Model 3 displacement of California gas usage

[RubberToe]

Came across an interesting website showing daily California gas usage. Check this out:

Kind of interesting how the peak gas usage was in 2001-2007, then assuming the recession pulled it way down, and it never recovered. Probably related to cars getting better mileage. So we went from a high of ~9,000,000 gallons per day down to April 2017 level of 4,330,000 gallons per day.

Here is a back of the napkin calculation of what a large scale deployment will do to gas consumption here. Assume every Model 3 displaces a car that averages 25MPG. And further assume that Tesla sells 20,000 Model 3's per month starting in December, and 60% are sold in California, so 12,000 Model 3's sold in California per month.

Assume 1,000 miles driven per month per car. The 12,000 Model 3's then drive 12,000,000 miles per month. At 25MPG, the gas to drive those miles would be 480,000 gallons. If there are 30 days in a month, then thats 16,000 gallons per day.

So 16,000 / 4,330,700 = 0.00369. or 0.37% rounded off.

So the expected result of 12,000 Model 3's hitting the road in California in a month is that gas consumption will decline by 0.37% per month every month going forward. If Tesla doubles production to 40,000 cars per month, then the 0.37% gets doubled too to more like 0.64%.

While this isn't a lot, obviously, its something that is going to keep increasing over time. Especially when you consider that others will also start ramping EV production. As the EV ramp continues, the daily gas consumption will fall in sync. There has got to be some way to monetize that

RT

 

[Waiting4M3]

The more fuel efficient cars like Prius tend to be used more often as taxis/Uber/Lyft cars, so the 1000 mile/month # may need to adjusted up.

Also the drop wasn't a step function right at 2008, it gradually dropped off after 2007, and hit steady state in 2014. I suspect it's the wider adoption of higher gas mileage from 2007 to 2014 that did the trick, maybe also some effect from more tele-commuting, more online-shopping and less visits to the local stores.

 

[tpatana]

Also the electricity needs to be generated somewhere, and until new non-fossil plants are installed it'll be mostly fossil fuels providing the electricity for your Tesla. And the more Teslas there are, the more sure it'll actually run on fossil-fuel powered power plant... So it really isn't _that_ green as people want to think. Still much greener than ICE, but calling it zero emission means it's zero emission in your neighborhood but there's still going to be emissions somewhere.

 

[cschock]

Also the electricity needs to be generated somewhere, and until new non-fossil plants are installed it'll be mostly fossil fuels providing the electricity for your Tesla. And the more Teslas there are, the more sure it'll actually run on fossil-fuel powered power plant... So it really isn't _that_ green as people want to think. Still much greener than ICE, but calling it zero emission means it's zero emission in your neighborhood but there's still going to be emissions somewhere.

Or not. You may not be aware that California is aggressively mandating renewable energy sources for supplying the grid, the target being 50% by 2030 and 33% by 2020. By switching to electric vehicles this has a MULTIPLIER effect on this mandate since the energy supplied by the grid will rise for every new EV at the same time that the grid is becoming cleaner. Not to mention that EVs are inherently more energy efficient compared to ICEs (even the Model S, a large car, is rated in MPGe at double or triple a typical car.)

 

[eloder]

Also the electricity needs to be generated somewhere, and until new non-fossil plants are installed it'll be mostly fossil fuels providing the electricity for your Tesla. And the more Teslas there are, the more sure it'll actually run on fossil-fuel powered power plant... So it really isn't _that_ green as people want to think. Still much greener than ICE, but calling it zero emission means it's zero emission in your neighborhood but there's still going to be emissions somewhere.

Refining and transporting oil/gas also involves significant electricity generation in of itself. A dirty grid for EVs still means a dirty grid for refining oil and gas.

Perfect shouldn't be the enemy of progress.

 

[DR61]

So it really isn't _that_ green as people want to think. Still much greener than ICE, but calling it zero emission means it's zero emission in your neighborhood but there's still going to be emissions somewhere.

Your electricity in Redmond, WA is mostly hydro, right? Of course there is some emissions for dam construction and maintenance, but still total emissions for electric energy is very low over the lifetime of the hydro plant.

