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Not so much, they are holding pretty steady. The big takeaway from 2016 versus 2015 so far is that car sales are down, while truck sales are up. Total sales are up 1.2% overall. My guess is that cheap gas is the primary contributor.
RT
RT
Not just that gas is cheaper, but I think people are starting to see trucks as a good value for certain leisure activities. They are very utilitarian and when properly equipped, they really pack a lot of luxury. A $70k F150 might seem outrageous until you realize just how much stuff you can get in it.
I was looking a bit into European sales and it is difficult to see a trend other than a more significant fall for BMW 3/4. Of course part of it due to the fact that BMW/Merc/Audi sell more in Europe (monthly sales of these models are roughly double than in the US) and it is more difficult to spot a drop. Also, for a long time it was said that model 3 cars will be delivered later to Europe...
P.S. a lot of models in the table are really at the end of their "natural" life, such as BMW 5, MB E-class, Audi A4, both Volvos...
P.S. a lot of models in the table are really at the end of their "natural" life, such as BMW 5, MB E-class, Audi A4, both Volvos...
The Audi A4 seems to have a lot of mindshare and brand value around here. I can't imagine why -- they have a horrible repair record, thin paint, a crowded interior... but anyway, it's interesting to see that their sales are still holding up. I wonder when Model 3 will start cutting into their sales; probably not until it's actually available.
Tesla is going to dig into the lower-end luxury sedan market probably through 2019 if other brands adapt slowly. I would expect that when BMW, Volvo, etc get their act together and build competing electric cars WITH INCENTIVES, that'll close any gap in battery saving Tesla is able to offer.
The question is, by the time these new electric players lose their incentives, will their infrastructure and battery technology allow them to compete?
The question is, by the time these new electric players lose their incentives, will their infrastructure and battery technology allow them to compete?
ummgood
Member
I really think we also need to include some small crossovers in this list to get a true picture. A lot of manufacturers are really going that route to scoop up the small luxury sedan market. I see a ton of Lexus NX and RX running around here. Plus the infiniti QX50, BMW X3 and X1, Audi Q3 and Q5 etc... I wonder if that is where part of the sales decline is going. It would be interesting to see them in the tables because honestly those are the cars that are competing with the luxury sedans in the US.
July numbers are in, the Hyundai Genesis is the latest entrant into the Red Zone. I'll have to e-mail Tesla and see if they would be willing to replace the worn out red pixels in my monitor...
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Where does this put Tesla in total US EV sales? I thought last I heard they were nearing 100K
Strong US sales of the Volt surpass the Model S for JulyMonthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
View attachment 188619
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 Jul 86,804 (14,240 Model S and 7,690 Model X = 21,390 for Jan-Jul 2016 + prior years)
So if I got the math right we are at 86,800 or so at end of July. At 3,200 a month they'll hit US 100,000 in November 2016. If sales ramp up it could happen earlier, if sales slow it could happen after Christmas (the big end of year push gets tons of cars delivered the last week of Dec).
I'd also say that means they won't hit 200,000 in the US before Model 3 starts production.
I think the thing that confuses so many is Tesla talks about increased production rates, but in reality the majority of the increase production is going to foreign countries (as close as Canada and as far away as Asia).
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Your math is correct for 86.8K sales to date in the US.
However, the 2Q16 report states increased production of 50K for 2H16.
I would estimate 60% would be foreign bound, so add 20K for total estimated US sales of 106K by YE 2016.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Your math is correct for 86.8K sales to date in the US.
However, the 2Q16 report states increased production of 50K for 2H16.
Great but look at 2015 numbers for a second
50,658 produced by Tesla
25,914 counted as US.
We also already have the July numbers for US so you can't add 6 months worth, we only have 5 months left.
I could see an additional 7,000 to 10,000 in the US if they pull the rate up as discussed and that could pull the 100,000 mark closer to October than November but that isn't a huge shift time wise.
Chopr147
Active Member
Looks like it will still be available for model 3 sales. But how many? 50k? Model 3 sales with full credit? If, and that's a big IF the 3 sales start next July. I am hoping for a half credit anyway.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Good point. I think we are in agreement that Tesla will complete 2016 with +100K US sales.
The big question is will cumulative 2017/2018 sales exceed 200K as Model 3 deliveries begin ...
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Here is an article on this topic timing Tesla’s new Model 3 production plan will optimize access to the federal tax credit
Even it tesla hits 200k US sales before M3 production....they could still have 300k+ US M3 owners take the credit in some form. If they hit 200k US sales on October 1st 2017 and they begin M3 production at that point, Tesla has 6 months of full credit M3 production, 6 months of half credit and another 6 months of 1/4 credit. How many M3's do you think they could produce from October 2017-March 2019? There is no need to worry from any current reservation holders even if you reserved today.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters.
For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit
It's entirely possible that it will trigger sooner and run out sooner but the important concept is that it doesn't go away immediately and when it starts going away it diminishes slowly not all at once.
If Tesla is pumping out 10,000 plus a month in 2018 they could easily sell 50,000 or more with the full tax credit They could then be selling double that amount in the next 6 months with half tax credit. And then double rate again with 1/4 tax credit. All in all hundreds of thousands of Model 3s could be sold with federal tax credit.
Keep in mind Tesla can game this slightly by focusing on overseas deliveries of Model S and Model X the month they are going to roll over 200,000 US deliveries. If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Great example. Therefore, based on your estimate of 10K per month for Model 3 production:
30K - Q1 2018 Full amount
30K - Q2 2018 Full amount
30K - Q3 2018 50% of full amount
30K - Q4 2018 50% of full amount
30K - Q1 2019 25% of full amount
30K - Q2 2019 25% of full amount
180K - Total 60K full credit, 120K partial credits. So approximately half of the current reservations.
Therefore, based on your estimate of 10K per month for Model 3 production:30K - Q1 2018 Full amount
30K - Q2 2018 Full amount
30K - Q3 2018 50% of full amount
30K - Q4 2018 50% of full amount
30K - Q1 2019 25% of full amount
30K - Q2 2019 25% of full amount
180K - Total 60K full credit, 120K partial credits. So approximately half of the current reservations.
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