Model S future pricing

[LukeT]

Is now a reasonable or silly time to buy a new Model S?

My thoughts:

It now has some competition from the likes of Jag and Audi. And surely a few more competitors will hit the market in the next year or so. Surely considerable downward pressure on price at some point soon (even if the Jag/Audi models aren't enough to really put the pressure on).

The model 3 seems closer to the S than the price differential suggests.

I would've thought production cost of X over S to be a lot higher than the price differential given the various areas in which it's more complex.

Battery cost is steadily and continually reducing. And the model has been in production 7 years.

Given the above points, although Tesla as a whole is barely profitable I assume a lot of that is about investment and growth, so I'd be surprised if it didn't make a sizeable marginal profit on the last model S it sold.

Rumoured new battery, motor type and interior refresh are coming, so surely the last current ones would see some value hit, although I find it hard to believe these changes will come in just a couple of months as I read they're rumoured to be.

On the flip side, Tesla may not stand to suffer from reduced S numbers if the resources used in S production can be easily redeployed in so many more units of the 3 as to be at least as profitable per unit of input. And there are other counter-arguments I'm sure.

I have my own reasons that the above points don't really take me away from the S (range, hatchback, some other less critical preferences) but I'm more interested in views of the market here. I'm essentially ready to push the button, and have decided I'm happy to take this unusual and financially out of character step (I don't buy new or expensive cars normally) for largely environmental reasons but it would be silly not to wait a month or 3 if there's £10k value in doing so. It's a balance. It feels to me that these factors puts net downward pressure on the S price in the fairly near future if not already, yet price changes to date have been both ways, unpredictable, around the edges except for performance variants (which aren't relevant for me, or I guess for most buyers), Musk's latest comment was about raising the price of FSD, and competitors are showing concept cars in their TV ads, which smacks of desperation.

So do you owners and watchers of the market think reductions are coming in the near ish future or do you think they're a long way off or even not coming at all?

 

[jsteele]

I had the same debate earlier this year. Its really difficult to say what might happen with pricing but Tesla is still leading the pack with electric cars so I dont necessarily think prices will drop significantly. I think the timing of any refresh is tricky as well, it could be anytime from a few months to a year or more before we see a refreshed S in the UK. I think if you are happy with what Tesla offers now then it wouldnt be a bad decision to pull the trigger, but I would def get a PCP to protect from larger than expected depreciation.

Another option which I personally went for is a used Model S with a chunk of the depreciation out of the way. This better fit my budget plus the fact I was a bit hesitant about getting a brand new car just before a potential refresh. I think late 2016 - early 2017 is a sweetspot, as they are facelift AP2 models but also with zero tax and free supercharging. Plus get it from Tesla and it still comes with a 4 year warranty.

 

[Dapimp]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see downward movement on used s prices when the 3 comes out as current owners try to offload privately as their pre order model 3 is available.

But that will mainly be early model S cars that were bought second hand rather than facelift models. That’s my 2p.

 

[DJP31]

I think your first decision that have settled on a Model S is a sound one. The competition is still well behind and there's nothing to match the S in sight, except maybe the Taycan in who knows how long. The Supercharger network is unrivalled and will be for a long time to come.

I don't see the price moving downwards, I think it will remain stable but more will come as standard, as we've seen over the last couple of years. Although there's not much in the way of options left tbh.

Personally though and tough as I know it is, I'd wait for a couple of months. Elon confirmed yesterday that all cars now being produced have the FSD computer. The refresh is overdue but I'm not convinced there will be an exterior overhaul that quickly. However there are suggestions the Model 3 motors are likely to be deployed into the S, that'll give an efficiency boost and possibly performance too.

With the Model 3 ramp largely now under control I think the S may see the attention it deserves to remain the flagship of the fleet.

 

[stigmeister]

I think late 2016 - early 2017 is a sweetspot, as they are facelift AP2 models but also with zero tax and free supercharging. Plus get it from Tesla and it still comes with a 4 year warranty.

