Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[dillon]

Got nothing in source code page. I even emailed the Costa Mesa delivery center asking if any other configuration is available & they said no. Expect 6-10 weeks from order date.

So of all the California folks on the spreadsheet that ordered the same thing you did this year (16 people)... you have now officially waited longer for a VIN than all of them. The most anyone has waited for a VIN for that config was 21 days. The longest any of them waited for delivery was 23 days.

Of all the model 3 configs ever ordered in California this year (274) you have now waited longer than 75% of them for a VIN.

Figured I'd share this so you can either throw your hands up and stop checking or print it out and angrily wave it at some poor Tesla employee

 

[puppers]

Do VIN assignments only happen during the week in the morning?

 

[jonquiljo]

So of all the California folks on the spreadsheet that ordered the same thing you did this year (16 people)... you have now officially waited longer for a VIN than all of them. The most anyone has waited for a VIN for that config was 21 days. The longest any of them waited for delivery was 23 days.

Yes, but what about the Q4 2018 people? That would be a better comparison. Wither way it makes no difference. This year, Tesla has clearly decided to put all overseas shipments way ahead of N. American ones and we will get shoved in at the end of the year.

Even 5-9 weeks from order date means nothing. It means that, at best, California cars will be 9 weeks and everyone else means 5-8 weeks.

The bottom line to all of this is that Fremont has not started producing N. American cars - and it is anyone's guess when they will be able to. Until the Fremont factory starts producing N. American cars - none of us will get anything.

 

[dillon]

Do VIN assignments only happen during the week in the morning?

Historically they happen every day (slightly lower percentage on Sunday). But it’s better to believe they only happen Wednesdays at 12pm or you will be refreshing a lot

 

[dillon]

Yes, but what about the Q4 2018 people? That would be a better comparison. Wither way it makes no difference. This year, Tesla has clearly decided to put all overseas shipments way ahead of N. American ones and we will get shoved in at the end of the year.

Even 5-9 weeks from order date means nothing. It means that, at best, California cars will be 9 weeks and everyone else means 5-8 weeks.

The bottom line to all of this is that Fremont has not started producing N. American cars - and it is anyone's guess when they will be able to. Until the Fremont factory starts producing N. American cars - none of us will get anything.

His particular model didn’t start production until this year and we’ve seen the production capability steadily increase, so I skipped 2018. But fair, there were some people waiting a long time (longer than a quarter). And even more fair that it probably doesn’t matter. History isn’t always a reliable predictor of the future. I’m just passing the time by playing with a decent sample size of data

The most official note I saw about Europe was they will “focus on European orders”. I hear mixed opinions on whether they’re done or not from both inside and outside Tesla so I’m not sure I have any reliable data there!

Safest thing is probably not to expect anything and not check. Just go on with life, be thankful a car is coming this year with high likelihood and let that text pop up as a nice surprise icing on the cake of life

 

[LOL@GAS]

So of all the California folks on the spreadsheet that ordered the same thing you did this year (16 people)... you have now officially waited longer for a VIN than all of them. The most anyone has waited for a VIN for that config was 21 days. The longest any of them waited for delivery was 23 days.

Of all the model 3 configs ever ordered in California this year (274) you have now waited longer than 75% of them for a VIN.

Figured I'd share this so you can either throw your hands up and stop checking or print it out and angrily wave it at some poor Tesla employee

I think the long wait is because I ordered on the first day of the 4th quarter. People are starting to realize that the tax credit ends in 3 months & a bunch of people rushed to ordered theirs. It's just bad timing. I was going to order towards the end of the 3rd quarter, but my VA benefit refund didn't get deposited until the 1st of October. When I test drove the model 3 at the Costa Mesa center, the sales rep asked if I wanted to move forward & that he could find me a car right away. Now its 6-10 weeks. I lost my chance, but at least I know for sure I should get my Model 3 before Christmas. It's all about timing.

 

[jonquiljo]

Well, we didn't know. I placed an order on Oct 1st and immediately got matched with an inventory vehicle and was told to take delivery Oct 9th. I couldn't take delivery for personal reasons, so I had to cancel and reorder on the 11th. I figured that it still said "2-3 weeks" on the website and the wait would not be much longer. Wrong! No one was talking much about delays in delivery on the 11th.

You're in SoCal, so you should expect the car maybe December 1 to mid December. You are, after all, in front of at least 25,000 US Model 3 orders. Sorry but your loan will have run out and you will have to run the numbers for another. I'm in NoCal - and they will apparently deliver to me last regardless of when I ordered - perhaps faster if I go pick it up at Fremont. I am hoping to get the car before Xmas. Unless Tesla pulls a rabbit out of a hat, there are no guarantees.

I roughly compute by order numbers that Tesla will have to switch to N. American production the end of next week to the end of the following week to deliver easily in N. America. It's still not clear. We just know what Tesla tells us - so it can be anytime and they will tell us at the last minute.

Waiting is terrible, especially if you never expected to wait. I figure the more eager we are, the worse it will be to wait. So lets all not expect anything and we will only be surprised - hopefully for the best.

 

[LOL@GAS]

Well, we didn't know. I placed an order on Oct 1st and immediately got matched with an inventory vehicle and was told to take delivery Oct 9th. I couldn't take delivery for personal reasons, so I had to cancel and reorder on the 11th. I figured that it still said "2-3 weeks" on the website and the wait would not be much longer. Wrong! No one was talking much about delays in delivery on the 11th.

