advance of CAN bus data on the Plaid, I'll be looking at the EPA data from the newer cars and comparing them to the refresh LR.
Definitely EPA data will tell everything, once it is available.
managed to reduce weight,
Do we know this? I imagine there is a lot of learning from the past, various tweaks. I guess we will see about the actual cell itself (lots of those so if they somehow found a way to reduce any weight that would help.
increase range and efficiency
I am sure the carbon-sleeve rotor motors have managed to squeeze out tiny additional savings, tweaks to electronics of drive inverter as well. Higher voltage helps since you can either run thinner wires with the same loss or the same thickness with less loss. Aero is slightly better. Heat pump may fundamentally allow slightly better efficiency during the standard city/hwy tests (though I would expect minimal help)
Beyond that there are the details of the EPA test - specifically the scalar factor used, which is likely going to be a couple % higher due to better cold and hot cycle performance, due to the heat pump’s ability to save energy.
This can add an extra 10 or more miles to the EPA range even if the city and highway test results don’t change at all.
I’ve heard that in the past wiring was a limiting factor for Supercharging speeds. So that would be one place relatively easy to improve. The voltage helps with this too (higher voltage lower current for the same speed).
by just chemistry in the 18650 form
Yeah, wonder whether the recent 2170 density improvement was also moved to the 18650. Along with tweaks allowing higher charging and discharging rates. That would also allow them to use 5% fewer cells. So maybe if it really is just 103kWh, it might be just 120s66p.
I guess I still expect peak Supercharging rates could be as high as 330kW, but not sure any Superchargers are capable of that at the moment. Maybe the hardware anticipated this moment, though.
Baseline highest rate per capacity is Model 3 250kW for 78kWh pack, I guess:
At any SOC, new pack is 25% higher voltage.
With 20% higher voltage, the parallel capacity of the pack is going to be about 5.6% higher than Model 3.
Product is just 1.25*1.056 = 1.32 (which is of course just the ratio of the 103kWh to 78kWh pack capacities).
So that gives 330kW. With nearly exactly the same wiring losses as at 250kW due to the higher voltage.
Would end up around 1300mi/hr (peak) at current constants. A little higher even, maybe, for the LR. The best!