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Model 3 Performance Waiting Room

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Also just received a 2-week window this morning (M3P/MSM/Black). For those keeping score:

OD: 07/01/22
1st EDD: 9/3 - 10/15
2nd EDD: 8/22 - 9/26
3rd EDD: 8/24 - 9/21
2-week: 8/28 - 9/11 (2-week window assigned 49 days after ordering)


To those who have recently ordered a M3P and want to get a sense of what current timelines are looking like, I’ve been keeping track and these are the current GENERAL averages as of August 2022 for Model 3 Performance trims (of course there are exceptions to the timelines below, but this is what you could reasonably expect):
  • The delivery estimate on the general order page is typically about a month optimistic
  • When you actually place an order your immediate assigned date range will be 2-3 months out
  • Once you finish your tasks in the app (do them right away), within a few days you’ll be moved up to a slightly sooner date with a date range that spans more than 30 days
  • A lot more variability on this one, but roughly a month after your OD you will receive a new time window that’s often pushed up to be a tiny bit sooner, but this new date range spans just under 30 days
  • Roughly 15 days after that most recent date range update you’ll be assigned a new 2-week window. We’re not 100% sure what triggers the golden 2-week window, but current thinking is this means your car is about to be built on the assembly line. At this point you've typically placed your order 1.5 months ago.
  • On average you’ll receive a VIN roughly 5-7 days after you receive your 2-week window, but again there’s a lot of variability on this one.
  • People have officially been taking delivery about 2 weeks after they receive their VIN. On average people are taking delivery 8 or 9 days into their 2-week window.
  • All in, you’re taking delivery roughly 2 months after your OD.
Again, there are definitely exceptions to the above going both ways (shorter and longer timelines), but 7 or 8 out of every 10 of you can expect that your timeline will roughly follow the outline above.
Exact same care (M3P/MSM/Black), I ordered on 7/2 (as my previous M3 was totaled on 7/1 {{and saved my life!}} — and I got my two week window this morning as well. I’ve also gathered that you are in UT (or close by). I am in Salt Lake City, UT. Have followed all your posts to follow along with your timelines as they’ve always matched 1:1 with mine.

Excited to see some movement. My last 2 M3 orders were delivered in less than 6 days…so this has been painful.
 
Dang not even 800 miles. Thankfully i had a plug kit in my office I keep for my Harley. Tesla SA said they can’t work on it because their tire machine is broken. They sprayed soapy water and said keep driving it. View attachment 842807 new tire was 470? Complete wheel 1100 Ish I need to look into aftermarket. Local tire shop would touch the Teslas. Be prepared friends.
Well, that doesn't surprise me since we are in California and the bay area haha. I am going to get the warranty on the tires from America's tire because if this happens, then they would replace the tire for free if they can't fix it. I think it is about $230ish for the 4 tires. It is worth it because the tires can be expensive.
 
Well, that doesn't surprise me since we are in California and the bay area haha. I am going to get the warranty on the tires from America's tire because if this happens, then they would replace the tire for free if they can't fix it. I think it is about $230ish for the 4 tires. It is worth it because the tires can be expensive.
yeah I called them today. They didn’t have a tire in stock. But they are on my to do list.
 
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Yeah I think most people do that. My financing is currently on Cash and I’ll change it once I get a VIN. Already got a 90 day approved loan from my credit union.
Yesterday I changed it from financing to cash and this morning I saw my dates have changed. Wish I had done this right after putting in the order.

OD: 08/08
Color: White/White
Region: Washington, DC
EDD: Oct 18 - Nov 29
EDD: Oct 10 - Nov 14
 
M3P White/White No FSD
7/5 Ordered M3P Aug-Oct 2022
7/6 Est. Delivery: November 18 -January 13
7/12 Est. Delivery: September 7 -October 12
8/4 Est. Delivery: September 3 -October 1
8/15: Vin Assigned
Looks like got an older vin though... 326xxx 😬
Also on 8/15 the car was ready at the dealer and just picked it up today 8/20! Looked over everything and could not find anything wrong... Car had only 3 miles on it and charged to 97% Bonus the mobile charger was in the trunk too! Extremely impressed with ease of pickup and the overall buying process. I'm waiting anxiously waiting my on FastEV 18s to show up as the 20s are not going to survive the city 😬
 
Today is 8/20/22 my order date was 7/1. As of last night I was in a 13 day window for 8/22-9/3. This morning I checked and it’s 9/6-10/3?? Has anyone ever had their 13 day window pushed back a full month literally 2 days before the first day of the 13 day window? This is ridiculous!
A somewhat similar window push-out for me.