Yep, I've just decided to keep my March 2017 S90D for those very same reasons. No Supercharging costs and no Tax, plus it has AP2.0 that can be upgraded to FSD HW3 according to Elon. Which I may well do.

I also like the current interior design and a larger display in front of the driver and this by all accounts will be made a lot smaller in future with a similar design to the M3. So I actually see it as an advantage to have those options.

Equally it will be interesting to see how long Tesla continues to update the current Tesla Fleet with older designs. Given that he wants as big a fleet as possible for FSD and most of us in a few years could feasibly just add older cars to the Robotaxi fleet to make some money rather than trade in, it is all of a sudden quite interesting.

Now how far off that actually is for the UK, who knows? I'm convinced it will happen as most big goals Elon has set have been achieved, just not remotely in the timeframe of his ambitions. I'm actually optimistic that if we do unfortunately end up leaving the EU that the UK may well be open to leading in this space with it's legislation.

 

[LukeT]

I also like the current interior design and a larger display in front of the driver and this by all accounts will be made a lot smaller in future with a similar design to the M3. So I actually see it as an advantage to have those options.

The display point is a bit of an interesting one. I haven't been in a Model 3 but the landscape format and lack of a directly in front of you display both seem less good to me.

On battery charging speed and permanent magnet motors I feel agnostic. Gut feel is charging speed isn't going to limit me and I read the permanent magnets are marginally more efficient but also worse in terms of the metals used in manufacture, so swings and roundabouts. However I imagine when whatever is "new" comes out the old stock will get a decent discount, and later on second hand values will favour the refresh.

I have a loan car for a few days coming up so am getting close to decision time except for this judgement around when is the right time.

 

[thegruf]

Tesla is a classic technophobe product - well because it is a massive piece of tech and is evolving along the lines of Moores Law.

There will always be something new to wait for, new motors, new batteries, new interior, new exterior, new Autopilot stuff yada yada just around the corner. You could wait forever and all the time you wait you are not enjoying owning one.

You just have to take the plunge and savour the goodness. For what it's worth there are no massive jumps in resale value for any of the particular historical updates, new nose, AP2 etc. so despite the paranoia anything you buy today will not end up junk value because of an upcoming update.

The simplest way to mitigate this fear of updates is to lease (PCP or whatever your preference) not buy, that way you can alway keep up with the latest at a managed expense.

 

[DJP31]

I have a loan car for a few days coming up so am getting close to decision time except for this judgement around when is the right time.

As @thegruf says in many ways there isn’t a best time, so long as it right for you at the time of purchase. It also depends on whether you are going to custom order or not. If you do you know you have the new FSD chip. However the nearer to the end of the quarter the better the deals get on the inventory stock, often including a better interest rate on PCP.

I don’t think you’ve mentioned whether you’re buying outright or not, but I went PCP partly for the protection it gives against it all going horribly wrong. At least if it does I can walk away.

 

[LukeT]

I'd buy outright with the expectation of owning the car for at least 100k miles.

It sounds like the new motors are into production shortly anyway, from something that popped up this morn:

Tesla's Model S and Model X get new motors with more range

 

[DJP31]

I'd buy outright with the expectation of owning the car for at least 100k miles.

It sounds like the new motors are into production shortly anyway, from something that popped up this morn:

Tesla's Model S and Model X get new motors with more range

I knew it was on the cards but not that soon! Also the Standard range is back, which for many is more than adequate. Plus better suspension and other minor improvements.

The free Ludicrous upgrade for existing owners has my hand reaching for the man maths calculator

 

[LukeT]

This change should do it for me I think.

Anyone know why permenent magnet motor at the front and induction at the rear? The press release implies that the permanent magnet is more efficient but lower torque than a comparable induction motor, but then swapping even one of the motors to permanent magnet would've increased rather than reduced 0-60 times.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I don't buy new or expensive cars normally

me neither .. and same for many other MS / MX buyers of late ...

