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Model S Accident/Fire

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My friend I'm with you--I wish I were on the Tesla payroll.

Talking to this one wife into it was hard enough--I did it all.

Then one sorry a** report that was nothing at the end of the day killed it. "Our kids could be killed"--that's an exact quote. I'm not going there.

I think my point is bigger than my friends, I'm worried about the others thinking the same thing on an order of magnitude in the thousands.

We have all received jabs from friends, which is fine. What I'm concerned is what about all of those perspective buyers we DON'T know, and don't have an oppty to explain things.

Heck, I can't even convince those people I DO know to buy one at this point.

Just pissed...back to the vino.

Send her these:
Google Image Result for http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/6959/500xr8fire.jpg
Google Image Result for http://ashest.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/a4-fire.jpg
Google Image Result for http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/audi-fire1.jpg
Google Image Result for http://arcadiaweekly.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/firett.jpg
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I find the description of the metallic object interesting where the levering action b/c of the precise shape and orientation were what forced it through. Hope someone produces a graphic using the actual object. Kind of a 1 in a million incident.

maybe it was something like this:

metal-pole-through-truck-cab.jpg
 
Well, FWIW, I'm still looking for signs that there was actually a cascade rather than just multiple ruptures. But frankly I'm tired of playing the terminology game (and apparently other people are as well) since we clearly see things differently. Cells vs. modules for example.

"The data is consistent" with all kinds of things that aren't reality, so I prefer to focus on what the evidence supports or suggests rather than just "what it's consistent with".

So I'll just call everything I see as a Cascade(TM) and "consistent with the facts" and be done with it. Apparently, you'd prefer to do that.

I didn't say you made up facts, I said you weren't entitled to your own (at least that's what I recall). But whatever, if you want to dwell on it and be unhappy then fine. Start a "BrianMan gave me angst" thread and move it all there. I'm done with it, and based on feedback I've gotten in various ways apparently others are too.


For future reference, when I see words like "cascade" and "consistent with" I'll just ignore the post and move on. It's apparently not worth my time or effort trying to quell the drama by attempting to push the conversation to more precise and accurate terminology.

I'm not sure why the strong reaction to CO's posts.

He was conjecturing based on evidence available (and yes, a video of an event in progress is evidence), on what events led up to the evidence he could see. Just like everybody else.

Unfortunately, not all evidence is direct. Some is indirect. That does not, however, prevent it from providing some context by which to form an opinion about events not directly observable.

The fire itself, the violent nature of it's exiting under some pressure, the location of the erupting flames, all allow one to favor some causes above others. This was not a "lazy fire". It was exiting with significant force behind the wheel wells. There were some potential ignition flashes evident in the video.

It's not unreasonable to assume that the main pack was involved. Furthermore that implies batteries adjacent to the ones producing that energy are being exposed to ignition temperatures above their threshold. Therefore it's reasonable to surmise there would be a cascade effect.

It's apparently not worth my time or effort trying to quell the drama by attempting to push the conversation to more precise and accurate terminology.

On the contrary, IIRC you took issue with cells within the same module (as opposed "across modules") suffering ignition as being categorized as a cascade effect. As far as I can tell with the definitions, that artificial limitation is your inaccuracy, not CO's. Batteries cascade when one or more cells experience thermal runaway, and in turn ignite adjacent cells... be it 1, 100, or 1,000. Even if that chain reaction is eventually terminated for whatever reason, be it running out of batteries, being doused with water, or being stifled by the built-in safeguards at the module boundary, a cascade event still occurred.

CO's terminology was accurate when he stated his opinion regarding what occurred. It was other folks that took liberties, as far as I can see.
 
Unfortunately, not all evidence is direct. Some is indirect. That does not, however, prevent it from providing some context by which to form an opinion about events not directly observable.
I did some googling of this for the legal terms and it seems you guys are talking about "circumstantial evidence" (which points to multiple causes and needs inference and corroborating evidence) and what we wanted was "direct evidence" (which we have plenty of now).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstantial_evidence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_evidence


The fire itself, the violent nature of it's exiting under some pressure, the location of the erupting flames, all allow one to favor some causes above others. This was not a "lazy fire". It was exiting with significant force behind the wheel wells. There were some potential ignition flashes evident in the video.

It's not unreasonable to assume that the main pack was involved. Furthermore that implies batteries adjacent to the ones producing that energy are being exposed to ignition temperatures above their threshold. Therefore it's reasonable to surmise there would be a cascade effect.
As for the whole explanation of the cascade thing, I believe there was no such analysis at the point we were asking for evidence. I remember mention about the firewall partitioning and how it's designed to vent toward the front (Elon says it's actually designed to vent toward the bottom and the only reason why it went front was because of the holes the firemen punctured in the firewall), but no pointing out of how the video is evidence of this. It's easy to point out things with hindsight, but at that point I don't believe the video was used as evidence of this. I believe the analysis was that the fire was in front, then the supposed pack design, and that Tesla did not explicitly exclude the battery pack being involved, which lead to the conclusion it was the battery.

On the contrary, IIRC you took issue with cells within the same module (as opposed "across modules") suffering ignition as being categorized as a cascade effect. As far as I can tell with the definitions, that artificial limitation is your inaccuracy, not CO's. Batteries cascade when one or more cells experience thermal runaway, and in turn ignite adjacent cells... be it 1, 100, or 1,000. Even if that chain reaction is eventually terminated for whatever reason, be it running out of batteries, being doused with water, or being stifled by the built-in safeguards at the module boundary, a cascade event still occurred.
The first thing people think about when "cascade" is mentioned is the Boeing incident. And I think the criteria for that is eventual total pack failure if uncontrolled. That's why there's the talk about module vs cells.

