You might get a free octopus teddy
- I did see one person get one, by the looks of things the car is likely to be delivered in the school summer hols, so it would be something for my daughter at least who'll likely be with me
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- I did see one person get one, by the looks of things the car is likely to be delivered in the school summer hols, so it would be something for my daughter at least who'll likely be with meTBH I think you're missing the bigger picture. No, of course VW won't suddenly hit the market with loads of EV models, but they will increase the number of models rapidly year on year. They are investing $91 billion in R&D for EVs in the next few years. This is a massive amount by any standard, and makes the $5.4 billion that Tesla invested in R&D from 2010 - 2018 seem downright paltry. Do you seriously think that they are going to spend this vast amount of money just to produce a few concept cars that will never actually see a production line? The reality is that in a few years, sooner than I think most people imagination, they will not be reliant on their ICE sales. And in 20 years time, or more likely sooner, they will be selling NO Ice cars at all in Europe and other significant markets. Tesla does still have the edge at the moment, but I very much doubt it will in another five years.
I was referring to what is going to happen over the next 24 months re. short term leasing. Let's bookmark this thread and see how much things have changed in that timescale. I don't personally think the M3 will look old hat by then although it should finally be starting to see some real competition.
As for VW, this sudden "all or nothing" investment in EV tech off the back of dieselgate is pretty unconvincing and their board could easily make a u-turn on that investment if it doesn't look like working out for them or if they can convince legislators to back off a bit on ICE emissions. Other big ICE manufacturers are taking more of a conservative approach to EVs and some giants, like Toyota, are still totally in denial. They are slowly coming round to the idea of an EV future, but it has to be profitable for them too and that's been the sticking point for making serious progress.
MrBadger
Badger out
I would hardly call it sudden. VAG have been playing EV in various guises for some while. Current VW range (call it gen 1 or whatever) probably pushed out to test what I suspect they already knew. What I think has changed is their priority. I think dieselgate and Tesla forced them to evaluate their priorities. But I think they always knew what was coming, just not necessarily exactly how and when. Personally, I think VW ID 3 will do to the market, what Beetle and Golf did. I think that and Tesla Model Y will trigger the BEV tilt and VW will be right there to capitalise on that with far more other model options than Tesla could cope with in their current guise. People will no longer see BEV as a premium option, Tesla will have to stand on their products rather than brand image and there will be many in that arena starting to appear by time most peoples current finance options finish.
Interesting and hopefully healthier urban times ahead, the latter will take longer to filter down. Mobility wise, 2040 will be far more different to 2020 than 2020 is to 2000..
Interesting and hopefully healthier urban times ahead, the latter will take longer to filter down. Mobility wise, 2040 will be far more different to 2020 than 2020 is to 2000..
TLDR; VW are throwing lots of money at the "problem". But is that going to do much against the massive technological lead and vertical integration that Tesla has built up and will continue to build upon? No, it will not. Money is no substitute for time investment, expertise and patented technology. Having money doesn't make one agile nor able in areas one wasn't before. Plus, VW shareholders won't be happy with any dramatic pivoting either.
I think it's truly naive to think that a company can out-innovate Tesla simply by chucking money in. It takes a lot more than that. I think what's far more likely is that VW will improve their technology and the number of EV models available in the next several years. But I don't expect them to outdo Tesla in every respect, either. There will be plenty of buyers for Teslas and plenty of buyers for VW's offerings. The market displacement from VW's EVs is going to come from the shrinking ICE portion of the market, not from Tesla's vehicles.
MrBadger
Badger out
Why do you think that people want a car as innovative as Tesla makes? My guess is that, outside this forum, if you asked most people, the step to EV is a big enough step for most. For most, much of Tesla’s features are just to solve problems they do not think they have. No need or want all the bells and whistles that Tesla offer and by the time they become aware of them, other manufacturers alternatives will be much closer or better. For the majority, the extras that Tesla products offer over and above similar items from other manufacturers (of which it is clear that some manufacturers do a better job of), will be just lost on people. And I would expect that the differences will become closer and closer as time progresses so Tesla we’ll need to improve to stay ahead.
Tesla are not having any issues selling the Model 3. The product itself is excellent and unique in many ways, but it's not perfect and not for everyone. A lot of that is down to Tesla's innovation. There are people who would happily buy it over offerings from other manufacturers because of certain boxes it ticks. Some people would prefer something more traditional but electric, others prefer exactly what Tesla sells/will sell and what they stand for/will stand for. There's no reason to think that will be any different in several years time. There's an expanding market big enough for plenty of players, with different choices appealing to different people for different reasons.
I agree that Tesla can't just stand still, but I have no reason to think they will. They continually innovate, at a pace that other less agile players simply don't. As a TSLA shareholder, if you're an informed one closely following things, you should understand this quite well.