2022 M3P Red/White on order. Denver, Colorado area.
OD 6/24.
6/25 EDD: 8/08 - 9/13.
7/19 EDD: 8/08 - 9/12.
7/27 EDD: 8/26 - 9/23.
8/08 EDD: 8/23 - 9/03.
8/20 EDD: 9/02 - 9/13.

I wonder if it relates to our location, or color combo, or both.

2022 M3P Red/White on order. Denver, Colorado area.
OD 6/24. 6/25 ED: 8/08 - 9/13. 7/19 ED: 8/08 - 9/12. 7/27 ED: 8/26 - 9/23. 8/08 ED: 8/23 - 9/03. 8/20 ED: 9/02 - 9/13.
 
Today is 8/20/22 my order date was 7/1. As of last night I was in a 13 day window for 8/22-9/3. This morning I checked and it’s 9/6-10/3?? Has anyone ever had their 13 day window pushed back a full month literally 2 days before the first day of the 13 day window? This is ridiculous!

You are not alone!

Was two days into a 10-day window only to see it pushed out to a month (see timeline in my signature). There's another user ( @unlock ) on the forum with the same build (White/White), in the same relative geographic region, who received the exact same window. I don't have any insight as to how cars are allocated, but the color combination and location relative to Fremont seem to be significant factors.
 
Today is 8/20/22 my order date was 7/1. As of last night I was in a 13 day window for 8/22-9/3. This morning I checked and it’s 9/6-10/3?? Has anyone ever had their 13 day window pushed back a full month literally 2 days before the first day of the 13 day window? This is ridiculous!
On 8/6, the day after my second 2-week window started, it got pushed back to 8/22 - 9/19. It bounces back for some people, but it hasn't for me. What part of CA are you in? I'm in the bay area. And if you look at my sig, you can see how ridiculously optimistic their initial estimate was. I'm glad I didn't take them seriously, or else I'd probably end up with extra hard inquiries for the loan.
 
A somewhat similar window push-out for me.

2022 M3P Red/White on order. Denver, Colorado area.
OD 6/24.
6/25 EDD: 8/08 - 9/13.
7/19 EDD: 8/08 - 9/12.
7/27 EDD: 8/26 - 9/23.
8/08 EDD: 8/23 - 9/03.
8/20 EDD: 9/02 - 9/13.

I wonder if it relates to our location, or color combo, or both.

2022 M3P Red/White on order. Denver, Colorado area.
OD 6/24. 6/25 ED: 8/08 - 9/13. 7/19 ED: 8/08 - 9/12. 7/27 ED: 8/26 - 9/23. 8/08 ED: 8/23 - 9/03. 8/20 ED: 9/02 - 9/13.
Hell yeah. I hope u get the Aurora SC. So much nicer there than Littleton.
HMU when u get it. I’m in Thornton.
 
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Today is 8/20/22 my order date was 7/1. As of last night I was in a 13 day window for 8/22-9/3. This morning I checked and it’s 9/6-10/3?? Has anyone ever had their 13 day window pushed back a full month literally 2 days before the first day of the 13 day window? This is ridiculous!
It's frustrating I know, but mysteriously it's somewhat normal for this strange Rubber Band Effect to occur. Most often times than not, to bounces back and in some cases may tighten even more. There are unique scenarios where it gets hung up in the EOQ time frame as well, which sucks big time...
A somewhat similar window push-out for me.

2022 M3P Red/White on order. Denver, Colorado area.
OD 6/24.
6/25 EDD: 8/08 - 9/13.
7/19 EDD: 8/08 - 9/12.
7/27 EDD: 8/26 - 9/23.
8/08 EDD: 8/23 - 9/03.
8/20 EDD: 9/02 - 9/13.