And I believe the term used was "cascade failure of the pack" which implies the whole pack would eventually fail and fits with the "module cascade".
 
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time is a stripper, and she will reveal all.

^^^ LOVE that quote! It's why I think the visceral emotional reactions we are seeing on the board against fair discussion that might have a negative implication re: Tesla are so misguided.

24 hours ago, theorizing that the battery pack was involved was heresy, even when caveated that it appeared to be working as intended by venting the flames. If you suggested the battery pack was involved, you were being a troll or negative. And have the negative rep points to prove it.

Now those facts are out, confirmed by Elon, and folks are cheering Tesla's design. As they should be, but where was the faith and cheering back when there was uncertainty even when the design was credited in the same breath as battery pack involvement?

The uncertainty today is the fire frequency and simply not taking comfort from twisted statistics. Time will tell, and I expect this issue will be long forgotten in 18 months from now when no fires emerge. But there's no certainty, so flag this food for thought if we get another fire or two in the next year. Because Elon could give you the same questionable stats, Tesla will still look great on them, but it would start to be concerning.
 
I knew there was a reason I was staying out of this thread. You guys sound like girls I knew in junior high. Like srsly.

The issue is the fire. Not who said what and used what word when in what post where. It's not about the posters here. It's about an event. I could see one or two posts of disagreement. But c'mon! Enough already. Let's rock those big boy pants!!

bick·er

1 [bik-er] verb (used without object)1.to engage in petulant or peevish argument; wrangle: The two were always bickering. See Model S Accident/Fire for example.

2.to run rapidly; move quickly; rush; hurry: a stream bickering down the valley.

3.to flicker; glitter: The sun bickered through the trees.


noun4.an angry, petty dispute or quarrel; contention.


 
I suppose the answer to my own question would come from the SpaceX folks. Use "explosive bolts" such as those that enable clean separation of a rocket stage in flight.

At one point long, long, long ago I worked in the "orbital platform" (can't call em 'sats, that'd be a dead give away) biz. The pyro's were almost sure to fail in some egregious way...either going off early, not going off at all, or not shearing the bolt cleanly.

Cool idea to be able to drop the battery quickly though.
 
I have a P85 on order. Confirm the coming week. Did this affect me? Yes I have considered cancelling the order. My first thought was "damn this could be the new dreamliner"... Pretty sure this do affect potential buyers in a negative way. I still think I will order but get comcerned about the value of the car if this is something bigger than a random event. Trust is very hard to gain and extremely easy to loose. On the positive side there is so much to love about this car... Just my feedback as a customer on order but not confirmed yet.
 
I have a P85 on order. Confirm the coming week. Did this affect me? Yes I have considered cancelling the order. My first thought was "damn this could be the new dreamliner"... Pretty sure this do affect potential buyers in a negative way. I still think I will order but get comcerned about the value of the car if this is something bigger than a random event. Trust is very hard to gain and extremely easy to loose. On the positive side there is so much to love about this car... Just my feedback as a customer on order but not confirmed yet.

With that logic, you literally can't buy anything, because it could catch on fire.

Did you read Elon's statement? I'm more confident in this car than ever. IMO, this event may be a net positive overall for Tesla. It's not as clear cut as Brodergate but I still think Tesla comes out on top looking like a competent company with a well-designed car.
 
I have a P85 on order. Confirm the coming week. Did this affect me? Yes I have considered cancelling the order. My first thought was "damn this could be the new dreamliner"... Pretty sure this do affect potential buyers in a negative way. I still think I will order but get comcerned about the value of the car if this is something bigger than a random event. Trust is very hard to gain and extremely easy to loose. On the positive side there is so much to love about this car... Just my feedback as a customer on order but not confirmed yet.

Any other car can catch fire. Anything that has some sort of powerdistributing system can catch fire. Imho what the car demonstrated is that it's safer then any other cars currently on the market.
The people who are worried about a car catching fire, they shouldn't buy a car at all. All cars can catch fire.
But, I do understand your point, sad to say, you are correct, people will be affected by it and would probably buy another car, expecting .... ???
 
I know that any car can catch fire. Seen many volvo burning at the highway over here... ;-) The comcern that do disturb you is more of a "maybe there is something more going on"... You know the feeling in the gut... I tend to avoid the first year production for most cars as there usually are many small faults. tesla seem to have fixed many things. I did get the email from Tesla. But still have a disturbing feeling. Thought I share as a potential customer and non TSLA investor. No clue how others think but it will probably affect sales a couple of months. Just my thoughts. I will probably confirm the car anyway. It was way to fun to drive... Lets go down in a ball of fire. ;-)
 
The concerning Tesla Model S is beyond repair. It's a loss.
But what will happen now? Who is to be blamed for the damage?
Will the insurance pay for a new Tesla Model S (was there an all-risk insurance policy?)?
How do they do this in the US?
 
I have a P85 on order. Confirm the coming week. Did this affect me? Yes I have considered cancelling the order. My first thought was "damn this could be the new dreamliner"... Pretty sure this do affect potential buyers in a negative way. I still think I will order but get comcerned about the value of the car if this is something bigger than a random event. Trust is very hard to gain and extremely easy to loose. On the positive side there is so much to love about this car... Just my feedback as a customer on order but not confirmed yet.

You have nothing to fear but fear itself.