Model 3 waiters in California - please post here

[LOL@GAS]

I just back from the Costa Mesa orientation where they invite future owners to learn and ask questions about your car to speed up the process when checking out. The sales rep mention to everyone that all orders in Fremont goes to Europe first, then east, mid, and then west California is always last. If you ordered mid October expect delivery sometime the last 2-weeks of DEC. yes! The last 2-weeks of Dec is going to be a mad house in Costa Mesa cause they said that’s when they’ll get full batch around that time. For those who orders end of Sept. first week of Oct. expect perhaps mid to end Nov. The struggle is real people! Lots of people like me will have to reapply for our loan as car loans approval expires after 30-days. They suggest to reapply once you get a delivery date to be sure. Hang in there Cali peeps!

 

[OverEZPZ]

Taking delivery of the car in late December wouldn’t bother me one bit if Tesla would put a little more effort into QA’ing their own work. Last thing I want is to get assigned a car with all sorts of problems and then not have enough time to locate a new car before the federal tax credit expires. Sadly, I’m coming to terms that I’ll most likely take delivery of a car that I’d otherwise reject.

 

[Blackburnrover]

Sorry, I feel all of your pain. No VIN here yet either, but the tracker spreadsheet is soooo much easier to follow once I filter out of the Cali data.

 

[jonquiljo]

I just back from the Costa Mesa orientation where they invite future owners to learn and ask questions about your car to speed up the process when checking out. The sales rep mention to everyone that all orders in Fremont goes to Europe first, then east, mid, and then west California is always last. If you ordered mid October expect delivery sometime the last 2-weeks of DEC. yes! The last 2-weeks of Dec is going to be a mad house in Costa Mesa cause they said that’s when they’ll get full batch around that time. For those who orders end of Sept. first week of Oct. expect perhaps mid to end Nov. The struggle is real people! Lots of people like me will have to reapply for our loan as car loans approval expires after 30-days. They suggest to reapply once you get a delivery date to be sure. Hang in there Cali peeps!

I haven't been to So Cal in a long time, but if it is as crazy as No. Cal - then it will be one big zoo when it comes time for delivery.

That's what I don't understand - California is a logistical nightmare all in it's own. What few roads we have are often crowded and congested. I mean SF and San Jose are really tough places to get around it - or to and from. And at X-mas time???!!! That is all nuts!

I'm going to hold out for the optimistic interpretation that California will see a slow but steady trickle throughout December. And again, what are the Tesla staff going to do? It takes a lot of people to deliver a Tesla. Do you mean that many of these people have been forced out of work all these months? Whether Elon Musk likes it or not, a good percentage of all Teslas are bought here. Musk lives here, so he knows this place is a parking lot.

So Cal is even more congested.

I guess there is a little thing about customer service too. We rush to order only to find out it doesn't matter one bit when we actually order? Yes, Elon, that is really going to make US customers (esp. Californians) want to recommend Tesla to friends, let alone buy another one!

I guess I have no problem if the wait was just like anyone else. OK ... rant over.

 

[bangtan]

OCTOBER 9, NO VIN, PICKING UP IN BURBANK

SR+
MIDNIGHT SILVER METALLIC
18" AERO WHEELS
ALL BLACK PARTIAL PREMIUM INTERIOR
AUTOPILOT

 

[BlueMartian]

I just attended the Owners Workshop in Marina Del Rey and I can confirm that all the Tesla sales advisors said that all vehicles will be delivered the last 2 weeks of December. They are anticipating large crowds due to the number of pickups occurring at that time of the year. The manager even stated that they will be extending pickup hours until as late at 10 pm during those 2 weeks. Hope this helps

 

[dandrewk]

Let's dispense with this "not expecting cars until the last two weeks of December". That's total nonsense, and the reason they say that is to avoid complaints. They don't want social media slamming them "We were promised delivery first week of December" etc.