 

[melindav]

Kind of interesting how the peak gas usage was in 2001-2007, then assuming the recession pulled it way down, and it never recovered. Probably related to cars getting better mileage. So we went from a high of ~9,000,000 gallons per day down to April 2017 level of 4,330,000 gallons per day.

2008 was also when gas was between $4-$5/gal (at least on the west coast). I think fuel prices made people think differently about how/when they drive and what their next vehicle would cost them to operate.

 

[RubberToe]

Or not. You may not be aware that California is aggressively mandating renewable energy sources for supplying the grid, the target being 50% by 2030 and 33% by 2020. By switching to electric vehicles this has a MULTIPLIER effect on this mandate since the energy supplied by the grid will rise for every new EV at the same time that the grid is becoming cleaner. Not to mention that EVs are inherently more energy efficient compared to ICEs (even the Model S, a large car, is rated in MPGe at double or triple a typical car.)

In one of my other threads, I show how the last two months, 30% of California electricity came from renewable sources. And that excludes residential solar panels.

RT

 

[tpatana]

Your electricity in Redmond, WA is mostly hydro, right? Of course there is some emissions for dam construction and maintenance, but still total emissions for electric energy is very low over the lifetime of the hydro plant.

Not sure on Redmond, you could be right.

However, in big scale, if we assume electricity supply and demand are balanced, (and hydro doesn't need to use any overflow ports). Now if you add EV car to the grid to increase demand, without building more renewables the only way to add supply are fossil sources.

That's why any added EV runs on fossil until the supply catches up by adding renewables. Hence the production side should ramp up plenty also, not just the cars. I'll toast the day when we get rid of all fossil fuels on both energy and transportation. I think the fossil fuel emissions/pollution is one of the worst things of our lifetime.

 

[cwerdna]

Your electricity in Redmond, WA is mostly hydro, right? Of course there is some emissions for dam construction and maintenance, but still total emissions for electric energy is very low over the lifetime of the hydro plant.

You can look up the electricity generation mix for any zip code via How clean is the electricity I use? - Power Profiler | Clean Energy | US EPA. Unfortunately, some of the data they use is old. An example zip you can use for Redmond, WA is 98052.

Puget Sound Energy at Electric Supply is the provider for that area and their 2015 mix is there.

 

[cwerdna]

The more fuel efficient cars like Prius tend to be used more often as taxis/Uber/Lyft cars, so the 1000 mile/month # may need to adjusted up.
...
I suspect it's the wider adoption of higher gas mileage from 2007 to 2014 that did the trick, maybe also some effect from more tele-commuting, more online-shopping and less visits to the local stores.

Yep on the 1st point.

I suspect that a fair amount is also due to wide availability and usage of EVs and PHEVs due to CA's green and white HOV stickers. Nissan Leaf first became available Dec 2010. And, then IIRC, the first two PHEVs to qualify for green stickers were the 2012 PiP and 2012 Chevy Volt (not the '11) in 1st half of 2012: 2012 Prius Plug-In Now Arriving at Dealers - Autotrader and Chevy Volts Built After Feb. 6 to Qualify for California's Coveted HOV Stickers.

And, now there are a ton of EV and PHEV choices that qualify per Eligible Vehicles - Single Occupant Carpool Lane Use Stickers.

 

[melindav]

Not sure on Redmond, you could be right.

However, in big scale, if we assume electricity supply and demand are balanced, (and hydro doesn't need to use any overflow ports). Now if you add EV car to the grid to increase demand, without building more renewables the only way to add supply are fossil sources.

That's why any added EV runs on fossil until the supply catches up by adding renewables. Hence the production side should ramp up plenty also, not just the cars. I'll toast the day when we get rid of all fossil fuels on both energy and transportation. I think the fossil fuel emissions/pollution is one of the worst things of our lifetime.

the other consideration that should come into this is each gallon of gasoline uses between 6-12kW to refine.
So my current car takes about 11gal each fill up and I generally go 250 miles between fill ups. So at the low end of the refinery energy usage, my gasoline car is using 66kWh off the grid with each 11 gallon fill up. SO... assuming a Tesla gets roughly 250/66kWh, the energy is a wash.
Obviously, for a total wash, it would have to be someone living in a refinery town, but thinking across the country's grid there is no more usage to speak of between the EV and the gas car's electricity usage from the grid.
@cwerdna - the bigger problem than the Power Profile being out of date is it lumps too large of areas together. For me (in 98661) the majority of my power comes from hydro, but this website includes all of OR, WA, ID, MT, WY, UT, NV into the stats it gives for me. Some of those states use nearly 100% coal that all gets dumped into the same graph.