I also like the current interior design and a larger display in front of the driver and this by all accounts will be made a lot smaller in future with a similar design to the M3

I think it is inconceivable that Tesla will reduce screen size, the Big Brother needs something to justify price. Whether they do away with instruments in front of steering wheel I don't know ...

lack of a directly in front of you display both seem less good to me

I reckon you get used to that in double quick time. I haven't read of anyone who hasn't ... but maybe I haven't read enough posts ...

permanent magnets are marginally more efficient

I read that they are dramatically more efficient in slow moving and stop-go traffic. I do almost none of that though ...

On the Bolt they allow the car to come to complete stop on one-pedal-driving. Many people have said they would like that ... I'm agnostic, if I am stopping in traffic I think there is good chance that Regen won't be enough and I'll use friction brakes anyway, but Regen NOT cutting out at 5 MPH (or whatever it is) would be better, although I've never found it a problem ... my experience is that slowing down on regen to below 5 MPH usually involves enough friction, and distance from car-in-front, to more or less do it on its own anyway.

new Autopilot stuff yada yada

Although ... my car is 3 years old. Whilst I do only have HW1 / AP1 I have all the other enhancements to software that I would get in a brand new car. Things like pin-to-drive has meant I haven't had to bother with putting key fob in Faraday cage (as with other Posh brands with passive-entry), and there are a raft of improvements, and features, that I have got in 3 years of ownership. Some advanced hardware things not available to me ... no FSD of course, but also no sentry mode.

For me:

I can afford a Ferrari or whatever, I've just never chosen to. A totally impractical two seater with no luggage space for high-days and holy-days only ...

Whereas Model-S ticks all my boxes: daily driver, faster than than the Ferrari I used to never persuade myself to own, none of that annoy-the-neighbours noise, acres of luggage space, seats 5 comfortably (although seats 4 more comfortably). Supercharger network is night-and-day compared to 3rd party chargers, and it will be another 3 years or so until Ionix, or whatever, has caught up in coverage (and the Tesla solution is both debugged and, being proprietary, allows any problems to be solved easily, in house, and is being increased in coverage at similar rate to Ionix).

Is now a reasonable or silly time to buy a new Model S?

my 2p worth is that further Refresh will come, be put into production overnight, and no pre-announcement of "when", and it will arrive with a price increase (bigger battery and some more "luxury" to help it compete with iPace / eTron, and differentiate better from M3) ... and then anyone who was hoping for an end-of-line purchase will be stuffed (unless buying Stock). Also likely that the refresh may be piecemeal - that has happened before, there were three battery sizes offered simultaneously when i bought mine, and mine has a variety of bits for the nose-refresh - except the nosecone. As stock ran out they started fitting the new bits ... so new motors first, then the million-mile-battery ...

So don't bank on having advanced notice of when the last day of old model will be

 

[arg]

Anyone know why permenent magnet motor at the front and induction at the rear? The press release implies that the permanent magnet is more efficient but lower torque than a comparable induction motor, but then swapping even one of the motors to permanent magnet would've increased rather than reduced 0-60 times.

It's always "more complicated than that".

For a start, there's no such thing as one motor type more efficient than another - efficiency varies with speed, load and other factors, so you have two curves to compare (not to mention the curves being different for motors of the same type but different size - and since power is also not constant you can't say "the same size"). In the traditional permanent-magnet BLDC vs induction comparison, the usual conclusion is that for two comparable-size machines BLDC is more efficient at it's best operating point, while the induction has a flatter curve and may beat the BLDC at the extremes. This is partly why Tesla's original choice of Induction over BLDC (which most competitors used at the time) wasn't a significant efficiency loss.

However, the world has moved on and the Model 3's motor, while incorporating permanent magnets, is not a BLDC. It's a switched reluctance machine (which doesn't in principle need permanent magnets), enhanced by the addition of permanent magnets apparently to improve its torque smoothness. Since we are now talking of more complex designs which have been highly optimised for a particular job, it's not easy to make generalisations like I did in the last paragraph, and detailed info about Tesla's motors is not public.

