Blog Model 3: Is The Long Range Battery Worth It?

At $9,000 US, one of the pricier options for Model 3 is range. The Standard Range (SR) vehicle comes with 220 miles of EPA-rated range and a Long Range (LR) car has 310 miles. Is the long-range upgrade worth $9,000 for 90 more miles? Today, we’ll explore this question.

You need to understand your personal driving needs. If you’ll never use the additional 90 miles, you might as well save the money. If, however, you’ll use it or it would give you peace of mind and you can afford it, you should get the LR.

Faster Charging

In addition to the extra range, the LR will also charge faster when connected to Tesla’s High Power Wall Connector. The SR charges at a rate of 7.6 kW (about 30 miles per hour), whereas the LR charges at 9.6 kW (about 37 miles per hour). The slightly faster home charging is a nice add-on, but far from justifies the cost. The point of the LR is the additional range, let’s move to that aspect.

Battery Cost

I thought you said we were going to talk about range next; this is cost. Yes, I did. But the question we are asking is about value for money. So, let’s look at the cost value of what you’re getting.

The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined from an average of around $400 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2012 (when the Model S was launched) to under $150 today. For comparison, GM says when buying batteries for the Chevy Bolt, they pay LG Chem about $145 per kWh. This is, of course, just for the battery cells, it does not include the packaging, cooling, installation… The final retail price for any finished goods would be far above the cost of the raw components, but this gives you a starting reference.

Although Tesla has not released specific pack sizes for the two vehicles, there have been leaks that have let us know the that the SR has about 50 kWh of capacity and the LR has 75 to 80 kWh. So let’s assume that the extra $9,000 buys you 30 kWh more capacity. That is a retail price of $300 per kWh. From this perspective, Tesla is not giving us a bargain, but there are other ways to look at this too.

It’s All About The Range

If you just look at the price of the car and the range, you can make a simple table of price per mile. Our table will have the Model 3 LR and SR as well as a few other EVs for comparison. Note, these are base prices (not including incentives). If you want to buy leather seats, or dual motors, that’s up to you, but including it here would complicate the table.

* The 2018 Leaf data is not final/official at the time of writing, this may need an update when final pricing and EPA results are published.

Looking at the range this way, the LR is the best per mile bargain in the bunch. Only the Model 3 SR and Chevy Bolt are even in the same category for dollars per mile category.

Summary

The car you’ll like best is the one that meets your needs and your budget. Make sure you understand your driving habits. Open Google Maps and plot out your regular drives. For your longer drives, open the Tesla Supercharger map and see if there are any Superchargers along the routes for your longer drives.

Sidebar: Margins & Upgrade Options

Tesla has to make money on each car they sell. These funds go towards building out the production capacity, charging infrastructure, and more. The no frills SR car should be as affordable as possible to allow as many customers into the 200-mile plus EV market as they can. One way to do this is to keep the profit margin on the base model of the car low and then offer compelling upgrades (with higher margins). This allows the company to have a blended margin that is above that of the base model while keeping the door open to more price-sensitive customers. Tesla is far from the only automaker to use this scheme and it is a win for both the company and customers.

TMC Member Patrick0101 is a solar and electric vehicle advocate who blogs at Cards With Cords. 

 

[FlyingKiwi]

Why ignore the weight difference? It's not huge, and rolling losses are only a fraction of total, but it's meaningful when you're dealing with such small differences in range, it matters.

There's a 7,5% difference in weight. So, say, 2,5% difference in total drag on the highway when moving at a good clip maybe? So 318 miles for LR, not 326. At lower speeds, it'd be a greater reduction.

I did some quick back of the envelope calcs and you're right. I was thinking it'd be in the ~1% range, but it looks like it might just break 2%. I guess mostly due to the better aero drag doesn't totally dominate.

 

[Sudre]

I am a Model S60 owner. I took delivery of my car in Feb of 2013. My wife and I kept a log on the garage door and neither of us ever drove over 140 mile a day. Model S60 it was.

I can tell you now get the largest battery before you start deciding on upgrades and options unless this is going to be your secondary car.... and even then seriously consider the largest battery. All these articles about why to choose which battery are always off on one major thing... 'That one time'. One time is all it takes. Then you are kicking yourself for not getting the larger battery for the rest of your ownership. And NO. You can't just go purchase a bigger battery. I bought my car is 2013 and there is still not enough battery saving for me to ever consider it. It'd be better to purchase a used Model S. Trading in my S is not an option until my wife gets her 3 so I am just stuck with the S60 until her car if paid for.