Last edited:
Well, the proposed specs of the upcoming VW EVs are simply not doing anything for me. They actually look pretty lame even compared to what Tesla are offering today. Same with the Audi E-tron. What an underwhelming vehicle that has turned out to be. They might be the masters of the consistent panel gap, but the rest is as dull as dishwater.
As EVMeister rightly points out, VW may have vast amounts of money to throw around, but so far they have been totally ineffective in competing in the EV market. The current e-Golf is a joke of a car that even their franchised dealerships are reluctant to support. I'm sure they can do better than that, but we're still very much waiting. Meanwhile the Tesla M3 is looking pretty good from my seat.
As EVMeister rightly points out, VW may have vast amounts of money to throw around, but so far they have been totally ineffective in competing in the EV market. The current e-Golf is a joke of a car that even their franchised dealerships are reluctant to support. I'm sure they can do better than that, but we're still very much waiting. Meanwhile the Tesla M3 is looking pretty good from my seat.
What on earth gives you the idea that the e-Golf and the Audi E-tron are dull or incapable? I have driven neither so cannot comment personally, but both get consistently good reviews. I still think build quality is important, and refinement and comfort certainly are - neither of which are M3 strong points. Tesla is also consistently near the bottom of the list for reliability, and if a car has a problem it can be off he road for literally weeks because Tesla do not have the servicing infrastructure in place and there is a huge lack of parts.
VW haven't yet made a serious attempt to penetrate the EV market - they haven't had to. But they will have to because in 20 years there will be no market at all for ICE cars. Any manufacturer that doesn't take EVs seriously in the next few years will be committing corporate suicide. The VW group make some truly superb ICE cars (I love my new generation A6) and there's absolutely no reason why they can't make truly superb EV's as well.
I think it's truly naive to think that a company can out-innovate Tesla simply by chucking money in. It takes a lot more than that. I think what's far more likely is that VW will improve their technology and the number of EV models available in the next several years. But I don't expect them to outdo Tesla in every respect, either. There will be plenty of buyers for Teslas and plenty of buyers for VW's offerings. The market displacement from VW's EVs is going to come from the shrinking ICE portion of the market, not from Tesla's vehicles.[/QUOTE]
VW and other manufacturers won't be "chucking money" at EV development just on a whim and a fancy, they'll be investing in R&D because their very existence depends on it. Yes, Tesla have led the way so far, and they have made impressive steps forward in terms of tech and innovation on what is actually a very modest R&D budget. But I think it's very naïve to think that Tesla have discovered some sort of Holy Grail of EV innovation that other manufacturers are incapable of emulating and surpassing. By and large they haven't even begun to try yet. Once their massive R&D budgets are seriously turned to developing EVs things will be very different. VW and others will not be aiming to produce mediocre EVs, they will be aiming to produce fantastic EVs in the same way that they provide fantastic ICE vehicles. Will Tesla still be the leader in innovation and tech in 2025? Almost certainly not.
VW and other manufacturers won't be "chucking money" at EV development just on a whim and a fancy, they'll be investing in R&D because their very existence depends on it. Yes, Tesla have led the way so far, and they have made impressive steps forward in terms of tech and innovation on what is actually a very modest R&D budget. But I think it's very naïve to think that Tesla have discovered some sort of Holy Grail of EV innovation that other manufacturers are incapable of emulating and surpassing. By and large they haven't even begun to try yet. Once their massive R&D budgets are seriously turned to developing EVs things will be very different. VW and others will not be aiming to produce mediocre EVs, they will be aiming to produce fantastic EVs in the same way that they provide fantastic ICE vehicles. Will Tesla still be the leader in innovation and tech in 2025? Almost certainly not.
The VAG group do make some nice cars, I've had a few over the years but I do feel like they have purposely made the range of the e-tron quite bad, a company like Audi should easily be get more out of it. I think the car looks nice and no doubt Audi does a nice interior and has some of the best tech of the major car brands but after even just sitting in a model 3 in the showroom everything else feels so out dated.
I have been waiting to get a new car since my last lease went back in December last year because we were waiting to buy a house, We finally bought a house in April and I was actually looking at getting an Audi S4 Avant but they still hadnt announced the 2019 model yet so I had a look around at other model's and really liked the look of the e-tron and was expecting good range when I read it had a 95kWh battery but 200 miles is pretty poor, especially for a car that starts at £71k, once you tick a couple of the options most people want you are up to £84k. You can get a long range model x for that sort of money.
I thought the biggest joke from Audi recently is that all their new S cars - S4, S6, S7 etc. are all Diesel with fake exhaust tips and fake exhaust sounds.
