Model S Refresh post March 31, 2016?

[Cyclone]

I think the M3 gets a smaller display but I think overall will have similar tech features as the MS.

I agree with you overall, but I honestly think the 17" will say as a Tesla "signature" piece for their ground-up cars (sorry Roadsters). I could be wrong, but part of also making the car simpler would be to not "reinvent" things and they have an established codebase using the 17" and the advantage of changing the UI when they feel they want/should. So I think the 17" will be in the 3 as well.

As for tech features, I would say most of the tech features of the S today would be in the 3 (door handles being a notable exception IMO). But other than safety related features (headlights maybe), I don't see any of the X-only stuff making their way down to the 3.

 

[Max*]

There has to be some way to justify the cost difference between the M3 vs. the MS. In my opinion, the base M3 will be similar to the base Audi A4 and BMW 328i with 0-60 in the 6s, probably RWD only. A fully optioned M3 would be similar to an S4 or BMW M3-4 with similar 0-60. I think the M3 gets a smaller display but I think overall will have similar tech features as the MS. The exterior may be more generic like the base Audi's/BMWs, with optional sport trim packages.

I'm anxiously awaiting delivery of my 85D. I don't think there will be a refresh anytime soon. There are still relatively few MS out there (I rarely see an MS here in the burbs of Portland, OR), and the styling is pretty classic and nowhere near outdated yet. I think Tesla has their hands full ramping X and 3 before running out of money to even think about a major S refresh for awhile.

I didn't say I want all the whiz-bang at $35k. I just said I want the whiz-bang. I'll wait to see what packages are offered to decide how to option it out (also will depend if I can convince the wife to take the S, and for the 3 to be mine... otherwise she'll likely be choosing different options from me)

 

[Cyclone]

Maybe it's just me, but none of those appeal to me. It's cool, but... I'm happy with the S's handles (mine actually work ). As I mentioned upthread, what I would really like is the adaptive headlights.

Yeah. We are on the same page. Those are more what I meant when I said "whiz-bang" features.

But boy oh boy do I love for my Toyota 4Runner's door handles on the S. They just work. They have work flawlessly for 9 years. I've been trapped unable to open my driver door twice (crawled out the passenger side), had all my handles worked on, and my rear driver handle is intermittently failing. And last night at dinner, one of my buddies in a new 85D had his passenger door randomly open at speed!

Then there is the picture today in Tesla Owners Worldwide where the handles in a wrecked S rear doors would extend and the driver panicked with his kids "trapped" in the back seat while he thought the car was on fire. He panicked, it was just the smell of the airbags deploying and he unaware of the manual release under the carpet for the rear door; but I can totally see Tesla using a simpler design that has far less potential to fail on the 3.

 

[Max*]

I would panic too, heh.

I would include the following into the whiz-bang category: AP, summon, auto parallel park (though it needs to work in tighter spaces), either the full glass roof of the S or the panaromic moonroof of the X, heated/cooled seats of the X, adaptive headlights, sleek look, decent 0-60, heated steering wheel and rear view mirrors, etc.

I'm sure the 3 will have a lot of it (I'm sure those will all be paid upgrades), as some of those are the staples of the Tesla brand.

 

[byan1232]

For those of you with this type of a thought, let me ask: Why would anyone purchase the Model S for so much more than just wait until the Model 3 comes out? To me, there has to be some sort of a carrot for those to move forward with the MS instead of waiting around (with the rest of the world) for the Model 3.

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I couldn't disagree more.

So I was actually thinking about waiting for the M3. After talking with folks at the tesla store and my DS, they all mentioned the model 3 is similar to a BMW 3 series or MB C class. The MS is the 7 series or the S class. However, I do not care too much regarding the class of the car. Its the features that I like about the MS.

1. A lot smaller
2. Less range per charge
3. Tech features limited

 

[HankLloydRight]

For those of you with this type of a thought, let me ask: Why would anyone purchase the Model S for so much more than just wait until the Model 3 comes out? To me, there has to be some sort of a carrot for those to move forward with the MS instead of waiting around (with the rest of the world) for the Model 3.

I couldn't disagree more.

Several reasons, but mostly Tesla has their hands full ramping up MX production and pushing the M3 to eventual launch. The MS is stable and people are happy with it. No need to "refresh" anything. Also, there are zero real indicators that a refresh is in the works, despite endless attempts to link any and every change, announcement or other minor event, to a MS refresh. Just because Elon Musk sat down to pee instead of standing DOESN'T mean a Model S refresh is imminent.