You're in SoCal, so you should expect the car maybe December 1 to mid December. You are, after all, in front of at least 25,000 US Model 3 orders. Sorry but your loan will have run out and you will have to run the numbers for another. I'm in NoCal - and they will apparently deliver to me last regardless of when I ordered - perhaps faster if I go pick it up at Fremont. I am hoping to get the car before Xmas. Unless Tesla pulls a rabbit out of a hat, there are no guarantees.

I roughly compute by order numbers that Tesla will have to switch to N. American production the end of next week to the end of the following week to deliver easily in N. America. It's still not clear. We just know what Tesla tells us - so it can be anytime and they will tell us at the last minute.

Waiting is terrible, especially if you never expected to wait. I figure the more eager we are, the worse it will be to wait. So lets all not expect anything and we will only be surprised - hopefully for the best.

In my mind I'm thinking mid to end Nov. for my Model 3.

 

[jonquiljo]

Perhaps yes - especially in So Cal. It really depends when Tesla gets to making cars for the US again. Or if!

 

[dillon]

Well, we didn't know. I placed an order on Oct 1st and immediately got matched with an inventory vehicle and was told to take delivery Oct 9th. I couldn't take delivery for personal reasons, so I had to cancel and reorder on the 11th. I figured that it still said "2-3 weeks" on the website and the wait would not be much longer. Wrong! No one was talking much about delays in delivery on the 11th.

You're in SoCal, so you should expect the car maybe December 1 to mid December. You are, after all, in front of at least 25,000 US Model 3 orders. Sorry but your loan will have run out and you will have to run the numbers for another. I'm in NoCal - and they will apparently deliver to me last regardless of when I ordered - perhaps faster if I go pick it up at Fremont. I am hoping to get the car before Xmas. Unless Tesla pulls a rabbit out of a hat, there are no guarantees.

I roughly compute by order numbers that Tesla will have to switch to N. American production the end of next week to the end of the following week to deliver easily in N. America. It's still not clear. We just know what Tesla tells us - so it can be anytime and they will tell us at the last minute.

Waiting is terrible, especially if you never expected to wait. I figure the more eager we are, the worse it will be to wait. So lets all not expect anything and we will only be surprised - hopefully for the best.

Agree. It was weird my SA said the “European focus” orders were finished production on 10/18 which got my hopes up again. He was very confident my order on the 8th was placed just before the mad rush. When I saw Netherlands getting their VINs and then immediately after, US orders for LR getting Oct VINs I thought it was confirmation. Great if that’s the case, but I’ll try not to think too much about it.

 

[dillon]

I also thought it was interesting that the Bloomberg VIN tracking showed US VINs and international VINs delivering simultaneously for long durations, seeming to debunk the idea that the factory had to completely shut down and undergo significant retooling to switch between US and European orders.

 

[PowerBankT]

I also thought it was interesting that the Bloomberg VIN tracking showed US VINs and international VINs delivering simultaneously for long durations, seeming to debunk the idea that the factory had to completely shut down and undergo significant retooling to switch between US and European orders.

This would only happen for certain European countries. The majority of Europe drives cars similar to ours. They focus production on Europe, for certain, during the beginning of the quarter, but it hardly has to do with re-tooling.

 

[rtshefe]

european cars have different charging and ports, as well as different lighting regulations and other stuff that may also differentiate them from US cars

 

[Luso7]

just to reiterate to those who keep thinking manufacturing hasn’t started yet - I have a source code vin (that started as a vin on my main page and then went to the background) that tracked by the service center as awaiting rail transport. It has a “born on” date of 6 days ago at the factory in the internal Tesla system. So they definitely started producing American-destines cars

 

[dillon]

just to reiterate to those who keep thinking manufacturing hasn’t started yet - I have a source code vin (that started as a vin on my main page and then went to the background) that tracked by the service center as awaiting rail transport. It has a “born on” date of 6 days ago at the factory in the internal Tesla system. So they definitely started producing American-destines cars

Nice. This lines up precisely with what my SA said.

 

[PowerBankT]

I’m

just to reiterate to those who keep thinking manufacturing hasn’t started yet - I have a source code vin (that started as a vin on my main page and then went to the background) that tracked by the service center as awaiting rail transport. It has a “born on” date of 6 days ago at the factory in the internal Tesla system. So they definitely started producing American-destines cars

I’m assuming this is also a LR AWD?

 

[rtshefe]

just to reiterate to those who keep thinking manufacturing hasn’t started yet - I have a source code vin (that started as a vin on my main page and then went to the background) that tracked by the service center as awaiting rail transport. It has a “born on” date of 6 days ago at the factory in the internal Tesla system. So they definitely started producing American-destines cars

hopefully they start on the performance cars soon and get old orders from september under way...although from what the estimates are saying it looks like we wont see any new performance builds until late november..still holding out hope

 

[OverEZPZ]

Is there a way to create two entries on the tracking spreadsheet under the same username?

 

[Alimoeswi3]

just to reiterate to those who keep thinking manufacturing hasn’t started yet - I have a source code vin (that started as a vin on my main page and then went to the background) that tracked by the service center as awaiting rail transport. It has a “born on” date of 6 days ago at the factory in the internal Tesla system. So they definitely started producing American-destines cars

Congratulations! What was your build? When did you order?

 

[Luso7]

Correct - it is a LR AWD, MSM, FSD 18” Aeros

ordered 10/13