Why nonsense?: Logistics and 4th quarter deliveries and profit. We all know Tesla is highly leveraged and depends on good results to keep the capital flowing. We also know that LR/AWD is the most popular trim, and quite likely the most profitable. We also know that nearly 50% of Model 3's are from California.

So let's do the math. Tesla delivered 80,000 Model 3's last quarter. They should easily do the same this quarter. Let's say they've booked 30,000 California orders (being conservative here). How many delivery locations are in California? In the Bay Area there are only two, so there isn't a ton of them. Maybe 10? 15? Let's go with 15, which is probably higher than reality. 30000/15=2000 cars per delivery center. Spread over 13 days (assuming only one day off for holidays, there are probably a few more). That's 153 deliveries per day per delivery center. And it's a safe bet that the SF and SoCal delivery centers will take a much heavier load than others.

Won't happen, not a chance, not if Tesla wants good results. And I think the numbers I used are way conservative.

I asked my local SA, a guy who's been there for a long time and (I believe) is the manager. He gave me the "We don't know when" spiel. He then looked and saw my trim (LR/AWD) and said they were told the factory will be producing a huge batch of LR/AWD this month, so "You'll probably get yours sooner than others".

Most likely, they either are, or will soon, be cranking out LR/AWD's to fill all or most outstanding orders. Those will ship east first and westward from there. From looking at the spreadsheet, that may already been happening. This gives them the best chance to -deliver- their biggest selling, highest profitable car.

;tldr LR/AWDs delivered by end of November/early December. Other trims to follow.

 

[jonquiljo]

Let's dispense with this "not expecting cars until the last two weeks of December". That's total nonsense, and the reason they say that is to avoid complaints. They don't want social media slamming them "We were promised delivery first week of December" etc.

Why nonsense?: Logistics and 4th quarter deliveries and profit. We all know Tesla is highly leveraged and depends on good results to keep the capital flowing. We also know that LR/AWD is the most popular trim, and quite likely the most profitable. We also know that nearly 50% of Model 3's are from California.

So let's do the math. Tesla delivered 80,000 Model 3's last quarter. They should easily do the same this quarter. Let's say they've booked 30,000 California orders (being conservative here). How many delivery locations are in California? In the Bay Area there are only two, so there isn't a ton of them. Maybe 10? 15? Let's go with 15, which is probably higher than reality. 30000/15=2000 cars per delivery center. Spread over 13 days (assuming only one day off for holidays, there are probably a few more). That's 153 deliveries per day per delivery center. And it's a safe bet that the SF and SoCal delivery centers will take a much heavier load than others.

Won't happen, not a chance, not if Tesla wants good results. And I think the numbers I used are way conservative.

I asked my local SA, a guy who's been there for a long time and (I believe) is the manager. He gave me the "We don't know when" spiel. He then looked and saw my trim (LR/AWD) and said they were told the factory will be producing a huge batch of LR/AWD this month, so "You'll probably get yours sooner than others".

Most likely, they either are, or will soon, be cranking out LR/AWD's to fill all or most outstanding orders. Those will ship east first and westward from there. From looking at the spreadsheet, that may already been happening. This gives them the best chance to -deliver- their biggest selling, highest profitable car.

;tldr LR/AWDs delivered by end of November/early December. Other trims to follow.

You're leaving out foreign orders. There was a report today that carriers of cars with foreign license plate holders near the Fremont factory. Foreign orders are a big backlog for Tesla. All this speculation assumes that Tesla is going to make the US first. We don't know that.

There is likely very little difference between a foreign (LHD) Tesla and a N. American one. We don't really know if foreign deliveries aren't more profitable than American ones. If they are - we will be put last - and we will be getting quick and dirty deliveries all through December.

Only Tesla really knows - and not the sales/delivery associates. No one is about to tell us.

 

[dandrewk]

You're leaving out foreign orders. There was a report today that carriers of cars with foreign license plate holders near the Fremont factory. Foreign orders are a big backlog for Tesla. All this speculation assumes that Tesla is going to make the US first. We don't know that.

