kevincwelch
Active Member
The Model S struck a metal object causing this much damage - - so much force - - yet the driver had to be pleasantly reminded to pull over safely and exit the vehicle?
Something else here.
Something else here.
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Not to get snippy but ...
Just received this email (which we have already dissected 100x's over) from Tesla in mailbox--2 hours after blog post.
At least they are proactively reaching out--but they need to reach out to press, not just current owners:
Is the friend that cancelled buying another car or is he in a holding pattern?
In other words is the sale lost to Tesla forever or is there a possibility of getting it back.
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The Model S struck a metal object causing this much damage - - so much force - - yet the driver had to be pleasantly reminded to pull over safely and exit the vehicle?
Something else here.
The quote from Elon's blog post is: "This means you are 5 times more likely to experience a fire in a conventional gasoline car than a Tesla!" Right now all Model S's are relatively new and not all conventional cars are new. But this doesn't invalidate his statement. Pick a Model S at random and pick a conventional car at random and it certainly does seem that the conventional car is more prone to fires. Now I think the issue is that you think his statement implies that you are 5 times more likely to experience a fire in a COMPARABLE gasoline car than a Tesla and then his statement would be inaccurate and/or misleading. But I don't read that into the statement and therefore I don't find the statement misleading.
Not sure I read about that during my MBA program, but I can assure you Wall Street cares about backlog, reservations and closed sales--period.
"Weeding out" owner candidates means nothing.
There hasn't been anything else since it happened. Oh, just a few minor PR issues--all the bad press, 1M youtube views, and all of the other BS that comes with the mainstream press spinning something innocent into this nightmare.
One is gone, called my buddy, and wife insisted they buy an Audi--period. Going tomorrow to get a A7--hate that.
The other is probably going with Cayenne at this point per the wife. What is unfortunate about this, as we all know the wife makes the decisions (and women don't start on the sexist crap, not in the mood for it) generally on car purchases. Here in Austin (in my circle of friends), the wife stay's home, watch Good Morning America or whatever trash morning show, and then by the time the husband gets home, all of them know Tesla's catch fire--don't care about facts, just heard it from some idiot reporter on TV--and it's gospel. Two Tesla sales gone--after I have worked my a** off to convince them other wise. I hate this crap.
Oh, just a few minor PR issues--all the bad press, 1M youtube views, and all of the other BS that comes with the mainstream press spinning something innocent into this nightmare.
But, other than that, no, nothing here. Just a bunch of happy Tesla owners.
Regarding your friend's purchase decisions, if it's the husband's car, it should be the husband's decision. Wife's car, wife's decision.
One is gone, called my buddy, and wife insisted they buy an Audi--period. Going tomorrow to get a A7--hate that. We were all going to Austin Gallery tomorrow to just wrap up color, and then order. After this crap yesterday--all went into toilet fast.
The other is probably going with Cayenne at this point per the wife. What is unfortunate about this, as we all know the wife makes the decisions (and women don't start on the sexist crap, not in the mood for it) generally on car purchases. Here in Austin (in my circle of friends), the wife stay's home, watch Good Morning America or whatever trash morning show, and then by the time the husband gets home, all of they know Tesla's catch fire--don't care about facts, just heard it from some idiot reporter on TV--and it's gospel.
Two Tesla sales gone--after I have worked my a** off to convince them other wise. I hate this crap.
There hasn't been anything else since it happened. Oh, just a few minor PR issues--all the bad press, 1M youtube views, and all of the other BS that comes with the mainstream press spinning something innocent into this mightmare.
But, other than that, no, nothing here.
Now we are getting into semantics. I believe it's pretty clear no one was asking for 100% proof that the battery was involved in the fire or started the fire. But they were asking for evidence for that. This can include eyewitness statements that mention the pack (didn't happen), the fire department report I linked which mention the pack, Tesla's statements which mention the pack, or a picture that shows the pack on fire or with fire damage, etc. None of these prove the pack was where the fire started (and the statements are not clear proof the pack was actually involved), but it's evidence that the pack was involved.I'm curious as to this notion that the video is not "evidence". There are a very large number of visual facts available in the video that categorically exclude a very large number of possible scenarios, while being consistent, and even strongly consistent, with others. Both you and Brianman have now accused me of making statements in the absence of evidence or facts, and in the case of Brianman it kinda pissed me off because he actually accused me of making facts up.
Is the fundamental disagreement here that when you guys are saying there were no "facts" or "evidence" supporting a battery fire, you are just misusing language when in fact the term you are looking for is "proof"?
I'm genuinely interesting in knowing if this is the source of disagreement. I never claimed to have proof of anything.
pfq, fwiw, what I meant by my "standing on a whale... " comment, was that after 80 pages of speculation, we get by far the most definitive information from Tesla, and, indeed there's high confidence that there is no fundamental design flaw discovered, is it really the most compelling point of discussion to debate whether his reassurances about the car's safety in relationship to ICE car's is too inaccurate because there are ICE cars of all ages out there?
Look, we all got some good news to end this week, so I'm sorry if that comes across as argumentative... let's just say, hey can we just feel good about what we learned from his blog for a while?
a note to Tex: wow, just saw what you personally experienced past two days with friends changing there minds. I can see why you wonder about this.
Take them on a test drive, they'll change their mind. Or perhaps put it into their perspective. I drive so much that driving an ICE car would be like throwing away a few Louis Vuitton handbags every month in gas expensive and oil changes.
Actually why don't you just show them videos of ICE cars blowing up (with ppl in it). That's 5x more likely to happen than an MS catching on fire. Or perhaps show them pictures of high speed collisions in ICE vehicles and the gruesome aftermath vs headon tesla collisions where the passenger compartment remains unscathed. Do you have kids? Safest car to drive them around in is a Model S, not a Porsche. You want to put your kids in danger? Then drive them around in a Porsche instead of a Model S. You get the point. Just try harder. Or do what I did - buy the car first and then tell the wife you bought it afterwards. Better to ask for forgiveness than for permission.
Perhaps my note wasn't clear. I don't think Model S is more prone with age, but even if it was it's a non-issue since the fleet is not even 1 year old on average.
My concern is Elon uses the 150k car fire stat. This includes fires of all kinds for all cars. So lets realize the average age of the population is ~ 11 years, and most of those fires are related to typical ICE issues in the engine block, or old 12Vs, etc. These are cars that have had a lot of lifetime miles put on them, have been through weather, and have aging components. In other words, they are prone to fire. The 150k represents a stat for a population that is prone to fire.
I believe the mistake occurs when he calculates frequency with miles-driven and uses it as a basis of comparison. IF every fire is a random occurrence (like running over debris), Elon would be correct. Random occurrences happen with constant frequencies over many miles driven, so the comparison would be fine.
BUT, most of those 150k AREN'T related to random events like running over road debris. They are related to the typical engine block/12V/fuel line things you would expect. Things that are at risk as components age and fail. Things that, by the way, aren't found in the Model S (except the 12V, but again you have an age issue).
So Elon effectively says "look at our super rare frequency of a random fire related to driving miles (like running over debris) of our new cars vs. the more common frequency of fires of all sorts related to cars averaging a decade older". -> Of course the Model S is going to look golden!
I don't doubt the claim that BEVs are safer than ICE cars. I just take issue with using all these statistics to provide false credence. I think it's misleading, and, if you perceive that, it begs the question why. Maybe the answer is to dazzle the 99% of folks who won't appreciate the issue.
Or maybe I'm wrong -- that's why I'm asking for someone to point out how I'm wrong
Well if it were that easy then yes--but not in most families.
And one was the wife's car.