Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

[Knightshade]

From a value perspective they can easily price it at $60k or even higher and it would be justified. However I think they will price it under $55k so people can utilize the tax credit and increase sales volume. Even though they are initially taking a hit on margin, they will make up for it by offering a Ludicrous mode boost option. Given the sheer number of people ordering it because of the tax credit, they would need minimal take rate for the boost option to increase their margins making this version very profitable for them.

This causes serious pricing problems for the LR and RWD models however- since they can not use the credit. They'd need to slash the prices of both by thousands if the new performance model was under 55k and qualified for the credit.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

This causes serious pricing problems for the LR and RWD models however- since they can not use the credit. They'd need to slash the prices of both by thousands if the new performance model was under 55k and qualified for the credit.

Maybe they intend on selling more Performance models than LR models? They only care about sales volumes and profit. If the regulations make the Performance Model significantly cheaper then they could just sell more of that one. Remember when they stopped producing the Model 3 LR for almost a year and the only AWD Model 3 you could get was the Model 3 Performance?

 

[eivissa]

What is the highest amperage you have seen for the combined front and rear motors at a given speed? I think the most I have seen is 1373A @ 55 mph. Is it possible that it could go higher than that with the current Panasonic battery?

1340A I beleive, but only on a colder pack with lower SOC when then BMS tries to compensate the lower voltage. If the pack was very hot and full the absolute max was around 1300A.

current rear motor(831A) never gets to the theoretical 850A limit

Close, but 840A is the official limit, according to the certification.

I also allowed the max amperage of the combined motors to go up to 1,500A. That assumption may or may not be reasonable but it is hard to tell how much headroom the Panasonic battery has vs. the LG battery.

This is all ways too optimistic in my view. The Panasonic NCA naturally has more power than the LG NMC, because of it's low voltage drop. I don't think Tesla will increase anything on the Panasonic in order to not make this power gap any bigger than it already is. What they can do on both cars is remove the artificial torque limitation to gain 0-60/0-100 times. This, in combination with the better power at higher speeds due to the 4D2, will improve acceleration in pretty much all speed ranges. Acceleration will probably be just below 3.0s but nothing that even gets close to Plaid numbers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772926663518511274

 

[Knightshade]

Maybe they intend on selling more Performance models than LR models? They only care about sales volumes and profit. If the regulations make the Performance Model significantly cheaper then they could just sell more of that one. Remember when they stopped producing the Model 3 LR for almost a year and the only AWD Model 3 you could get was the Model 3 Performance?

FWIW they did that because they no longer had enough batteries (they had to shift them to the Y as it continued ramping in Austin and it was more profitable to sell a LR AWD Y than a 3).... when they brought it back it was with non-US cells but managed to game the system to qualify for IRA credits in 2023.

They no longer qualify though.... I agree they could just kill it off again, that'd mean they could leave the RWD pricing about where it is, but I'd like that idea a lot better if they were going to offer a wheel option other than the usual 20" boat anchors on the performance version.

 

[Surfer]

This causes serious pricing problems for the LR and RWD models however- since they can not use the credit. They'd need to slash the prices of both by thousands if the new performance model was under 55k and qualified for the credit.

Is it possible the EV tax credit qualification issues with Model 3 RWD and AWD will be resolved in sync with the Model 3 "Plaid" release?

 

[mpgxsvcd]

1340A I beleive, but only on a colder pack with lower SOC when then BMS tries to compensate the lower voltage. If the pack was very hot and full the absolute max was around 1300A.

Close, but 840A is the official limit, according to the certification.

This is all ways too optimistic in my view. The Panasonic NCA naturally has more power than the LG NMC, because of it's low voltage drop. I don't think Tesla will increase anything on the Panasonic in order to not make this power gap any bigger than it already is. What they can do on both cars is remove the artificial torque limitation to gain 0-60/0-100 times. This, in combination with the better power at higher speeds due to the 4D2, will improve acceleration in pretty much all speed ranges. Acceleration will probably be just below 3.0s but nothing that even gets close to Plaid numbers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772926663518511274

I had used 840A in my spreadsheet but accidently wrote 850A in the post.

