Model 3 page on Tesla site

[balzary]

I just noticed this on the page on the Tesla site. I'm in Canada and it lists that local pricing will be announced in 2017 and US deliveries will begin late 2017, hoping that Canada isn't too far behind the roll out.



I don't remember seeing this before, don't know when it got updated.

 

[EaglesPDX]

I just noticed this on the page on the Tesla site. I'm in Canada and it lists that local pricing will be announced in 2017 and US deliveries will begin late 2017, hoping that Canada isn't too far behind the roll out. I don't remember seeing this before, don't know when it got updated.

Interesting that US deliveries will not start until 2017 where previously Tesla had projected first sales, about 10,000 T3's sold in 2016.

With price a factor in the T3's sales and with Tesla's $7.500 due to expire with the 200,000 car produced, there was talk that Tesla would build cars and delay shipments, building up a backlog of cars so it could deliver a buch of cars, hit the 200,000 leve but still have 6 months of grace period for the $7,500 tax credit before it started to go down.

That would mean that the first 75,000 T3's delivered in first half of 2017 would get the $7,500, the next 37,500 would get $5,000 and the last 7,500 would get $2,500 tax credits. The first 150,000 T3's (double Tesla's original production plan) delivered in 2017 would all get signifcant tax credits.

 

[sunilsf]

At the model 3 unveil, they mentioned second half of 2017 for first deliveries.

 

[JeffK]

Interesting that US deliveries will not start until 2017 where previously Tesla had projected first sales, about 10,000 T3's sold in 2016.

I think you're a year off here. No one has ever said there would be a single model 3 delivered in 2016. Manufacturing and deliveries will start late 2017 and that's how it's always been.

 

[S'toon]

Interesting that US deliveries will not start until 2017 where previously Tesla had projected first sales, about 10,000 T3's sold in 2016.

With price a factor in the T3's sales and with Tesla's $7.500 due to expire with the 200,000 car produced, there was talk that Tesla would build cars and delay shipments, building up a backlog of cars so it could deliver a buch of cars, hit the 200,000 leve but still have 6 months of grace period for the $7,500 tax credit before it started to go down.

That would mean that the first 75,000 T3's delivered in first half of 2017 would get the $7,500, the next 37,500 would get $5,000 and the last 7,500 would get $2,500 tax credits. The first 150,000 T3's (double Tesla's original production plan) delivered in 2017 would all get signifcant tax credits.

Take a look again at the reveal video, at about 16:58 minutes in:

Deliveries begin at the end of next year, not this year.

The Bolt's deliveries begin at the end of this year.

 

[EaglesPDX]

I think you're a year off here. No one has ever said there would be a single model 3 delivered in 2016. Manufacturing and deliveries will start late 2017 and that's how it's always been.

You're right it was 10,000 in 2017 original projection.

 

[wman]

This is incorrect

Interesting that US deliveries will not start until 2017 where previously Tesla had projected first sales, about 10,000 T3's sold in 2016.

With price a factor in the T3's sales and with Tesla's $7.500 due to expire with the 200,000 car produced, there was talk that Tesla would build cars and delay shipments, building up a backlog of cars so it could deliver a buch of cars, hit the 200,000 leve but still have 6 months of grace period for the $7,500 tax credit before it started to go down.

That would mean that the first 75,000 T3's delivered in first half of 2017 would get the $7,500, the next 37,500 would get $5,000 and the last 7,500 would get $2,500 tax credits. The first 150,000 T3's (double Tesla's original production plan) delivered in 2017 would all get signifcant tax credits.

 

[JeffK]

You're right it was 10,000 in 2017 original projection.

Since the target for mass production was moved up Elon says he thinks if there aren't major unforeseen delays, there's a possibility they might be able to get 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3 cars out the door in late 2017.

and yeah your math is a little funny, in that 3-6 month period after the 200,000th Tesla BEV is delivered in the US, there's an unlimited number of cars that could get the full credit ($7500). An unlimited number that can get 50% ($3500) in the 6 months that follow that, and an unlimited who can get the 25% ($1750) in the 6 months after that. The numbers are only limited by manufacturing output.

 

[3s-a-charm]

Being in "Western Canada" I wonder if the west-to-east roll out of deliveries will include Canada or if they will fulfill eastern US orders before western Canadian orders? Traditionally Transport Canada makes early deliveries of new models delayed.

 

[alseTrick]

If Tesla delivers western Canadia before eastern US, I'm going to be upset. That's not what they've said and that's not what they've done with previous models. To my knowledge.