Here are some things to think about.

This past summer my wife and I drove from St. Louis, MO to Vail, CO for a vacation. We hiked and saw some beautiful waterfalls. My S did great and I had no charging issues...... until we drove home. The drive from Goodland, KS to Hays, KS.... We had a head crossing headwind of 20mph because a storm was blowing in from the NE. A really weird direction but that's what it was none the less. The supercharger at Colby did not exist at the time. We fully charged at Goodland and made are attempt. I am really good at gauging the range while driving. After we drove half way I knew we were not going to make it. The wind was too much. I dropped the speed from the typical highway speed down to 70. Things look to be improving. Another quarter of the way and I ran the number thru my head again. We weren't going to make it by like 4 miles. I dropped my speed down to 65 and stayed in the slow lane. It started raining. Rain take away range because the tires have to push the water out of the way. I knew then that it was going to be really close. We did make it but the battery reached 0 miles 2 miles before our exit. That is a very stressful 2 miles in the pouring rain with 20+mph winds in Kansas. This also meant the supercharger was not going to be a fast one. The supercharger will trickle charge the battery until the charge gets up above zero.

Get the long range battery.

I know. I know. Like me, you have NO intentions of ever taking a road trip. never never.

A few years ago after a day of driving around running errands my wife got a call and her father was in the hospital. Well we were still out driving and had around 25 miles of range left, plenty to go home. I had plenty to get to the hospital so off we went. Turns out this is the mid-west and most places do not have EV charging. When I shut the car of the message popped up. See it was 34 degrees that day. Tesla's lose range while sitting in cold weather unplugged. EVEN with the energy savings mode turned on. 2 miles is a lot when you only have 9 left. Luckily I was close to my parents house where I had installed a plug for emergencies. I left my wife on her own to go pick up a partial charge at my parents.
The cold weather driving and several stops throughout the day took my 200 miles and sucked them away fast. Every time you stop in cold weather you eat thru juice to warm the cabin and battery back up. Keep that in mind.

Get the long range battery.

I know... you live outside the Midwest. Lots of charging.....

A friend of mine has a cabin a little over 60 miles from St. Louis. This is an EASY round trip. Heck I even installed a 14-50 plug at my friends cabin so I can always charge (in an emergency). On the way back I was ahead of my friend. I didn't bother to charge while out there because I had plenty of range on a warm day. Sure enough about halfway home I got a call. My friends tire had blown out and she needed help. I exited turned around and went back. Well I had enough to get back to the cabin once to her car.... MAYBE enough to get home. Back to the cabin it was.

Get the long range battery.

I can go on and on. 230 miles is about right. Things happen. Weather changes. I didn't read all the posts here. Has anyone commented and said they really wished they got the short range battery and not the long on a Model S or X?

AP can be easily upgraded later along with self-driving. I highly doubt batteries will be easily upgrade for many years. Tesla needs a lot more battery factories just to make the lineup they have in mind.

 

[gregincal]

It depends on how early in the order queue you are. I'm April 1 and I have estimated delivery of SR of April-June which should qualify for full tax credit. Those who ordered even a month or two later than me and what SR stand a pretty good chance of not being able to claim full credit when their car is delivered later next year. For them it's true that if the federal rebate is cut 1/2 then the price difference for LR is not $9000 but about $5700.

Although I believe the further out you are, the less time difference between when you would receive long range versus short range (and I assume no difference between ordering LR with or without PUP).

 

[internalaudit]

The LR is probably the only thing that makes the Model 3 initially profitable.

GM says it costs them $140/kWh to source batteries. Tesla cost should be less. Let's say it's about $120.

The difference in the batteries in the two cars is, at most, 25 kWh. So it costs Tesla about $3,000 to provide a bigger battery that they are charging $9,000 for.

Definitely a huge cash cow for them. Similar to Apple charging $150 for 192Gb of flash storage that they pay $10-$20 for.

The closest parallel to the SR vs LR would be the displacement of the engine in ICEV.

No wonder Tesla advertised a 0.4 sec 0-60 advantage for the LR and a little bit more warranty coverage, knowing fully well that majority of people do not purchase extended warranties (I've been part of the minority because I tend to hold on to vehicles for as long as they do not turn into a money pit).