There is likely very little difference between a foreign (LHD) Tesla and a N. American one. We don't really know if foreign deliveries aren't more profitable than American ones. If they are - we will be put last - and we will be getting quick and dirty deliveries all through December.

Only Tesla really knows - and not the sales/delivery associates. No one is about to tell us.

None of this enters into the equation. It's all about promised delivery times. Tesla can deliver overseas all they want, they still have to make good on promises. And the numbers do not support a massive delivery to California, all squeezed into the holiday season this year.

 

[Kilotango74]

None of this enters into the equation. It's all about promised delivery times. Tesla can deliver overseas all they want, they still have to make good on promises. And the numbers do not support a massive delivery to California, all squeezed into the holiday season this year.

Why do they “have to make good on promises”. I mean really what are you going to do if they just change their delivery timeline......again.

 

[fishyducky]

Just ordered today. Trying to not get too excited as I am not expecting the car until late December.

 

[dandrewk]

Why do they “have to make good on promises”. I mean really what are you going to do if they just change their delivery timeline......again.

True that. But last year the same promises were made, backed up by assurance that Tesla would make good on lost tax credits. This "promise" comes with potential financial penalties if not met, along with a huge outcry that will be heard on Wall Street.

 

[goletaspring]

Ordered 10/12, Sr+; white/white. No vin or updates yet.

 

[KissMyAssGas84]

Your conservative estimate is that Tesla has 30,000 CA deliveries to make before year end?

I don’t know...I think aside from buying time and preventing going stir crazy we are all basically playing a fantasy football type “When Will my Tesla Arrive?” Game.

Everyone that I have spoke with at Tesla from order date to now has said unequivocally that I will not get a car until December.

I’m obviously hoping it comes earlier but I’m certainly not as confident as a few in this forum on that being an under promise over deliver

 

[jonquiljo]

None of this enters into the equation. It's all about promised delivery times. Tesla can deliver overseas all they want, they still have to make good on promises. And the numbers do not support a massive delivery to California, all squeezed into the holiday season this year.

Massive chaos in California if they try that.

Why do they “have to make good on promises”. I mean really what are you going to do if they just change their delivery timeline......again.

Very good point! Tesla has no obligation to make good on promises. We are nobody. Tesla needs to make a profit in Q4 since it barely squeezed on on the books in Q3. Wall St. care about profits - and it all depends on who will be most profitable to Tesla.

All I know is that something seems off here. It's just a feeling that started when Tesla lowered the deposit from $2500 to $100. It made no sense at all to me. Also the radical swings in delivery times - are they real or are we just being told what they want us to hear.

If the Europeans are more profitable, then Tesla will send lots of cars to them over us. Tesla promises to everyone.

I hope @dandrewk is right and I am wrong. I really do!

 

[Fred42]

Taking delivery of the car in late December wouldn’t bother me one bit if Tesla would put a little more effort into QA’ing their own work. Last thing I want is to get assigned a car with all sorts of problems and then not have enough time to locate a new car before the federal tax credit expires. Sadly, I’m coming to terms that I’ll most likely take delivery of a car that I’d otherwise reject.

Build quality has improved a lot.

 

[dandrewk]

I hope @dandrewk is right and I am wrong. I really do!

Me too!

If not, just imagine the fever pitch in this forum the 2nd week in December!

 

[jonquiljo]

Me too!

If not, just imagine the fever pitch in this forum the 2nd week in December!

It will be absolutely crazy! I never understood why people went out and shopped and shopped during the holidays. Traffic, etc. will be horrendous. What - even delivering 100 cars per day at a delivery center will be totally nuts!

I'm not sure that is going to happen.

 

[dandrewk]

I’ve seen the SC on Van Ness. No way they can store unload, store, process and deliver 100 cars every day.

 

[LOL@GAS]

How many Model 3's can Fremont pump out a day? I heard from the rep at Costa Mesa they can pump out 1K a week. I thought it was 5K a week?