I was struck by how very close the base Model 3 0-60 time is to the base Model S. With that apparent disclosure of the base Model 3 0-60 time we can then estimate the 0-60 times of the likely upgraded models. Assumptions:
- The base Model 3 will have a 0-60 time of 5.6s
- The most likely battery sizes for the Model 3 are 55kWh and 75kWh.
- The Model 3 will not exceed a comparable tier Model S for performance to maintain a key point of differentiation between the Model 3 and the Model S. (i.e. a base Model S will be faster then a base Model 3, though a Performance Model 3 will exceed a base Model S.)
- Given that a base Model 3 0-60 time is very close to a base Model S, it is very likely that the upgraded versions of the Model 3 could be close to the comparable versions of the Model S. (For example, going from a likely 55kWh battery to a 75kWh battery in the Model 3 is a 36% increase. Going from a 75kWh battery to a 90kWh battery is a 20% increase (or 33% increase from 75kWh to 100kWh) for the Model S.) This means the Model 3 0-60 times are as likely to dictated by software limiting decisions as by technological restrictions.
Assuming they maintain a 0.1s gap between each tier:
| 0-60 Times | Model S | Model 3 (projected, optimistic) |
|---|
| Base Model | 5.5s | 5.6s |
| Base + D | 5.2s | 5.3s |
| Upgraded Battery + D | 4.2s | 4.3s |
| Upgraded Battery + PDL | 2.5s | 2.6s |
That is likely what is technically possible. However, to maintain reasonable differentiation between the Model 3 and Model S, they are likely to software limit (or use lower HP motors). This would probably imply something like:
| 0-60 Times | Model S | Model 3 (more likely) |
|---|
| Base Model | 5.5s | 5.6s |
| Base + D | 5.2s | 5.3s |
| Upgraded Battery + D | 4.2s | 4.3s - 4.7s |
| Upgraded Battery + PDL | 2.5s | 2.6s - 3.5s |
Obviously this is speculation, but this does put a few interesting bounds on likely performance from both a technical and marketing perspective:
- The base battery AWD Model 3 0-60 time is pretty tightly bound around 5.3s-5.4s, assuming the base AWD Model 3 needs to beat the base Model 3 time, but should not exceed the base AWD Model S.
- The upgraded battery AWD Model 3 will probably be around a 4.5s 0-60 time, with a time in the 4's being very likely. This is as likely to be software limited as technology limited.
- The greatest uncertainty is in the PDL Model 3 0-60 time. Something in the high 2's is probably technically possible, at least on the battery side. Something in the 3's is probably most likely in order to maintain separation with the Model S PDL while exceeding the Upgraded AWD Model 3.