With bigger engine displacement comes faster acceleration, perhaps a few more bells and whistles but then there's the disadvantage of higher fuel expenditure. Of course the LR is heavier and will consumer more energy for the same distance covered but for most people considering BEVs, electricity cost recharging would easily be dwarfed by a few fold by the cost of refueling an ICEV. In my case, it's between 2-3x cheaper depending on the ICEV I'm driving. And I just read about the newer 10 speed auto transmissions today and some new engine technologies like Mazda's HCCI and turbos and all in the past few months and I'm thinking my next car should probably be a BEV for their drive train simplicity. With the newer ICEV technology, one major issue post-warranty could be a very expensive experience.

People who drive a long enough distance on a regular basis will probably be more sensitive to battery degradation (shorter winter distance) in a BEV than to fuel efficiency losses in an ICEV (because refueling stations are more ubiquitous and gasoline is energy already in storage form) and so Tesla knows more people are willing to pay an additional $9k to drive 40% more the SR distance. That's part of marketing and so far most competitors have only announced 200 mile BEVs that aren't coming to market until 2019.

I wonder how frequently Telsa makes changes to option pricing and whether this $9k premium will be reduced by early 2019? If rumors are true and the Leaf 60 kWh does have a 200+ mile range and a TMS for $36k with most if not all safety features thrown in, it might just pressure Tesla to lower the LR along with the EAP option pricing.

In any case, my late 2018 delivery estimate can quickly become early to mid 2019 and by then there will be a host of other BEVs available and I'm one who doesn't care too much about the SCN, which is why I am considering the LR and other BEVs. My sweet spot would probably be 250 miles with little degradation. Hopefully the Leaf 60 kWh will pull through with 250 miles and a TMS.

 

[dhrivnak]

As someone who crazily just dropped $29k on the Roadster 3.0 battery I too voted for longer range. That was $29k for an extra 130 miles of range. Time will tell if it was truly worth it but I have already done three trips that would have been impossible on the original battery.

 

[Derik]

For me the long range makes the most sense.

I drive around 90 miles round trip a day to get to work and back. So it seems like the 230 miles would be fine (Even at 80% battery). The problem I have is since this is my primary vehicle and I don't want to have to charge it every day if I can help it.

So I figured if I can cover at least 2 or 3 days of driving with an 80% charge I'd be good. So 310 miles at 80% is just shy of 250 miles. Which is not quite 3 days, but pretty close. So this will cover me when my electric company goes out for a day (which has happened from time to time) or I just forget to plug in.

If you can afford it, go for the long range. If you're weekly commute is small or this is a secondary vehicle you'd be OK with the standard.

 

[roblab]

I am a Model S60 owner. I took delivery of my car in Feb of 2013. My wife and I kept a log on the garage door and neither of us ever drove over 140 mile a day. Model S60 it was.

I can tell you now get the largest battery before you start deciding on upgrades and options unless this is going to be your secondary car.... and even then seriously consider the largest battery.

That's what I tell everyone. After you own one, you realize it. Quit listening to these pundits. Ask "Do you own one? How many miles have you driven?" I walked into the showroom in Phoenix, and there was a guy looking at the range numbers. I was talking to the Tesla person, telling I had just come 1000 miles, great car, 130,000 miles, etc. The "looker" turns and says, "I know all about electrics. I only travel local. I don't need range."

I'd like to see what he says a year after he buys his Leaf.

 

[KarenRei]

I appreciate your post, Sudre. But some notes.

You talk about a S 60. The range on the S 60 is shorter than even the Model 3 SR. And since your car is 2013, you probably have 6-7% degradation, based on the typical degradation curves. Probably an EPA range of 196mi, vs. 220 for the Model 3. So, for example, your "-2 miles remaining" becomes "22 miles remaining". Now, eventually the Model 3 will degrade, but your S 60 started with a 10 mile disadvantage to begin with.

Secondly, not everyone lives in places where you have to "drop down" from "typical highway speed" to 70mph. Where I am, the speed limit is 90kph (56 mph). I'm sure you know the difference in range 56mph makes versus whatever your "typical highway speeds" are. Everyone's situation is different. The LR would drive for something like 6 hours at our speed limit on a single charge. That would bore me to tears; I need to get out of the car a lot sooner than that.

Everyone's situation is different.

As for "Has anyone commented and said they really wished they got the short range battery and not the long on a Model S or X?" - people don't think that way. People see what their spending got them, but not what it could have gotten them instead. If someone spent $9k on a big vacation in a place they've already wanted to see instead, they'd leave that vacation thinking, "Oh, I'm so glad I went to that place I've always wanted to see instead of spending it on a more expensive car." When people decide to spend money, they justify their decision to themselves.