I have been waiting to get a new car since my last lease went back in December last year because we were waiting to buy a house, We finally bought a house in April and I was actually looking at getting an Audi S4 Avant but they still hadnt announced the 2019 model yet so I had a look around at other model's and really liked the look of the e-tron and was expecting good range when I read it had a 95kWh battery but 200 miles is pretty poor, especially for a car that starts at £71k, once you tick a couple of the options most people want you are up to £84k. You can get a long range model x for that sort of money.
I thought the biggest joke from Audi recently is that all their new S cars - S4, S6, S7 etc. are all Diesel with fake exhaust tips and fake exhaust sounds.
They've been saying the same thing since 2010. And now they're still struggling to improve upon a 2012 Tesla Model S in many respects with inefficient étron. But of course this time it will be different. /s...
Type2, I think you understand very little about how the automotive industry works. So you think that VW is somehow going to be able to pivot itself to become some amazing force that can outcompete Tesla by 2025? You act as if they can just flick a switch and start pumping out these amazing vehicles filled with wonderful batteries that they can manufacture at scale. Or that it will work that quickly, economically speaking, when they've got a huge legacy of ICE vehicles and dealerships. That won't just evoporate so that all is well. It just isn't viable on any level.
There are also industry experts who put Tesla's drivetrain and battery technology several years ahead of other manufacturers. And that is accounting for known products in the pipeline, including from VW's MEB platform. Their approach is different. Plus, Tesla have now acquired a certain company called Maxwell technology and their associated patents. This will cement their lead further and making it more difficult for others to catch up to Tesla's technology. And let's not get into Tesla's vertical integration and software advantage - ICE manufacturers have had many years to improve that sort of thing and they've failed repeatedly. So you can forget your "2025" as the year others will outcompete Tesla, even if Tesla stood still - which they won't be doing.
Say VW did somehow achieve this, do you not understand that it is ICE vehicles that they need to displace, not Teslas and other EVs? It's a market they're going to be growing with, not taking over. Do you have any idea of the scale of battery production required to fill this growing demand for EVs? I'll give you a clue - it's not a gap Tesla alone can come anywhere close to filling, nor VW. The demand will be there almost certainly - or it won't, which will be because of the failure of the slow-moving dinosaurs of the car industry.
Last edited:
It's easy to forget how easily even the market leaders and innovators can fall off the perch - look what happened to Nokia and Blackberry in the mobile phone world
Tesla is undoubtedly the current innovator, but there's no guarantee that they will even exist in a couple of years. They have had well documented cash flow problems, and they have a volatile CEO who is apt to say stupid things. This damages the share price and puts off potential investors. They also have a habit of losing senior staff - three Vice Presidents have left in the last ten days. Do I think they'll go belly up? Absolutely not, but no one can be certain either way.
Of course most new sales are going to come from replacing ICE vehicles. Tesla has not begun to compete in the sub £20k or even the sub £40k market where the vast majority of sales are made, and unless they do they will always remain a relatively niche producer. That may well be their business model.
We all, including me, like to look into the future and make wonderful predictions, but they are of course pure speculation. Absolutely no one knows what the EV landscape will look like in ten years time. And you don't need to be a motoring industry expert to recognise that.
I'm sorry but I can't get remotely excited by the e-Golf. It's slow and has poor range. Reviews I've read usually end by saying the hybrid version makes more sense unless you are absolutely set on an EV. That tells you everything you need to know. Also read plenty of horror stories about VW dealerships struggling to diagnose and fix faults.
I'm also not rushing out to trade my Model X for a slower and less efficient e-Tron. I'm sure it would have some plus points, but it's not exactly setting the EV world on fire.
Tesla reliability has not been an issue for me personally and service has been better than I previously experienced with Porsche. So I have no hesitation in ordering another Tesla while you presumably sit and wait for VW to get their act together.
Far from it - I’m looking forward to getting my M3 in August despite its shortcomings. I quite agree that VW won’t be able to compete with Tesla in the next couple of years. But I do disagree with the notion that no other car manufacturer will be able to compete with Tesla on innovation and tech just a few years down the road.
Last edited by a moderator:
Type2 and to a lesser extent Artiste... You seem to have an extremely naive/shallow understanding of what's involved with the transition to EVs for the mainstream manufacturers. And also a slim understanding of the extent of the technological lead Tesla already has and can build upon. If you look at my last post and actually read it properly, plus follow the links and learn a bit about what Tesla does, what Tesla can do (with Maxwell) and what VW will do with their MEB platform. It will all become quite clear why I'm saying what I'm saying.