 

[vigge50]

Interesting that US deliveries will not start until 2017 where previously Tesla had projected first sales, about 10,000 T3's sold in 2016.

With price a factor in the T3's sales and with Tesla's $7.500 due to expire with the 200,000 car produced, there was talk that Tesla would build cars and delay shipments, building up a backlog of cars so it could deliver a buch of cars, hit the 200,000 leve but still have 6 months of grace period for the $7,500 tax credit before it started to go down.

That would mean that the first 75,000 T3's delivered in first half of 2017 would get the $7,500, the next 37,500 would get $5,000 and the last 7,500 would get $2,500 tax credits. The first 150,000 T3's (double Tesla's original production plan) delivered in 2017 would all get signifcant tax credits.

The number 200 000 is not produce cars but sold cars in USA. This means that even if tesla will produce 90 000 cars this year and then come up in total 200 000 cars produce they won't hit the 200 000 sales because Tesla sales to other countries in the world. Tesla have always said that they will start production in late 2017 and I don't belive that tesla will be able to deliver 200 000 cars in USA alone before that, it will take some time.

 

[JeffK]

If Tesla delivers western Canadia before eastern US, I'm going to be upset. That's not what they've said and that's not what they've done with previous models. To my knowledge.

If that were to happen then it would go against Elon's quote that they'd try to maximize the tax credit.

However, let's say there was a situation where they've delivered a few models on the west coast and the deliveries of all us Tesla's combined equaled 199,999 on December 1st. It's not in anyone's best interest if Tesla delivers another car in the US for the rest of that month due to how the tax credits work. They'd have two choices, stockpile the cars until January 1st, or start making deliveries outside the US. One option causes the financials to suck for one quarter and the other still limits you by production speed instead of being one month ahead.

 

[alseTrick]

In that instance they should stockpile the cars. So what if one quarter is off when the subsequent quarter is up by roughly the same margin. I'm not confident Tesla will choose the stockpile option, though.

 

[JeffK]

In that instance they should stockpile the cars. So what if one quarter is off when the subsequent quarter is up by roughly the same margin. I'm not confident Tesla will choose the stockpile option, though.

They did just purchase a large amount of warehouse space to use for something...

 

[yaric]

They did just purchase a large amount of warehouse space to use for something...

I dont think so. To store 10000 cars you dont need warehouse but small airfield.
Besides tesla owners know their car was build immediately it leaves factory. How will you explain to them they must wait knowing car just stays in california desert?

 

[JeffK]

I dont think so. To store 10000 cars you dont need warehouse but small airfield.
Besides tesla owners know their car was build immediately it leaves factory. How will you explain to them they must wait knowing car just stays in california desert?

A Model S is about 105 sq ft the Model 3 is smaller... Tesla bought 1 million sq ft in warehouse space in Livermore possible another 300k ft built as well totally 1.3 million sq ft.

If you had to in a pinch, how many Model 3s do you think you could fit in there?

 

[S'toon]

Being in "Western Canada" I wonder if the west-to-east roll out of deliveries will include Canada or if they will fulfill eastern US orders before western Canadian orders? Traditionally Transport Canada makes early deliveries of new models delayed.

Well, if present trends and attitudes at Tesla continue, SK, MB, and Ontario west of Toronto will be the last places in the world to get the 3. Us and wide swaths of Australia.

 

[shrspeedblade]

It's going to be nuts if they warehouse a bunch of cars and then unleash 20k of them on the Bay Area all at the same time!

I think just about all of us will have something to be upset over (I live only 75 miles from the factory and will have to watch all the highly optioned cars delivered first!) but will get over it when our Model 3 finally arrives.

 

[EaglesPDX]

I dont think so. To store 10000 cars you dont need warehouse but small airfield.
Besides tesla owners know their car was build immediately it leaves factory. How will you explain to them they must wait knowing car just stays in california desert?

$7,500 explains a LOT. For that matter $2,500 for the people at the end of 2018 explains a LOT. It would be totally great of Tesla to game the tax credits to help buyers out.

Even better if we elect some folks who are science based and extend the EV credit. Apply it to all EV's no matter production until we've replaced all fossil fuel cars and trucks with EV's.

 

[jlund]

If Tesla delivers western Canadia before eastern US, I'm going to be upset. That's not what they've said and that's not what they've done with previous models. To my knowledge.

Their FAQ page could be interpreted as they would deliver in western Canada before US east: Model 3 Reservations FAQ

So being western Canadian and reading that on reveal day, I'd be upset if they went east first

However the new landing page for model 3 makes it sound like they are going to focus on all of US first.