It definitely could be optimistic in the power levels I used but honestly I think I was pessimistic in how quick the car would be if it had those power levels. The increase in power from 0 mph to 60 mph alone would shave huge amounts off the 1/4 mile time since every acceleration increase at the beginning compounds your reduction in 1/4 mile time.

I still think those times would be doable and still well away from the Plaid's claimed 1.99 second 0-60 mph time with rollout subtracted.

 

[eivissa]

Well, fingers crossed you are right. I've been on the pessimistic side in pretty much all my projections. Would love to be proven wrong and see a final product that blows away the competition and its predecessor!

 

[mpgxsvcd]

FWIW they did that because they no longer had enough batteries (they had to shift them to the Y as it continued ramping in Austin and it was more profitable to sell a LR AWD Y than a 3).... when they brought it back it was with non-US cells but managed to game the system to qualify for IRA credits in 2023.

They no longer qualify though.... I agree they could just kill it off again, that'd mean they could leave the RWD pricing about where it is, but I'd like that idea a lot better if they were going to offer a wheel option other than the usual 20" boat anchors on the performance version.

My understanding is that the Model 3 LR and the Model 3 Performance used the exact same 82.1 kWh Panasonic battery when they stopped making the Model 3 LR back then.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Well, fingers crossed you are right. I've been on the pessimistic side in pretty much all my projections. Would love to be proven wrong and see a final product that blows away the competition and its predecessor!

You are probably right but we can all dream. Thanks for all of the effort you have put into giving us this great information. It is very much appreciated.

 

[milesr3]

Torque at the motor is irrelevant.

I doubt that. Aren't you calculating the horsepower from the torque?

 

[Knightshade]

My understanding is that the Model 3 LR and the Model 3 Performance used the exact same 82.1 kWh Panasonic battery when they stopped making the Model 3 LR back then.

Right.

They no longer had enough of them because the Y also was using that battery and they were scaling up production of the Y (which was more profitable).

So they killed the LR AWD, and moved that US-made 2710 cell supply over to the Y. The P was a relatively small seller (and with better margins than the LR) in comparison so they kept that on the market with the Panasonic US cells.

When they brought it back they used imported batteries in the LR AWD 3 (and still do)- those cells were still able to qualify for the tax credit in 2023, but- unlike the US made Panasonic ones- do not qualify for the tax credit in 2024.

Is it possible the EV tax credit qualification issues with Model 3 RWD and AWD will be resolved in sync with the Model 3 "Plaid" release?

How?

There are no spare US made batteries to put in those vehicles, and the loophole used previously (homogating sales with other cars from the factory) appears no longer possible (if it were they'd not have lost the credit Jan 1 2024)

 

[mpgxsvcd]

I doubt it, it's what accelerates a mass. Aren't you calculating the horsepower from the torque?

I am calculating power from AMPs and Volts. However, this discussion would have to be moved to the other Hp and Torque thread if we dive into the details. I don't really want to drag it off the topic of simply "what everyone's predictions are".

 

[ashegam]

This causes serious pricing problems for the LR and RWD models however- since they can not use the credit. They'd need to slash the prices of both by thousands if the new performance model was under 55k and qualified for the credit.

Not necessarily. If you think about it, it's a win win for both Tesla and the Consumer.

The RWD is $39k and both the LR and P will virtually be the same price at $48k after the tax credit. The customer demographic looking to buy a RWD is looking for value hence they won't jump to a LR/P because it's a hefty $9k more expensive. So there is no need for Tesla to drop the price here, the price deferential hasn't changed and still remains at $9k.

Now the LR consumer is gonna be excited because they can get the model P for the same price they were planning on spending on the LR. Tesla also doesn't care that they are cannibalizing their LR sales because they would still get $7500 for each P sale AND increase margins even further with every boost sale.

 

[Knightshade]

Not necessarily. If you think about it, it's a win win for both Tesla and the Consumer.

The RWD is $39k and both the LR and P will virtually be the same price at $48k after the tax credit. The customer demographic looking to buy a RWD is looking for value hence they won't jump to a LR/P because it's a hefty $9k more expensive. So there is no need for Tesla to drop the price here, the price deferential hasn't changed and still remains at $9k.