I wonder if it relates to our location, or color combo, or both.

2022 M3P Red/White on order. Denver, Colorado area.
OD 6/24. 6/25 ED: 8/08 - 9/13. 7/19 ED: 8/08 - 9/12. 7/27 ED: 8/26 - 9/23. 8/08 ED: 8/23 - 9/03. 8/20 ED: 9/02 - 9/13.

You are not alone!

Was two days into a 10-day window only to see it pushed out to a month (see timeline in my signature). There's another user ( @unlock ) on the forum with the same build (White/White), in the same relative geographic region, who received the exact same window. I don't have any insight as to how cars are allocated, but the color combination and location relative to Fremont seem to be significant factors.
@normcaldwell That's the big mystery. I think color combo definitely has something to do with it as well. Orders with upgraded paint or interior options (white) should ideally get some priority from the very loose data; however, that doesn't seem to be much of the case right now.

The trend seems to favor more toward whatever batch of cars are being pumped out at Fremont and it getting allocated accordingly. I'm almost convinced that if there wasn't an order on the east coast with a white/white combo like mine, one of those cars could have very well been mine. The west coast clearly gets the short end of the stick with the allocation and I think we all know that as to be a fact by now. Really sucks...

ie... Let's say a west coast rsvp white/white was in a batch of cars in a particular run. If there's an order within a time frame that comes through from the east coast, I'm pretty much convinced that the car that was set for potentially the west coast rsvp to be allocated to the east coast white/white rsvp. That's at least my opinion so whether it's true or not who knows? - So if that makes any sense to anyone then also factor in these 4 week and 2 week windows that keep dancing around, which allows a lot of wiggle room in the allocation to prioritize an east coast rsvp for the first 2 months in a quarter.

@Blue Slug I'm hopeful that our EDDs will bounce back! Fingers crossed...
On 8/6, the day after my second 2-week window started, it got pushed back to 8/22 - 9/19. It bounces back for some people, but it hasn't for me. What part of CA are you in? I'm in the bay area. And if you look at my sig, you can see how ridiculously optimistic their initial estimate was. I'm glad I didn't take them seriously, or else I'd probably end up with extra hard inquiries for the loan.
That's absolutely the best thing to do @LorentzTorque to not take any of these EDDs seriously. It's crazy... I really think it'll bounce back for us and funny enough the moment we stop caring so much we'll likely get our 2 week and/or VIN. 😆

As for the hard inquires I hear ya. What sucks is that a lot of people chanced it before the rates started to go up and got left in a situation where their 30 days expired. I think most banked on taking that chance of securing the lower rate. The good news is that there are still a lot of CUs offering really great rates.

My current EDD is still sitting at end of Aug - end of Sept. I really hope that I can get the car by end of Aug and for the white interior upgrade to be worth something in this equation of any priority that may exist lol. There are some folks in this neck of the woods that had early and mid June ODs, where one already got his car and the other is picking up this Monday. That leaves me to be next, in theory... the Monday pick up guy's OD and my OD is exactly 2 weeks apart, which would put me at the very tail end of Aug for DD if the winds are blowing just right that day. However, if the upgraded white interior has any merit then I'm hoping that it shaves off a week, which would put me with a potential DD of this coming week! Let's hope....

I'm rooting for you all as well.
 
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As for the hard inquires I hear ya. What sucks is that a lot of people chanced it before the rates started to go up and got left in a situation where their 30 days expired. I think most banked on taking that chance of securing the lower rate. The good news is that there are still a lot of CUs offering really great rates.
I've been wondering if it would be a good idea to lock in the rate soon, even without the VIN, considering I've already waited a month. I was told that I could almost certainly get a 30-day extension if the initial 30-day period runs out, and the chance that I'd end up taking delivery next quarter seems fairly slim (though not impossible, considering Flatbroke's case). As far as I can tell, the worst-case scenario with a reasonable likelihood is that I'd get my car in the EOQ rush. But of course waiting until I have the VIN would be the safest bet if I'm less concerned about the interest rate....
 
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