To put it another way: if I had spent an extra $9k on my last car, would I be able to afford a Model 3 today at all? I'm not so sure about that. Maybe to you, a larger battery is just disposable money. It's not to everyone, particularly when we're talking about the lower end market.

I also don't see why you made a lot of the decisions you did. E.g.:

Well we were still out driving and had around 25 miles of range left, plenty to go home. I had plenty to get to the hospital so off we went.

No you didn't. Why would you think that? That's like driving around with the gas light on in a gas car. Ignore that it's winter; why on earth were you at such a tiny buffer remaining and thinking "this is just fine"? Same with your cabin story. Didn't bother to charge? On a trip? .... Why? Wasn't worth the thirty seconds to plug in? Ignore the range issue, do you really want the parasitic draw coming from the pack rather than the wall?

It sounds like you have just one problem, and that's way too much tolerance for targeting low states of charge at arrival rather than taking the appropriate time to charge.

Lastly, I don't know how much you value your time. But how much time did you actually waste due to your range incidents? Let's say....5 hours? Let's be pessimistic and say 10. $9000, divided by ten hours... that's $900 an hour. Do you make $900 an hour? I sure as heck don't.

 

[SageBrush]

I did some quick back of the envelope calcs and you're right. I was thinking it'd be in the ~1% range, but it looks like it might just break 2%. I guess mostly due to the better aero drag doesn't totally dominate.

I came up with 4.5 Wh per mile. Sound right ?

 

[SageBrush]

I appreciate your post, Sudre. But some notes.

You talk about a S 60. The range on the S 60 is shorter than even the Model 3 SR. And since your car is 2013, you probably have 6-7% degradation, based on the typical degradation curves. Probably an EPA range of 196mi, vs. 220 for the Model 3. So, for example, your "-2 miles remaining" becomes "22 miles remaining". Now, eventually the Model 3 will degrade, but your S 60 started with a 10 mile disadvantage to begin with.

Secondly, not everyone lives in places where you have to "drop down" from "typical highway speed" to 70mph. Where I am, the speed limit is 90kph (56 mph). I'm sure you know the difference in range 56mph makes versus whatever your "typical highway speeds" are. Everyone's situation is different. The LR would drive for something like 6 hours at our speed limit on a single charge. That would bore me to tears; I need to get out of the car a lot sooner than that.

Everyone's situation is different.

As for "Has anyone commented and said they really wished they got the short range battery and not the long on a Model S or X?" - people don't think that way. People see what their spending got them, but not what it could have gotten them instead. If someone spent $9k on a big vacation in a place they've already wanted to see instead, they'd leave that vacation thinking, "Oh, I'm so glad I went to that place I've always wanted to see instead of spending it on a more expensive car." When people decide to spend money, they justify their decision to themselves.

To put it another way: if I had spent an extra $9k on my last car, would I be able to afford a Model 3 today at all? I'm not so sure about that. Maybe to you, a larger battery is just disposable money. It's not to everyone, particularly when we're talking about the lower end market.

I also don't see why you made a lot of the decisions you did. E.g.:



No you didn't. Why would you think that? That's like driving around with the gas light on in a gas car. Ignore that it's winter; why on earth were you at such a tiny buffer remaining and thinking "this is just fine"? Same with your cabin story. Didn't bother to charge? On a trip? .... Why? Wasn't worth the thirty seconds to plug in? Ignore the range issue, do you really want the parasitic draw coming from the pack rather than the wall?

It sounds like you have just one problem, and that's way too much tolerance for targeting low states of charge at arrival rather than taking the appropriate time to charge.

Lastly, I don't know how much you value your time. But how much time did you actually waste due to your range incidents? Let's say....5 hours? Let's be pessimistic and say 10. $9000, divided by ten hours... that's $900 an hour. Do you make $900 an hour? I sure as heck don't.

All very rational, and since I think this way too, I'm not going to spend the $9k.

However, I think Sudre makes an important point: we all make mistakes, have charging snafus, and encounter atypical situations. Extra range gives us leeway. So the question actually becomes whether we want a larger margin for error or are willing to deal with the rare range issue when it occurs. Because it will occur.

 

[FlyingKiwi]

I came up with 4.5 Wh per mile. Sound right ?

I got +12N rolling resistance due to weight increase, at 70mph thats ~ 375W, 375W.hr/70m.hr^-1 = 5.3Wh/mile, or +2.1% on a 250wh/mile base rate.

