Model 3 page on Tesla site

[balzary]

That is true, reading the FAQ does read as North America. But the latest update to the page is really making me think we are all going to be waiting for the US cars before they move to us. Although you would hope that preorders before the reveal might get some slight bump up the queue.

It's wait and see, but I'm hoping we might see it at the tail end of 2017 or start of 2018. It would be interesting to see where Canada fits in to the reservations count.

 

[timk225]

If the 200,000 cars SOLD IN THE USA is the key factor for the tax credits, maybe Tesla should send all the first quarters' production overseas and to Canada. Let them be the guinea pigs for any early production problems, so the USA cars are as good as they can be, 3 months later!

 

[3s-a-charm]

Well, if present trends and attitudes at Tesla continue, SK, MB, and Ontario west of Toronto will be the last places in the world to get the 3. Us and wide swaths of Australia.

Time to borrow an address from someone in Toronto/Vancouver!

 

[3s-a-charm]

So do you think that a Vancouver Model S owner who waited in line will get their Model 3 after all US pre-orders are filled or will Tesla start deliveries to Canada ASAP on a west-to-east basis after California pre-orders? In other words... Vancouver owner waits in line and somebody in NY who reserved his first Tesla online a few days after the event gets his/her Model 3 first? It will be interesting (and likely very dramatic) to see how this one unfolds...

 

[vigge50]

In that instance they should stockpile the cars. So what if one quarter is off when the subsequent quarter is up by roughly the same margin. I'm not confident Tesla will choose the stockpile option, though.

The question then is, how many cars is tesla able to deliver at there service center. There have already been a lot of reports about how delivery specialist work over time and really stress in the end of the quater only to deliver as many cars as they possible can. If they start to stock car like you describe, schould they work 20 hours a day, 7 days a week only to make sure as many get there cars in that quater? Or schould we accept that they schould be able to work under normal circumstances and it's then better to ship cars out of USA even if it means some less get there tax credit?

 

[cronosx]

if the delivery specialist already work over time, then, probably tesla need more delivery specialist.
You are making it too big a problem.
Since they want to ramp up production,it's probably necessary to hire

 

[evp]

if the delivery specialist already work over time, then, probably tesla need more delivery specialist.
You are making it too big a problem.
Since they want to ramp up production,it's probably necessary to hire

^^^ This, and soon. They need to be opening a new service center every few days for the next two years to be in a position to support 500,000 cars in 2018. And train all the new service people.

 

[Pieter Knispel]

I am in Oakville in the GTA, and I estimate being approximately 105,000th in line. I have this estimated as I booked my preorder online about 1 hour before the reveal, and then of course at the end of the reveal Musk revealed (haha!) that there had already been 115,000 preorders. So approximately 105,000th in line, give or take a few thousand.

I intend on getting a decently optioned car, no performance package but the bigger battery and AWD, next gen seats, the winter package and a few more things, and so I am really hoping to actually take possession at the end of 2017, early 2018. What are the odds of this, do you guys think?

 

[arjay]

and so I am really hoping to actually take possession at the end of 2017, early 2018. What are the odds of this, do you guys think?

I reserved approximately 5 hours before you, with about the same options, and I am still enthusiastically hopefully planning for a 2017 delivery.

 

[sitter_k]

I don't think our chances are good for 2017. You should probably factor in delays, they might meet their deadline by rolling a handful off the line like the MX. Then there is the employees, then current owners, then US west coast. After that it's all up in the air, will it be Canada west coast and move eat across North America? Or rest of the USA first then Canada?

i waited at Lawrence in Toronto, joined the line right before reservations opened, completed my order about 1.5hrs after they opened so I'll guess I'm 50k-75k at worst. I'll option out my car Maybe performance too, depending on price and how much it moves me up and how bad I want/need it... I'm a bear for 2017 I'm guessing mid 2018 for us in the greater Toronto area.

 

[alseTrick]

The question then is, how many cars is tesla able to deliver at there service center. There have already been a lot of reports about how delivery specialist work over time and really stress in the end of the quater only to deliver as many cars as they possible can. If they start to stock car like you describe, schould they work 20 hours a day, 7 days a week only to make sure as many get there cars in that quater? Or schould we accept that they schould be able to work under normal circumstances and it's then better to ship cars out of USA even if it means some less get there tax credit?

Novel ideas:

1. Hire more employees

2. Build more service centers

NEXT!

 

[alseTrick]

Most US deliveries won't occur in 2017, so any Canadia deliveries are likely out of the question. Jmo.

