line will get something special (certainly not just the drawing given to everyone). I'm anxious to get my special gift. I'm thinking an upgraded headliner.

Didn't those people getting cars now also wait? I don't think they are getting anything explicit right now. How about: those who waited more than a year get to keep 4.4sec 0-60. And the others will get it software limited at 5.1sec?

 

[wwu123]

What the ...?

My delivery estimate had been Nov 17 - Jan 18, clearly that wasn't happening. Nothing in my inbox this month, so I resigned myself to waiting many more months. But looking at this graph, I thought that's a higher ratio than I expected for that cohort. Yes I logged in a few weeks ago and nothing ....but you're saying there's a chance.

So logged in to My Tesla, and --- ready to be configured! Thank you to this thread for bringing my hopes back up...

I am an owner, but only put my Model 3 reservation down in 2017 when I picked up the S. Honestly did not expect to be able to get it this early!

 

[pxthree]

What the ...?

My delivery estimate had been Nov 17 - Jan 18, clearly that wasn't happening. Nothing in my inbox this month, so I resigned myself to waiting many more months. But looking at this graph, I thought that's a higher ratio than I expected for that cohort. Yes I logged in a few weeks ago and nothing ....but you're saying there's a chance.

So logged in to My Tesla, and --- ready to be configured! Thank you to this thread for bringing my hopes back up...

I am an owner, but only put my Model 3 reservation down in 2017 when I picked up the S. Honestly did not expect to be able to get it this early!

When in 2017 did you purchase the Model S? When did you put in your reservation for the Model 3?

 

[JBare]

But why rush to buy an LR with extended range that you don't want, for $9k, in order to obtain a $7.5k tax credit?

Maybe I mis-worded my response. I do not plan to order the LR even if I had to in order to get the credit. If it comes to that I would have to think long and hard about just requesting my reservation deposit back and waiting a year or 3 when I can compare to other electric cars in the market

 

[nogajim]

I've seen a few places where people are misunderstanding the data from the spreadsheet specifically about the number of owners not yet invited. Just thought I'll add a little clarification here.

The percentage of owners with invites who reported to the spreadsheet are much higher than the percentage of owners who have not been invited. So you cannot directly compare the two groups. I compensated for this by adding an adjustment factor based on the ratio of the sample rate of each group:

View attachment 275797
This gives a better picture of the relative number of owners yet to be invited. Regardless, all owners who want first production cars (LR, RWD, PUP, Black interior) should have their car by sometime in March. So some non-owners should start receiving invites sometime in February.

CJ

How do you estimate the different sampling rates? Can you look at the data for people who entered before there were significant invites?

 

[chojn1]

How do you estimate the different sampling rates? Can you look at the data for people who entered before there were significant invites?

We have total number of reservations and owner reservations from Tesla releases. We then factor in the number of new S and X sales since those releases for an updated Tesla owners reservation number.

We also know the number of cars delivered in the last months of last year per Tesla report. It is kind of convenient that all those are to owners. We use the number of invites and deliveries reported to our spreadsheet during those months to calculate invites and deliveries sample rates. The not yet invited total is just a simple subtraction of the invites from the total reservations. We use that number and the not yet invited numbers reported to us to calculate not yet invited sampling rate.

Hope that is not too confusing.
CJ

 

[Moderatefan]

I am an owner, but only put my Model 3 reservation down in 2017 when I picked up the S. Honestly did not expect to be able to get it this early!

This indeed seems suspicios. I think we still have 1st day owners/reservationists from CA who are not able to configure yet... Is that correct? Then why would someone else from CA be able to configure with a later reservation date?

 

[EinSV]

This indeed seems suspicios. I think we still have 1st day owners/reservationists from CA who are not able to configure yet... Is that correct? Then why would someone else from CA be able to configure with a later reservation date?

Tallying up entries from the spreadsheet so far, from this week's batch it looks like 37 people who reserved on April 1 or later were invited to configure versus only 6 who reserved on March 31 (plus 1 from March 30(?)).

So roughly 80-85% of the latest batch of configure invites appear to be from people who reserved April 1 or later. Model 3 Invites