timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
Well, I'll add to the discussion then 
Since I've been maintaining the delivery spreadsheet and generally watch these and the TM forums for updates like a hawk, I've gotten a pretty good handle on delivery data. What I can say is I've seen a notable drop in new delivery range reports this week. I've seen 8 new ones since Monday, but they were all bunched up on Monday (with a few on Wednesday). I've also seen a couple reports of people having their ranges pushed back 1-2 weeks.
My assessment: There's been another part shortage/delay, and it appears to either be a common part for the car or one of the more popular items. This is causing a serious delay for them, which is unfortunate, but not entirely unexpected. Things happen.
Nonetheless, I'm still positive on my estimation of them completing production of signatures by the end of the month. Elon claimed 359 cars *delivered to customers* last month, so that's about 300 sigs, with 700 left to go. A conservative ramp was 100+150+200+250 per week for this month. That's the 700 extra cars to complete the Sig production. Given they've claimed to be in a steep ramp and were already doing over 100 bodies a week at the end of last month, I would expect the reality being 150+200+250+300, giving us another 200 cars being built this month. A really optimistic ramp would be 150+200+300+400 for an extra 350 cars this month. I think that may be pushing the bounds of reality, though.
Also, there may be a few straggler Sigs or R/P's that get started before the Sig lineup completes, but Tesla has tried to relay that they are entirely focused on getting the Sigs done first. That means the R's and P's that have seen delivery ranges should expect to see their cars at the end of those ranges. Delivery seems to take about 2 weeks after the completion of production and testing. Then, if they are at 300-400 cars per week for the rest of the year, we're looking at 2700-3600 R/P's produced this year.
We'll see what news next week brings. There are a *ton* of people with 10/5-10/19 ranges, so we'll see how many of those they actually hit. We saw some pictures outside the Tesla plant of 6 vehicles waiting to be sent, plus many photos of trucks with multiple vehicles in them. They're certainly getting out there in significant numbers. Hopefully, GeorgeB or Elon will provide another blog update or forum post soon to keep us satisfied.
Since I've been maintaining the delivery spreadsheet and generally watch these and the TM forums for updates like a hawk, I've gotten a pretty good handle on delivery data. What I can say is I've seen a notable drop in new delivery range reports this week. I've seen 8 new ones since Monday, but they were all bunched up on Monday (with a few on Wednesday). I've also seen a couple reports of people having their ranges pushed back 1-2 weeks.
My assessment: There's been another part shortage/delay, and it appears to either be a common part for the car or one of the more popular items. This is causing a serious delay for them, which is unfortunate, but not entirely unexpected. Things happen.
Nonetheless, I'm still positive on my estimation of them completing production of signatures by the end of the month. Elon claimed 359 cars *delivered to customers* last month, so that's about 300 sigs, with 700 left to go. A conservative ramp was 100+150+200+250 per week for this month. That's the 700 extra cars to complete the Sig production. Given they've claimed to be in a steep ramp and were already doing over 100 bodies a week at the end of last month, I would expect the reality being 150+200+250+300, giving us another 200 cars being built this month. A really optimistic ramp would be 150+200+300+400 for an extra 350 cars this month. I think that may be pushing the bounds of reality, though.
Also, there may be a few straggler Sigs or R/P's that get started before the Sig lineup completes, but Tesla has tried to relay that they are entirely focused on getting the Sigs done first. That means the R's and P's that have seen delivery ranges should expect to see their cars at the end of those ranges. Delivery seems to take about 2 weeks after the completion of production and testing. Then, if they are at 300-400 cars per week for the rest of the year, we're looking at 2700-3600 R/P's produced this year.
We'll see what news next week brings. There are a *ton* of people with 10/5-10/19 ranges, so we'll see how many of those they actually hit. We saw some pictures outside the Tesla plant of 6 vehicles waiting to be sent, plus many photos of trucks with multiple vehicles in them. They're certainly getting out there in significant numbers. Hopefully, GeorgeB or Elon will provide another blog update or forum post soon to keep us satisfied.
