My spouse and I got our Model S in December 2015. His commute is about 65 miles round trip, and we've taken it on some road trips. We're putting about 2500 miles a month on the car, and saving over $100/month in combined gas/electricity costs over last year (our other car is an ICE car, but it only gets driven if we both need to drive on the same day).
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3s-a-charm
Active Member
I am probably somewhere around 250k on the list. I have solar panels and the prospect of actually $0 to charge and drive is amazing. BUT, I need to test drive before making a final decision. I am in a Yukon XL now and planned on buying smaller car, maybe a BMW 535i in a year or so anyway (kids are older) . The Model S is too rich for my blood but what a beautiful car it is! I am also interested in that Powerwall Tesla now has but I will look into it after production. (no reservation) Getting completely off the grid has been a goal but it is just too expensive right now. I care about the environment just like anyone else but my main reason for the 3 is it's a cool car.
What about a used Model S while you wait for the 3? I've owned a 535 (and many other BMWs - once you drive a Tesla it's almost impossible to go back (as I'm sure you have heard!).
Hi! I'm a long time lurker, and been a Tesla fan for a while. Some friends and I wanted to try and estimate where we are in line so we built an algorithm and have turned it into a website. Any feed back would be appreciated! Its got a long way to come but we'll be updating it regularly.
Check it out: Tesla Model 3 Counter
Paul: I'm a huge fan of the work you've done on your website. If you're ever down to grab a beer it would be cool to chat - I'm in Vancouver occasionally for work.
Check it out: Tesla Model 3 Counter
Paul: I'm a huge fan of the work you've done on your website. If you're ever down to grab a beer it would be cool to chat - I'm in Vancouver occasionally for work.
Fred Thompson
Member
Your site ask for the date and time of your e-mail notification for my reservation, shouldn't it be the date you made the reservation according to the e-mail you received from Tesla. My e-mail notification was April 7th but the date of my reservation logged according to Tesla's is April 1st.
If I entered the wrong date, is there a way to correct what I entered. Your estimated delivery for my reservation seems way off and I am guessing you did not want the date of the e-mail but instead the date of the reservation according to the Tesla's email. You also wanted the time of reservation email from Tesla. Since Tesla does not give a time with your reservation date, shouldn't the time of your email notification be removed as a factor in determining estimated delivery?
Fred Thompson
Member
I actually did receive my first e-mail on April 1st. Therefore, I need a way to update the information I entered into your site?
Asking for the RN# might turn people away. I won't be providing it. You might want to relabel that field. Its useless to you, but someone could misuse it and if you want to gain trust I would publish some data, methodologies. And I don't understand why you ask for the email confirmation as the timestamp. The actual reservation date/time is more important IMHO.
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Something not quite right with the model 3 counter because I ordered from the UK early morning hours just as the reveal event was starting but only got the confirmation email a the following Monday. A few minutes after I had placed the order, Elon came to the stage and said the order count stands at 115K.
Now the model3 counter predicts the following:
Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 369,899 and shipping date is April 2020.
There is no way my position in line can be 369,897. The actual delivery shipping position/date in queue might be further than 120K but my current position in line should be 120k or thereabouts.
Now the model3 counter predicts the following:
Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 369,899 and shipping date is April 2020.
There is no way my position in line can be 369,897. The actual delivery shipping position/date in queue might be further than 120K but my current position in line should be 120k or thereabouts.
I can't believe that I signed up on the teslacounter website. I foolishly thought it was a Tesla MC website and now I don't see any way to opt out of it. I hope I haven't made a huge mistake giving out my registration info to strangers. BTW, I stood near the front of the line as the store opened the first day (March 31 in Arizona) and this "tool" estimated I would be in the 260xxx's so it is obviously a total pile of crap -- and makes me even more concerned that the data is being collected for nefarious purposes. BEWARE!!!
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I was there in AZ also. The ticket guy saved the day. I was about number 25 in line.
