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Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

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So has anyone determined some sort of pattern? Based on order location, OD, Deposit type, etc. Or is it just a random draw it seems.
Location and config are primary it seems.
One week we may get a bunch of VINs for MSM, the next week it's all white. Seems Tesla makes colours in batches.
People not being told that selecting a payment option prioritizes them adds a big fudge factor.
 
Updated EDD!

OD 12/25
EDD1(12/28): 2/8-3/8
EDD2(1/18): 3/3-3/32
EDD3(2/14): 4/27-5/27
EDD4(2/25): 3/17-3/31

If you were following along with me in this thread before I reported that I spoke to Tesla once my EDD skyrocketed and 2 different advisors mentioned to me that they still saw my VIN as potentially being assigned March 3-15, so with the new EDD I have to assume what they told me was true.
 
VIN 196* assigned! :cool:
EDD: March 13-17

Timeline of someone who didn't complete Payment & trade-in section until 3 months after order

M3LR/MSM/White/18"/No FSD/Atlanta

OD: Nov 4, 2021
OD EDD: Dec 2021

Nov 5 EDD: Dec 10 - Dec 31
Nov 26 EDD: Jan 25 - Feb 22
Jan 6 EDD: Mar 8 - Mar 31
Jan 13 EDD: Mar 15 - Mar 31
Feb 9 EDD: Apr 26 - May 4
Feb 9: I asked SA about the push backs and was told my profile was incomplete
Feb 9: I completed the trade-in & Payment details
Feb 14 EDD: Mar 2 - Mar 29
Feb 21 EDD: Mar 9 - Mar 21
Feb 24: VIN 196* assigned
EDD: March 13-17
 
Still 2 weeks to go til delivery day but I am very intrigued by the fact that I still to this day have only received 1 communication which was the text to schedule my delivery (well 2 technically because email was also sent at the same time). Still don't have an official SA to my knowledge, never received a trade in text or have to sign the vision agreement. Very different experience from when I purchased my last 2 M3s but maybe I am just the odd man out?
 
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OD - November 14 (White/White/Aero 18"/No FDS)

EDD 1 - January 20 to February 20
EDD 2 - February 20 to March 20
EDD 3 - February 23 to March 4

VIN Received 2/16 at 1 PM - VIN later removed later that night around 10 PM (Called Tesla and was told production factory did not pass the car, put back in as "Priority".

EDD 4 - March 7 to March 18

VIN Received 2/23
EDD 5 - March 10-14

Location: Philadelphia
 
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Today is delivery day for me in PHX but currently on pins and needles because the check from my CU was delayed and they never bothered to send photos of front and back of check (when I asked them to). Check is currently in San Jose and I’m hoping it makes it to Fremont and cleared before my 4 pm delivery time. I feel like I should be excited but I’m not lol.

M3LR white int, black ext, 18” Aeros OD: 1/12
 
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Tomorrow (Saturday, Feb 26) is delivery day...

- Mud flaps in a box sitting in the garage waiting to be installed
- All-weather mats have finally shipped and will arrive within the next week

Here is my complete journey:

Original Configuration: M3LR White/Black 18" Aero
OD: Oct 23
EDD #1: Nov 21 - Dec 23
Held order until Jan 1
EDD #2: March 11 - March 31
EDD #3: Jan 21 - Feb 4
VIN 158xxx assigned on Jan 16
VIN 158xxx rejected on Jan 18
Changed Color to MSM/Black on Jan 18
EDD #4: Feb 1 - Feb 5
VIN 156xxx assigned on Jan 21
VIN 156xxx rejected on Jan 23
Held order until Feb 5
VIN 170xxx assigned on Feb 5
EDD #5: Feb 22 - Feb 26
Scheduled Delivery for Feb 26
 
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So has anyone determined some sort of pattern? Based on order location, OD, Deposit type, etc. Or is it just a random draw it seems.
There used to be sort of a pattern, that the further east in the US you are, the earlier in the fiscal quarter you'd get your VIN. That way, the longer delivery distances could be covered before the end of a fiscal quarter. The problem was that meant most of the cars were delivering in a giant clump towards the end of each quarter. _/|_/|_/| Elon said they are going to stop doing that to try and smooth out the deliveries, so it's more like ------

They were supposed to start it this quarter, but it seems like old habits die hard, because a lot more people in the East are still taking deliveries earlier in the quarter than out west.

But, yeah. It seems extremely random otherwise.
 
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