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Model 3 Projected 0-60 Times

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Oloron, May 23, 2017.

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  1. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    I was struck by how very close the base Model 3 0-60 time is to the base Model S. With that apparent disclosure of the base Model 3 0-60 time we can then estimate the 0-60 times of the likely upgraded models. Assumptions:
    • The base Model 3 will have a 0-60 time of 5.6s
    • The most likely battery sizes for the Model 3 are 55kWh and 75kWh.
    • The Model 3 will not exceed a comparable tier Model S for performance to maintain a key point of differentiation between the Model 3 and the Model S. (i.e. a base Model S will be faster then a base Model 3, though a Performance Model 3 will exceed a base Model S.)
    • Given that a base Model 3 0-60 time is very close to a base Model S, it is very likely that the upgraded versions of the Model 3 could be close to the comparable versions of the Model S. (For example, going from a likely 55kWh battery to a 75kWh battery in the Model 3 is a 36% increase. Going from a 75kWh battery to a 90kWh battery is a 20% increase (or 33% increase from 75kWh to 100kWh) for the Model S.) This means the Model 3 0-60 times are as likely to dictated by software limiting decisions as by technological restrictions.
    Assuming they maintain a 0.1s gap between each tier:

    0-60 Times Model S Model 3 (projected, optimistic)
    Base Model 5.5s5.6s
    Base + D 5.2s 5.3s
    Upgraded Battery + D 4.2s 4.3s
    Upgraded Battery + PDL 2.5s 2.6s
    That is likely what is technically possible. However, to maintain reasonable differentiation between the Model 3 and Model S, they are likely to software limit (or use lower HP motors). This would probably imply something like:

    0-60 Times Model S Model 3 (more likely)
    Base Model 5.5s 5.6s
    Base + D 5.2s 5.3s
    Upgraded Battery + D 4.2s 4.3s - 4.7s
    Upgraded Battery + PDL 2.5s 2.6s - 3.5s
    Obviously this is speculation, but this does put a few interesting bounds on likely performance from both a technical and marketing perspective:

    • The base battery AWD Model 3 0-60 time is pretty tightly bound around 5.3s-5.4s, assuming the base AWD Model 3 needs to beat the base Model 3 time, but should not exceed the base AWD Model S.
    • The upgraded battery AWD Model 3 will probably be around a 4.5s 0-60 time, with a time in the 4's being very likely. This is as likely to be software limited as technology limited.
    • The greatest uncertainty is in the PDL Model 3 0-60 time. Something in the high 2's is probably technically possible, at least on the battery side. Something in the 3's is probably most likely in order to maintain separation with the Model S PDL while exceeding the Upgraded AWD Model 3.
     
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  2. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to see the D beat the BMW 340i at 4.8 seconds even better if the bigger battery version D can beat the BMW M3 at 4.1 seconds.

    For the P, I'm hoping they don't hold back.
     
  3. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    Yeah - if I had to make a solid guess, I suspect a Model 3 75D would have a 4.4s time. This would match an Audi S4 and would be in keeping with Tesla's benchmarking of the Model 3 to the Audi A4 line. That would also leave a lot of room for the Model 3 PDL version to be well in excess of anything in the BMW 3 series or Audi 4 series without exceeding any of the comparable Model S times.
     
  4. pkalhan

    pkalhan Member

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    I would be pumped if the 75D were to get close 5.0s...4.4s would be amazing!
     
  5. Trips

    Trips Member

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    I expect the Model 3 to be software limited and NEVER reach the max that it could. This might only be 10% but it will be limited.

    With the S and X they were limiting the number of times you could launch at full power. When everyone found out about this they threatened lawsuits even with it being something other companies do. This was done to protect the cars from excessive wear. If it was never available on the Model 3 they would not technically be limiting it.
     
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  6. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    AFAIK this was never done for the P100D which has the newer cooling mechanism...
     