I should be working in metric units. arrrgh.

 

[SageBrush]

I got +12N rolling resistance due to weight increase, at 70mph thats ~ 375W, 375W.hr/70m.hr^-1 = 5.3Wh/mile, or +2.1% on a 250wh/mile base rate.

I should be working in metric units. arrrgh.

I would die if I had to calculate in imperial units.

Work = Force * distance (N * meter)
A mile is 1609 meters

Force ...
120 Kg
RR 9 kg/1000kg
G = 9.8
So 120*0.009*9.8 = 10.58 N

Then energy = 1609*10.58 Joules/mile = 4.73 Wh/mile

I figured closer to 300 Wh/mile at highway speeds, so a ~ 1.5% difference in range from the weight difference.

 

[Glamisduner]

For my it's $9000 more, but I will also have a much better chance of getting in on the full incentives and tax credits. Plus I do think the battery will age better since it will not need to be recharged as much or to as high of a level, I would imagine the individual battery cells would be charged at a lower current as well.

 

[voip-ninja]

The closest parallel to the SR vs LR would be the displacement of the engine in ICEV.

No wonder Tesla advertised a 0.4 sec 0-60 advantage for the LR and a little bit more warranty coverage, knowing fully well that majority of people do not purchase extended warranties (I've been part of the minority because I tend to hold on to vehicles for as long as they do not turn into a money pit).

With bigger engine displacement comes faster acceleration, perhaps a few more bells and whistles but then there's the disadvantage of higher fuel expenditure. Of course the LR is heavier and will consumer more energy for the same distance covered but for most people considering BEVs, electricity cost recharging would easily be dwarfed by a few fold by the cost of refueling an ICEV. In my case, it's between 2-3x cheaper depending on the ICEV I'm driving. And I just read about the newer 10 speed auto transmissions today and some new engine technologies like Mazda's HCCI and turbos and all in the past few months and I'm thinking my next car should probably be a BEV for their drive train simplicity. With the newer ICEV technology, one major issue post-warranty could be a very expensive experience.

People who drive a long enough distance on a regular basis will probably be more sensitive to battery degradation (shorter winter distance) in a BEV than to fuel efficiency losses in an ICEV (because refueling stations are more ubiquitous and gasoline is energy already in storage form) and so Tesla knows more people are willing to pay an additional $9k to drive 40% more the SR distance. That's part of marketing and so far most competitors have only announced 200 mile BEVs that aren't coming to market until 2019.

I wonder how frequently Telsa makes changes to option pricing and whether this $9k premium will be reduced by early 2019? If rumors are true and the Leaf 60 kWh does have a 200+ mile range and a TMS for $36k with most if not all safety features thrown in, it might just pressure Tesla to lower the LR along with the EAP option pricing.

In any case, my late 2018 delivery estimate can quickly become early to mid 2019 and by then there will be a host of other BEVs available and I'm one who doesn't care too much about the SCN, which is why I am considering the LR and other BEVs. My sweet spot would probably be 250 miles with little degradation. Hopefully the Leaf 60 kWh will pull through with 250 miles and a TMS.

I don't think that the Leaf at $35,000 compares to the Tesla at $35,000 even if the range is similar.... any more than a top of the line $35,000 Honda Accord with every option compares to a base model BMW 330i. They are just aimed at very different market segments.

One is a Tesla and one is a weird-mobile.

 

[Sudre]

I appreciate your post, Sudre. But some notes.

..... And since your car is 2013, you probably have 6-7% degradation.....

So you have not owned a BEV for any length of time?
Remember even the Model 3 will experience degradation. It is not immune.
Thank you for making my point even more clear.

Get the long range battery.

SageBrush gets it. I know people are going to get the short range Model 3. I just want them to think twice or even a third time.

 

[SmartElectric]

Everyone's situation is different.
Maybe to you, a larger battery is just disposable money. It's not to everyone, particularly when we're talking about the lower end market.

Now I understand why you are complaining so much about the lack of a supercharger network in your country. You intend to buy the smallest battery option.

I had the same choice here in Ontario when the supercharger network was a few locations, and spent the extra to get the 85 vs the 60. I would never get the smallest battery option given the experiences we've had with our 85, which match what other owners are saying here.

Buyers of the LR battery will make at least half the difference of getting the big battery when selling the car.

Then again, if I decide to keep the 85 and get the Model 3, I thought of getting the SR as I would only need it for my commute, my wife flatly said no way, we are only getting the LR, no matter the circumstance, to her, range matters, it may only be a few times, but you'll be kicking yourself for not upgrading. That's our view from experience.