 

[swaltner]

the other consideration that should come into this is each gallon of gasoline uses between 6-12kW to refine.
So my current car takes about 11gal each fill up and I generally go 250 miles between fill ups. So at the low end of the refinery energy usage, my gasoline car is using 66kWh off the grid with each 11 gallon fill up. SO... assuming a Tesla gets roughly 250/66kWh, the energy is a wash.

It does not take 6 kWh of electricity off the grid to refine a gallon of gas. The EV community needs to stop propagating that myth. It's a good soundbite, but it's incorrect.

EV Myths From ‘Our Side’

 

[RubberToe]

2008 was also when gas was between $4-$5/gal (at least on the west coast). I think fuel prices made people think differently about how/when they drive and what their next vehicle would cost them to operate.

Los Angeles county gas prices first hit $4.00 in June 2008. They were last above $4.00 in July 2014. The peak month was July 2008 when they hit $4.57.

 

[RubberToe]

It does not take 6 kWh of electricity off the grid to refine a gallon of gas. The EV community needs to stop propagating that myth. It's a good soundbite, but it's incorrect.

EV Myths From ‘Our Side’

The way I look at this (YVMV your vision may vary) is that the Myth busters link says that refining gasoline does take a large amount of energy. Some of the required energy no doubt comes from electricity, and some comes from the refining process itself (i.e. burning fuel).

When you don't burn a gallon of gasoline to power your car, you are not only not burning the gasoline, you are not using the energy used to refine that gallon of gasoline, whatever the source.

The Petroleum for transportation era is going to be coming to a rapid decline. The end of the era begins in earnest on 7-28-17.

RT

 

[cpa]

To expound on RubberToe's numbers, we are also ignoring the reduction in gasoline taxes. It is somewhat unclear just how much per gallon is assessed in California, but a reasonable estimate is

$0.184 federal
0.390 California excise tax
0.350 California sales tax (varies by jurisdiction and retail price)
0.100 charged to refiners through cap and trade

$1.024 total, let's just call it an even dollar.

So, the federal and state treasuries are losing out on $480,000 per month, or $5,760,000 per year, and will only go up as more EVs hit the road not only from Tesla but also from other manufacturers.

And California's legislature increased the state excise tax effective October 1 by twelve cents per gallon.

 

[RubberToe]

To expound on RubberToe's numbers, we are also ignoring the reduction in gasoline taxes. It is somewhat unclear just how much per gallon is assessed in California, but a reasonable estimate is

$0.184 federal
0.390 California excise tax
0.350 California sales tax (varies by jurisdiction and retail price)
0.100 charged to refiners through cap and trade

$1.024 total, let's just call it an even dollar.

So, the federal and state treasuries are losing out on $480,000 per month, or $5,760,000 per year, and will only go up as more EVs hit the road not only from Tesla but also from other manufacturers.

And California's legislature increased the state excise tax effective October 1 by twelve cents per gallon.

The gas tax increase will take effect on Nov. 1, the transportation improvement fee takes effect on Jan. 1, 2018, and the zero-emission vehicle registration fee takes effect on July 1, 2020.

RT

 

[cpa]

Thanks, RT. I did not take a lot of time to research the various components of the increase(s).

And note, the legislature has become more and more enamored of the term, "fee." Somehow that word does not conjure up the angry feelings that the word "tax" does. It is how they have been able to back door increases without the super majority necessitated by initiative.

 

[cwerdna]

It does not take 6 kWh of electricity off the grid to refine a gallon of gas. The EV community needs to stop propagating that myth. It's a good soundbite, but it's incorrect.

EV Myths From ‘Our Side’

Indeed. Seems like a myth. The 6 kWh electricity to refine gasoline would drive an electric car the same distance as a gasser? has further discussion.

 

[SageBrush]

And California's legislature increased the state excise tax effective October 1 by twelve cents per gallon.

A tax collection of 84 cents a gallon is increasing to 96 cents, so a 1/7 increase.
We can have a chat again when the CA fleet is 1/7th EV miles