VW has an electric vehicle program to deploy across (most of) their 12 brands with "70 new electric vehicle models" alongside this albatross around their neck called ICE vehicles. They aren't able to flick a switch to transition and are planning a relatively relaxed rollout (over a decade) using common platforms across many vehicles. Those platforms are easy to build and have commercially supplied parts (i.e. batteries) for using available technology. They are focussing (MEB platform, PPE platform delayed already due to Tesla's current technology) on inferior technology to what Tesla has today and have no answer at all to what Tesla will have tomorrow (Maxwell).
Tesla is far more streamlined in their approach and have a massive and soon to become greater advantage economically and in terms of efficiency (cost per kWh and energy density). It's a lot easier when you've just got a few models to focus on and no old legacy industry to wind down whilst keeping shareholders happy. But that won't matter for either company, they'll sell to people interested in both of their offerings. Ignorance is bliss I guess and I'm not going to waste any more of my time trying to educate you. You'll see for yourself what happens in the years to come. I'm confident Tesla will still be around and there will certainly be people interested in buying their cars.
VW has an electric vehicle program to deploy across (most of) their 12 brands with "70 new electric vehicle models" alongside this albatross around their neck called ICE vehicles. They aren't able to flick a switch to transition and are planning a relatively relaxed rollout (over a decade) using common platforms across many vehicles. Those platforms are easy to build and have commercially supplied parts (i.e. batteries) for using available technology. They are focussing (MEB platform, PPE platform delayed already due to Tesla's current technology) on inferior technology to what Tesla has today and have no answer at all to what Tesla will have tomorrow (Maxwell).
Tesla is far more streamlined in their approach and have a massive and soon to become greater advantage economically and in terms of efficiency (cost per kWh and energy density). It's a lot easier when you've just got a few models to focus on and no old legacy industry to wind down whilst keeping shareholders happy. But that won't matter for either company, they'll sell to people interested in both of their offerings. Ignorance is bliss I guess and I'm not going to waste any more of my time trying to educate you. You'll see for yourself what happens in the years to come. I'm confident Tesla will still be around and there will certainly be people interested in buying their cars.
Last edited:
VW isn't spending $91 billion on R&D. That number probably includes battery contracts and other costs. VW has promised that they will spend $50 billion on R&D to bring new electric and autonomous cars to market. But when VW disclosed this they also disclosed that in the same time frame they will spend 100 billion on R&D to bring new diesel and petrol cars to market.
VW's plan is being able to produce 1 million EVs by 2025. In that same year they also plan to produce 10 million ICE-vehicles. Tesla will be way beyond 1 million by 2025. This is VW giving their business away.
It's a pity you are using arguments that are either untrue or irrelevant to Tesla's technological lead:
- Tesla does not have cash flow problems. It has $5 billion in the bank and Q2 will likely have seen a positive cash flow of $1 billion.
- Tesla did not lose three VPs in het last ten days, it was only reported on in the last ten days. Two of them left at least half a year ago and have long been replaced by capable people. Tesla's has a lot of VPs and with VPs in this industry moving to another job on average after 4 years (I believe it is only slightly faster at Tesla with 3,5 years), there will be a VP leaving every few months. It happens to all companies, but only when it happens at Tesla does it make the headlines.
- The CEO sometimes says things he should not have said, but he compensates for this in countless other ways. Without him Tesla would no longer exist. And what he says on Twitter is liked and gives Tesla a powerfull marketing tool. In just 2 years' time his following on Twitter has tripled from 9 to 27 million.
But none of these things really matter anyway when it comes to Tesla's lead in battery density and price, drivetrain efficiency, software integration and real-world self driving capabilities.
I was referring to Type 2 actually - he/she doesn't talk like someone about to buy a Tesla. But anyway hope you enjoy your M3 with whatever shortcomings you perceive it may have? I've been extremely happy with my Model X over the last couple of years and am also looking forward to the M3 as a second car. No car is perfect, but Tesla are streets ahead of their ICE competition in several key areas as you will no doubt experience for yourself in August!
I would also expect other car manufacturers to compete with Tesla eventually, at least the ones that survive the transition to EV. I would also expect the future car industry to include new names we are not yet familiar with and I would not be at all surprised to see one or more of the legacy ICE manufacturers become extinct. Tesla now have the massive advantage of being on the right track from the very start without any ICE baggage to offload. It's going to be a very tough transition for the likes of VW.
You could turn that around and say that VW is the traditional Nokia and Tesla have just arrived on the scene with an iPhone.
Also look what happened to Kodak when cameras went digital. Kodak actually started developing their own digital cameras very early on, but they held back for years simply because of fear of damaging their legacy film business. It was a fatal mistake as they got left behind by new innovators. This is the very danger legacy ICE manufacturers face today. Tesla is still a relatively niche company today, surrounded by old giants, but then you could say that about the likes of Amazon 25 years ago.
Similar threads