 

[telero]

That would mean that the first 75,000 T3's delivered in first half of 2017 would get the $7,500, the next 37,500 would get $5,000 and the last 7,500 would get $2,500 tax credits.

You're tiered tax credit numbers are off. So are the person's that tried to correct you.

and yeah your math is a little funny, in that 3-6 month period after the 200,000th Tesla BEV is delivered in the US, there's an unlimited number of cars that could get the full credit ($7500). An unlimited number that can get 50% ($3500) in the 6 months that follow that, and an unlimited who can get the 25% ($1750) in the 6 months after that. The numbers are only limited by manufacturing output.

Your math is a little funny too. Half of $7500 is $3750, not $3500. And half of $3750 is $1875.

$7,500 explains a LOT. For that matter $2,500 for the people at the end of 2018 explains a LOT. It would be totally great of Tesla to game the tax credits to help buyers out.

No one will be able to get $2500 in the final phaseout period, it will be limited to $1875.

 

[vigge50]

Novel ideas:

1. Hire more employees

2. Build more service centers

NEXT!

And how much does it cost to built more service center and higher new employees? Should they pay millions only to be able to deliver some hundreds more within the period there the customer $7500?

 

[JeffK]

Your math is a little funny too. Half of $7500 is $3750, not $3500. And half of $3750 is $1875.

Haha nice catch. I was probably trying to hurry. The girlfriend likes to get pissed off when I spend too much time on the Tesla Motor Club forums

 

[alseTrick]

And how much does it cost to built more service center and higher new employees? Should they pay millions only to be able to deliver some hundreds more within the period there the customer $7500?

They need to build more and hire more regardless. So yes, they should do it because they're going to do it anyways.

While they're building out the new stores, the new employees can train at the current ones and be there to help during the mass delivery season.

It's not as if Tesla has reached their ideal saturation of stores and service centers. So until they do, your side of the argument "is not material" to the discussion, as Elon would say.

 

[EaglesPDX]

You're tiered tax credit numbers are off. So are the person's that tried to correct you.
No one will be able to get $2500 in the final phaseout period, it will be limited to $1875.

Actually $1,875.012011020101.

But Richard Pryor stole the $0.00011020101.

Superman (and you) are on the case.

 

[cheekedave]

I don't think our chances are good for 2017. You should probably factor in delays, they might meet their deadline by rolling a handful off the line like the MX. Then there is the employees, then current owners, then US west coast. After that it's all up in the air, will it be Canada west coast and move eat across North America? Or rest of the USA first then Canada?

i waited at Lawrence in Toronto, joined the line right before reservations opened, completed my order about 1.5hrs after they opened so I'll guess I'm 50k-75k at worst. I'll option out my car Maybe performance too, depending on price and how much it moves me up and how bad I want/need it... I'm a bear for 2017 I'm guessing mid 2018 for us in the greater Toronto area.

I was #40 in line @ the same location! I think I am about 500th in line worldwide. I hope we get ours 2017!!!

 

[EaglesPDX]

I was #40 in line @ the same location! I think I am about 500th in line worldwide. I hope we get ours 2017!!!

Wouldn't Tesla and SpaceX employees come first (20,000) and then Tesla S/X owners (100,000). And it's not clear that there even is a line as what happens if some of the 20,000 new Tesla employees put in an order, it would seem they jump the line, same with existing S/X owner.

And then there's the issue of the 200,000th car sold and making sure that doesn't happen until 2018 to maximize the Federal Tax credit.

 

[JeffK]

Wouldn't Tesla and SpaceX employees come first (20,000) and then Tesla S/X owners (100,000). And it's not clear that there even is a line as what happens if some of the 20,000 new Tesla employees put in an order, it would seem they jump the line, same with existing S/X owner.

And then there's the issue of the 200,000th car sold and making sure that doesn't happen until 2018 to maximize the Federal Tax credit.

Yes, you've confirmed why the global order number is not important and not necessarily relevant to delivery order. (This is why people shouldn't know their exact order numbers.)

That said, employees actually had a chance to register for a preorder much earlier in March (after the 18th). I believe if an employee were to put in a pre-order at this point it's not clear that they'd jump the line. They've already had nearly 2 weeks on the rest of us.

Your comment on the 200,000th car doesn't make any sense. To maximize the tax credit they simply need to deliver the 200,000th car at the beginning of a quarter. It doesn't matter which quarter.

Yet, cheekedave is in Canada so although Elon mentioned that they will try to maximize the US Tax credit, we don't actually know how they are going to handle orders from outside the US. I think it'd be safer to bet early to middle 2018