  7. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

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    In the guide Tesla released, it said "as quick as 2.3" for MS and "5.6" for M3.

    Why would they bring out a car that is close to the P100D in performance (and likely better handling due to lower weight) at half the price? Who would buy the MS?
     
  8. rckybbby

    rckybbby Member

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    Good point, you want your flagship to be your flagship! But maybe they'll just price it to get the same margin as the S P100DL

    Off topic, but I believe on the Model S RWD the cars with upgraded batteries were faster 0-60. Do you think a RWD Model 3 with a 70/75kwh battery will be faster than a 50/55kwh?

    I suppose it has to do with the underlying cause/engineering. If anyone could shed some light on why it was the case with the S I'd be much obliged!
     
  9. juanmedina

    juanmedina Member

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    I don't think people buy cars just for 0-60 times. The model S is top of the line luxurious while being fast.
     
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  10. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

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    Is that really worth double the price of a fully loaded M3?
     
  11. Buddy

    Buddy Member

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    Despite how many times Elon Musk clearly states what the 3 will be, people still keep making claims that the fully loaded version will be a super car rival.

    2.6 seconds on a car built for the masses? Here is my prediction: the top of the line 3 wont be able to tango with a porsche 911.
     
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  12. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    To me? Definitely not.

    That said, a fully loaded BMW 7-series is much more than double the price of a fully loaded 3-series (and a loaded 5-series is about 50% more). At the high end of premium consumer products, there is usually a segment of people willing to pay large percentage increases in price for changes corresponding to small changes in cost.
     
  13. gowthamn

    gowthamn Science

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    #13 gowthamn, May 23, 2017
    Last edited: May 23, 2017
    Edit: -----
     
  14. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    I suspect 2.6s is more a bound on what they could do vs. what they will do. I suspect a time in the 3-3.5s range is more likely for a P75DL.
     
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  15. Oloron

    Oloron Member

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    Audi and BMW quote 7.1s for their competing base models 0-60 times (A4 and 320i). 5.6s is fast compared to that.

    You'd need to get up to models in the $50k-ish range to get sedans with a 5s-5.2s 0-60 time. A Model 3 75D would need to beat 5 seconds to be ahead of the competition at that price point.
     
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  16. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    US base 3-series sedan (320i) is 0 to 60 in 7.1 seconds. MSRP starts at $33,450.
    (328d is 0 to 60 in 7.8 seconds.)
     
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  17. R.S

    R.S Member

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    I think if they can beat BMW, just slightly, with each comparably priced car, everything will be fine.

    So let's take a look what BMW offers:
    320i: $33,450 7.1s
    320ix: $35,450 7.1s
    330i: $38,750 5.5s
    330ix: $40750 5.5s
    340i: $47,900 4.8s
    340ix: $49900 4.6s
    M3: $64000 3.9s

    So with the base Model 3 having a 0-60 of 5.6s, they would be really close to the 330i, which will be $3,750 more expensive. I don't know how the rest of the lineup will compete and how expensive it will be, but it isn't too hard to beat. We would need no sub 3 second P75D, or a sub 4 second 75D. Both would be nice, but nothing I expect from Tesla.
     
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  18. juanmedina

    juanmedina Member

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    IIRC the model 3 is supposed to have a 25% margin and the model S a 28%. Why not make the model 3 the best car you can knowing that you will sell thousands or millions of cars more at a lower price.

    I thought the missing of Tesla was to make the world a better place.
     
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  19. Big-T

    Big-T Member

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    Wait, what about a larger battery RWD time? We know that AWD won't be available for a few months/a year but I guess I assumed we'd have a larger battery pack option RWD first - no?
     
  20. rckybbby

    rckybbby Member

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    According to this chart, some of the RWD Model S's with bigger batteries that existed at the same time had faster 0-60 times than the smaller battery variants, but some did not.

    A bigger battery would mean more "juice" to send to the motor, right? Would it just be dependent on if the motor spec can handle it?
     
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