@MidlifeCrisis's son. Nice one.
To your father: I confirmed the same day that I ordered (ok, there was a 10 minutes gap). Seems to me that they are also looking at shipment and transport, so they can fill a truck with a destination in mind (state or a region), and when it's full they assign the VIN...after of course building inventory early in the quarter to serve overseas market so it counts towards the same quarter financial results. That's life (and life is cruel). So I'll guess I'll have to enjoy my Prius few more weeks (yes, I have that too, and probably a form of midlife crisis as well, but at least I wasn't smoked by a Nissan Leaf ;-)
At least it's so far away that impatience is not strong enough to loose sleep, in you case I'm not so sure !!!
Thanks @2virgule5! My son was grateful for the feedback on his art, and I got a kick out of your good memory around why I was "driven" to upgrade from a Prius to a Tesla! If at all possible, I will have a rematch with that Leaf driver! Maybe I'll make it a 91 mile drag race, just to rub it in!
BTW, since your order date was actually two weeks behind my order date, I really do believe the order date has much more to do with your VIN # and production order than your confirm date, with the exception of the Europeans and delayed order folks, whose overall delivery order is much less a function of order or confirm date, and more a function of when they ordered it in the quarterly revenue cycle and where they fall in the shipping cycle.
Also, I emailed my DS Saturday to ask for a quick update, and he said my car should go into production early this coming week and his highest VIN he's delivered is in the high 28000s. As far as he knows, I'm still good for an 11-Feb delivery, so 2 weeks from Tuesday, if nothing happens to make it later (or, fingers crossed, earlier). I would be shocked if I don't wind up taking that whole day off work to drive the car around! It would take a ton of discipline to be productive on the day I pick up the new car!
I am now going to order a few more crucial accessories, like all-weather floor mats and, possibly, a Tesla car cover, though I may wait to order the cover a little later, because I have no plans any time soon to have to leave the car outside for more than a day or to park it somewhere where it might need extra protection. I did notice the Tesla-branded floor and cargo mats are actually cheaper than the WeatherTech ones, which surprised me. However, Tesla is currently sold out of the inside floor mats, so I think I'll order just the cargo mats (frunk, trunk and rear cargo footwell) now, and I may get a set of rubber floormats at walmart to protect the carpet until Tesla store gets some more floor mats in stock.