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Model 3 Production Line Paused for Improvements

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Tesla’s Model 3 production line has shut down for four to five days, according to a report from Buzzfeed.

A Tesla spokesperson said the assembly line is stopped to “improve automation.” According to Buzzfeed:

The announcement of the four- to five-day production pause for Model 3 came without warning, according to Tesla employees who spoke with BuzzFeed News. During the pause, workers are expected to use vacation days or stay home without pay; a small number of workers may be offered paid work elsewhere in the factory.

Tesla had a similar pause of production in February. At the time, the company said the Model 3 production plan includes periods of planned downtime in both the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1 to improve automation and systematically address bottlenecks in order to increase production rates. “This is not unusual and is in fact common in production ramps like this,” the company told Bloomberg.

The latest pause comes just days after CEO Elon Musk told CBS that he has a “clear understanding of the path out of [production] hell.”

Tesla’s current goal is to manufacture 5,000 cars per week by the end of the second quarter, which was originally the year-end goal for 2017. The company said two weeks ago that it had achieved a production level of 2,000 Model 3s per week.

 
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My take is that the timing of the update is very good. That will allow announcing the new throughput when they report financials in May. Loss in Q1, but good ramp-up = still on track for profitability. I am not selling....
 
We all know the Fremont Tesla factory shut down to reconfigure, or adjust, or reorganize, or whatever carmakers do every few months.
So what is it that they did?
Any one know?
Did they wheel out excess robots and dump them? Did they dump more conveyer belts?
What was it that they did in the last 5 days?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Snerruc
Pure speculation here:
1. Earnings call is Wednesday after market close. I would think Elon will want to turn production on “24/7” and be able to state average velocity of 400-500 cars per day. That’s just 16-20 per hour. That equals 3000 vehicles per week.
2. Then we get Another production shutdown/upgrade in May gets to 30 cars per hour (which is avg 5000 per week, if 30/hour is sustainable). With actual sustained production of 3-4K the last week of June.
3. Then Tesla has another 30 days until Q2 earnings call to complete 5000 Model 3s in 1 week.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Blu Angel
Pure speculation here:
1. Earnings call is Wednesday after market close. I would think Elon will want to turn production on “24/7” and be able to state average velocity of 400-500 cars per day. That’s just 16-20 per hour. That equals 3000 vehicles per week.
2. Then we get Another production shutdown/upgrade in May gets to 30 cars per hour (which is avg 5000 per week, if 30/hour is sustainable). With actual sustained production of 3-4K the last week of June.
3. Then Tesla has another 30 days until Q2 earnings call to complete 5000 Model 3s in 1 week.
I'm confused- the earnings call is in May? Isn't the end of Q2 June? Is there a mid-quarter earnings call?
 
Then we get Another production shutdown/upgrade in May gets to 30 cars per hour (which is avg 5000 per week, if 30/hour is sustainable). With actual sustained production of 3-4K the last week of June.
Production target for last week of June is 5-6K per Elon. That is with 3rd shift added (24/7).
The target for May is 3-4K. Likely, the 2nd shutdown in May will just help to get closer to 4K and before that it will be closer to 3K.