 

[JS__]

Let me summarize the above:

------------
Someone has an income that allows a <crazy expensive> Model S and may or may not have blown another $1000-$2000 on "emergency backup" level 2 chargers at the homes of all of his friends and family, and he ALMOST needed to use a range longer than 200 miles like 3 times in the times he has owned his car. (Well, they now have installed more Superchargers so it wouldn't happen today, there will be many more in the future, and they all could have been avoided by going 60mph from the start if really in trouble, but you know...) For that reason, as well as saving about 9 minutes on average at any supercharger stops and a meaninglessly faster overnight charge, he feels that everyone should increase the price of their car (post-tax-credit) by 33%.
------------
A whole bunch of other people with absurdly high incomes such that they can afford $100,000+ cars chimes in and agrees.

I do realize that many people feel strongly that a larger battery is a "no brainer," and I can understand that if you're focused on the many real and significant benefits to a longer range. For everyone else, though, ie: all but those who constantly will be traveling very long distances (think a huge commute>75 miles, or frequent trips >400 miles), this benefit is wildly overblown. On long trips, until you get to 400-500 miles plus, the big battery is unlikely to save you any supercharger stops at all, just save you ~10 minutes per stop. If you talk to most electric car owners, they will tell you that range anxiety falls off quickly after the first year when you know your car and what it can do. With >200 miles of range, you are almost never going to experience range anxiety, and you are almost never going to use those last 85 miles.

Don't forget that those last 85 miles increase the base price (after tax credit) by 33%! That's crazy!

The right answer for MOST drivers is the short range battery, unless the money just doesn't hurt. Then by all means have a blast and get the sweet battery. It's a luxury, and that's great, but it's not actually worth it for most drivers. Don't be pressured into blowing 20% of an average American's salary for the few times a year it might slightly increase your convenience.

 

[xav-]

Assuming you get the full tax credit in the future first place, which is definitely not a guarantee if you don't get LR

But I get it it's a lot of money

 

[insaneoctane]

....earning 10% interest.... in the bank has earned....

Not questioning your logic, but "bank" and "earning 10% interest" shouldn't be used together in 2017.

 

[insaneoctane]

I copied this from a post that I made a few months ago, but it explains my attempts to justify the LR. It's half baked, but effective at trying to rationalize something you're just going to do...

• Faster car. By about 10% I like fast cars and will never be able to justify P version. 5.1 seconds is faster and definitely worth something to me. Hmm maybe I would pay $1,500 for the extra Hp.
• Faster SC rate sounds good on paper. Can't tell you how much I would really benefit, but it is worth something. Hmm maybe I would pay $500 for faster SC
• Faster home charging. Worth maybe $250 to me?
• Get my car sooner. I want the options on the current first batch. My estimator shows Nov-Jan. If I choose LR I might get my M3 this year. Gets me fed tax credit without concern about Trump's actions for 2018 tax changes. Gets in line sooner for CA rebate (currently out of money, so it could matter. Get in line for CA HOV sticker, never know when they might end that. Sooner is Worth $1,000.
• Range. I would like to break this up into 3 distinct benefits for me
  • Resale. Even though I will likely drive this car for 200k miles, I think this ups my ultimate resale by at least $2,000
  • Battery wear. I really do expect to put 200k miles on this car and want to minimize deep discharge and other battery effects for 10 years. I am concerned about degradation on base model. My round trip commute is well within base capability at 110 mi/day, but with weather and freeway and elevation changes, I don't know how the base battery will fair after say 7 years and 140,000 miles. Battery wear "insurance" is worth $1,500 easy.
  • Range anxiety / flexibility. I own a 80 mile range Fiat now. We don't take it many places. I'd like to get as far away from that feeling as possible. Like many previous comments, I suspect that we'd choose the model 3 more often than the minivan for many trips if it was simple. Ironically, we choose the Fiat anytime it will make it and hold the cargo for the trip because the EV experience is really that much better. And it's a Fiat! Range flexibility is worth $2,000.

Adding that up gets me to $8,750 today. Almost there. The other consideration is knowing that my threshold for an expenditure tends to change over time. Things that I could not justify at the time of purchase that later, if I could go back, I would have gone ahead and bought (like the faster CPU, or leather option, or whatever) . I really notice this when I accessorize my purchases even when I thought I would be done spending on a particular item. So, avoiding the regret of not choosing the LR is also worth something!