Hi Fred, thanks for checking out our counter. Again, we can only provide our estimate. But one of our BIGGEST assumptions is that the Tesla server(s) are rational and are sending out emails sequentially - first in first out. This is also consistent with the fact that they had a huge delay for the first few days - the server(s) were overloaded, but we are assumed that they acted as they should, create a queue and then first in first out.
So for that reason we're basing the estimate of the date and time of the email confirmation. Our estimate is pretty rough right now, as we had to make a few additional assumptions. But we're having quite a bit of fun doing this and are working on refining our algorithm so the accuracy will improve. If you checked off to get an email when we update then stay tuned!, otherwise check back soon and we'll hopefully have a new estimate out (note: you'll still be able to see your old estimate to compare and see how we're doing).
Hi Paul,
Good point on the RN#! Our initial thought was that it would serve as a good password that people could reference when they wanted to log back in - we quickly learned this was not appropriate. We've updated the site so you just make a password now. We also removed the last name since it wasn't really doing anything for the estimate either.
My reply to Fred above explains why we're asking for the email confirmation date and time. We initially wanted to use the time that the payment was authorized by Tesla/credit card company. But some credit card companies don't keep the time stamp after the payment is confirmed, and I think the last thing Tesla wants right now is a bunch of people calling in asking for the time their payment was confirmed, haha.
We're definitely planning on publishing some data, and I'm pretty excited to see it myself!
Hi Jayc, so we've adjusted the site because, agreed, we were asking for too much info (don't need your RN# or last name). But the estimated position we came up with for you for your position in line incorporates a few things:
- The first reservation was made by a guy in Sydney, Australia (Andreas Stephens) - so reservations actually began on March 30th PDT
- The rate of reservations changed throughout the first 36 - 48 hours
- Anyone who is currently a Tesla owner or is a Tesla employee is going to be given priority over everyone else in the reservation line as a thank you for their loyalty.
- We know we need to incorporate is the regional factor into our algorithm - we're working on this now. It's a bit complicated since we need to basically put ourselves in the Tesla executives shoes and figure out the best way to distribute the cars around the world (full disclosure there will be some assumptions made). But we are aware that its something big that needs to be incorporated into our estimate.
FYI; within our algorithm we do come up with an estimate of the actual reservation number you made, but since there are more factors playing into it, we wanted the focus to be on the number that really affects when we'll be getting our cars.
mtndrew1
Active Member
That counter is seriously goofy at the moment. I placed my order at 10 AM on the 31st of March in California by standing in line at a Tesla store. Ten hours later Elon announced on stage that they had just hit 115,000 pre-orders at that moment.
My estimated spot in line is 296405. So, yeah, no.
My estimated spot in line is 296405. So, yeah, no.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I signed up - gave my RN and immediately regretted it. I too was told 200,000+ and I know I was in the first 115,000. So, don't trust the algorithms, don't trust giving out my data...asked them to delete all submitted. Have not heard back.
Hi, I'm one of the creators of the Tesla 3 Counter. If you've sent us an email asking for your data to be deleted it will be (there's just three of us that built it and are supporting it, plus we all have jobs so time is in short supply). That being said we are using the data in aggregate to refine our algorithm. I apologize that you're not getting the result you want, but we are only providing estimates - I can't stress this enough. Our goal is to increase the accuracy of our estimate as we refine our model/algorithm. Keep in mind that there are currently quite a few Tesla owners (and people that are already on a Model X or S waiting list) as well as many Tesla employees - we assume (as stated by Elon) these reservation holders will take priority over the other people in line which pushes your position up (this is not our decision, but we feel it's an important factor that we should incorporate into our model).
Again, please don't be too upset. We are confident in our algorithm, and are going to continue to refine it. It's definitely not perfect, but as we come out with updates to the algorithm you will be able to check back and see how our estimates of current reservation position and delivery date have changed. We will also include some notes to describe what new factors or adjustments have been made to the new version of the algorithm.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
If this is posted somewhere else I apologize but does anyone have any idea how many reservations have been made by region? I am in Atlanta so I know we will be down the list a ways but it would be kind of cool to see how many there are from each area of the country.
I think the best info on this out there right now is being done by Paul Carter. Check out his site: Model3Tracker.info
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