Now the LR consumer is gonna be excited because they can get the model P for the same price they were planning on spending on the LR. Tesla also doesn't care that they are cannibalizing their LR sales because they would still get $7500 for each P sale AND increase margins even further with every boost sale.

Why would Tesla keep offering a car nobody would buy? (a LR AWD at the same price as a P)?

Further- if all LR AWD sales are to be replaced with P sales-- where do they get enough US made 2170s to do that? The fact they don't have them is why they originally killed the LR AWD.... the Chinese cells they use now are not a valid substitute for the P since no IRA credit.

 

[cptnslo]

Not necessarily. If you think about it, it's a win win for both Tesla and the Consumer.

The RWD is $39k and both the LR and P will virtually be the same price at $48k after the tax credit. The customer demographic looking to buy a RWD is looking for value hence they won't jump to a LR/P because it's a hefty $9k more expensive. So there is no need for Tesla to drop the price here, the price deferential hasn't changed and still remains at $9k.

Now the LR consumer is gonna be excited because they can get the model P for the same price they were planning on spending on the LR. Tesla also doesn't care that they are cannibalizing their LR sales because they would still get $7500 for each P sale AND increase margins even further with every boost sale.

lol they’re not going to price the M3P at 55k before tax incentives. I’ll pretty much bet money on that. ESPECIALLY if it’s as big of an upgrade as projected not including the physical differences

 

[ashegam]

lol they’re not going to price the M3P at 55k before tax incentives. I’ll pretty much bet money on that. ESPECIALLY if it’s as big of an upgrade as projected not including the physical differences

Lets do it. give me the odds you're willing to take, since you're so sure we're not doing 1:1, so what's your over/under?

 

[12B4A]

lol they’re not going to price the M3P at 55k before tax incentives. I’ll pretty much bet money on that. ESPECIALLY if it’s as big of an upgrade as projected not including the physical differences

Starting price differential between LR and P has ranged from $4k to $8k since the middle of 2019 with the past couple years being in the lower end of that range. Hitting $54,990 would be a $7,250 differential. Totally plausible. Maybe they'll price it at $55,010

Edit: For those that guffaw at an M3P being less expensive than LR after tax credit, consider the credit could be $3750 as it was for about 5 minutes earlier this year.

 

[Knightshade]

Starting price differential between LR and P has ranged from $4k to $8k since the middle of 2019 with the past couple years being in the lower end of that range. Hitting $54,990 would be a $7,250 differential. Totally plausible. Maybe they'll price it at $55,010

At $54,990 with $7500 taken off at point of sale the P would be $47,490.... a differential of only $280. In favor of the P.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

1340A I beleive, but only on a colder pack with lower SOC when then BMS tries to compensate the lower voltage. If the pack was very hot and full the absolute max was around 1300A.

Close, but 840A is the official limit, according to the certification.

This is all ways too optimistic in my view. The Panasonic NCA naturally has more power than the LG NMC, because of it's low voltage drop. I don't think Tesla will increase anything on the Panasonic in order to not make this power gap any bigger than it already is. What they can do on both cars is remove the artificial torque limitation to gain 0-60/0-100 times. This, in combination with the better power at higher speeds due to the 4D2, will improve acceleration in pretty much all speed ranges. Acceleration will probably be just below 3.0s but nothing that even gets close to Plaid numbers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772926663518511274

In my graph I added 13% to current Model 3 Performance power at slower speeds for the Model 3 Ludicrous thinking 15% would be a little too aggressive. This is what an actual 30% would look like. This car would probably be in the 9s.

And this was the 13% prediction.

 

[Krobbler]

I predict this Model 3 Ludicrous will be significantly quicker at all speeds. My prediction is still 10.5 @ 128 mph and 0-60 mph in 2.5 seconds with rollout subtracted. 0-130 mph will be greatly improved but still limited by how much the front motor drops off in power at higher speeds. The Model S LR will still have a significantly quicker 60-130 mph.

I still predict sub $60K but sub $55K might be possible too.

My good friend is a battery engineer at a tesla competitor and I have had multiple conversations with him about the upcoming Ludicrous.

His calculations are nearly identical to yours. He thinks 2.6 0-60 and 10.6 @125 1/4 mile. He also believes they will limit power to around 600hp and msrp will be $57k.