Another factor that might be relevant is that in general it's easier to make an induction machine 'disappear' when not needed (simply switch off all the power and it adds no drag apart from the mechanical losses in the bearings), while a permanent magnet machine is more likely to add drag when not in use. The new Model S supposedly uses its front motor for cruise and enables the rear motor only when needed for extra power.

 

[WannabeOwner]

while a permanent magnet machine is more likely to add drag when not in use

So knocking it into N for hypermiling will be less efficient?

 

[LukeT]

It's always "more complicated than that".

For a start, there's no such thing as one motor type more efficient than another - efficiency varies with speed, load and other factors, so you have two curves to compare (not to mention the curves being different for motors of the same type but different size - and since power is also not constant you can't say "the same size"). In the traditional permanent-magnet BLDC vs induction comparison, the usual conclusion is that for two comparable-size machines BLDC is more efficient at it's best operating point, while the induction has a flatter curve and may beat the BLDC at the extremes. This is partly why Tesla's original choice of Induction over BLDC (which most competitors used at the time) wasn't a significant efficiency loss.

However, the world has moved on and the Model 3's motor, while incorporating permanent magnets, is not a BLDC. It's a switched reluctance machine (which doesn't in principle need permanent magnets), enhanced by the addition of permanent magnets apparently to improve its torque smoothness. Since we are now talking of more complex designs which have been highly optimised for a particular job, it's not easy to make generalisations like I did in the last paragraph, and detailed info about Tesla's motors is not public.

Another factor that might be relevant is that in general it's easier to make an induction machine 'disappear' when not needed (simply switch off all the power and it adds no drag apart from the mechanical losses in the bearings), while a permanent magnet machine is more likely to add drag when not in use. The new Model S supposedly uses its front motor for cruise and enables the rear motor only when needed for extra power.

A sensible compromise then. Thanks for that explanation, which makes perfect sense.

 

[LukeT]

So knocking it into N for hypermiling will be less efficient?

I'd have thought only very marginally, since the front motor is small compared with the rear and only needs enough current to keep it spinning at the current speed without any acceleration load.

Do people actively do this in EVs like you can in ICEs? In an ICE you're overcoming the force required to keep a whole lot more steel spinning, pressures rising and friction etc. I'm not an owner (yet) but I'd have thought the effect so minimal as to have no noticable effect on the numbers and didn't assume it was even possible.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Do people actively do this in EVs like you can in ICEs?

Dunno, but I do (in both EV and [manual] ICE).

You can feather throttle in Tesla, such that it is at an apparent ZERO position, but to do that you need to look at dashboard ... I assume, maybe wrongly, that Neutral is better than feathered-zero ... certainly it is better in terms of looking out of the windscreen rather than at the dashboard

On a downslope I knock into Neutral, glide, probably pick up speed, and then run the excess speed off on the flat or uphill and I figure that is better than using ANY Regen (let's assume 70% efficient regen-to-battery-and-back-to-propulsion)

However, I have no AP in N, and I may well? not have AEB etc. either ... so that alone might be a good reason not to do it.

 

[pjuk]

In the Audi A3 e-tron removing your foot from the accelerator pedal basically puts you into neutral and there is no regen or engine braking. Pressing the brake pedal will slow you down using regen and will only engage the regular brakes if you brake hard (or if the battery is fully topped up). Ever since I’ve started driving an EV I’ve always used the cars momentum as best I can to glide up to lights, traffic, go downhill etc... to ensure maximum efficiency. IIRC the Tesla (from my test drive) had several modes of regen (heavy and light) when you removed your foot from the pedal - does anyone know if you can disable regen completely with only regen activated using the brake pedal?

 

[DJP31]

does anyone know if you can disable regen completely with only regen activated using the brake pedal?

No you can’t. The settings are low and standard. The car will reduce to about 7mph and the mechanical brake is required to come to a complete stop.

 

[arg]

Also, Tesla has no regen on the brake pedal - it's purely the friction brake. All motor control (regen or drive) is through the accelerator pedal.