I'm willing to make a $10 bet to the charity of the winner's choice that there is no Model S "refresh" in 2016 -- "Refresh" meaning significant changes to the nosecone, body sheet metal, or interior that would warrant a launch party and/or press release and changes to the Design Studio. This does not include ventilated seats or LED headlights or auto-open MX doors (highly unlikely).

 

[freeewilly]

Not sure why people crave so much about adaptive headlights. I have them on my BMWs, I have to pay so much attention to verify it actually works. 99.99% of the time I don't even care.
Maybe it's important when you often drive in the mountain without street lights.

 

[WarpedOne]

It is not as much about refreshing the S as it is about using the same parts with the X. Lights, door handles, interior door panels, seats, center console, central computer, and many many small pieces that dont even have a name, only number.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla has a policy of continuous improvement, not big changes to their vehicle at model change over, or full refreshes on a 6 model year basis.

Sometimes they will change to better seats, motors, brakes, lighting, door handles, sunroofs battery packs, etc. They change things for the better when they are able.

Maybe someday they will change their front valance to a different styling, or to incorporate more auto driving technology, but to expect them to just make expensive changes to alter the looks of their cars, may not be realistic.

 

[roblab]

Tesla has a policy of continuous improvement, not big changes to their vehicle at model change over, or full refreshes on a 6 model year basis.

Sometimes they will change to better seats, motors, brakes, lighting, door handles, sunroofs battery packs, etc. They change things for the better when they are able.

Maybe someday they will change their front valance to a different styling, or to incorporate more auto driving technology, but to expect them to just make expensive changes to alter the looks of their cars, may not be realistic.

Absolutely! On average, 20 improvements per week. Why waste engineering on a front end that's not as gorgeous as what we have now? Silly people.

 

[Cyclone]

It is not as much about refreshing the S as it is about using the same parts with the X. Lights, door handles, interior door panels, seats, center console, central computer, and many many small pieces that dont even have a name, only number.

And of course there are varying definitions of "refresh" given their continuous improvement. Any of the ones you just listed coming to the S, I would not call a refresh. The closest would be using the DRL pattern of the X on the S and even then, it's just barely cutting muster to me. I suspect someday we may see the X nose on the S and other differences in the S' look, but I also don't expect it to happen anytime soon.

 

[chriSharek]

I've been saying this for a few weeks now that it's possible.

What's interesting is the lease incentives end if the car isn't DELIVERED by the end of the quarter. Meaning that if someone placed an order tomorrow, but got the car April 3rd they wouldn't be eligible for the current promotion. I'm not sure why it'd be delivery by end of month vs. order by end of month if they weren't planning on announcing something potentially that could cause people to cancel their orders.

That being said my order is confirmed and I've been told will have a mid-March delivery. This is an issue I wrestled with before confirming was the odds of a refresh. Either way, I think the odds are still low but definitely within the realm of possibility given the behavior.

I think this has something to do with the rates. The 1.99% for 72 months also ends 3/31/16. Again, I think due to the fact that the Feds are probably going to increase their rates, these will also go up maybe by about the same amount.

 

[cab]

or they're just corralling Q1 orders in

This. It is hard to believe that anything "magically" happens on 03/31 like "running out of 85kw battery packs, etc". I contacted a Tesla rep to ask about a car towards the end of December, and man, they were all over me with "deals" so long as I took delivery before year-end...really, just like every other car maker trying to make their end of quarter, and in this case "end of year", numbers. It's just Sales 101.

Indeed, I am counting on seeing the same pattern repeat toward the end of March. Of course the CPO situation is pretty interesting right now. Tesla seems to be keeping the prices high on their CPO cars which, in turn, keeps resale value up overall, which (per their recent earnings announcement) means the "residuals" are high for lease customers...this results in lower lease numbers, and ultimately, more customers "buying" ("leasing" in this case). The generally low number of Model Ses out there on the used market (compared to say BMW, Audi and Merc) also contributes to keeping values high of course.

 

[g211]

There is a lot of evidence that a refresh will happen:
1. End of RWD (other than 70);
2. Deposit for Other Europe was increased in January to 25 000 EUR to complete the order;
3. Delivery date for Model S in the whole Europe was MARCH until ~January 29th, on the very next day it jumped to JUNE (70, 70D) or LATE MAY (90D+);
4. New referral program requires taking delivery before April 15;
and so on.

The question is: Is it better to order Model S now, or wait ~1,5 months to make things clear? Well, it depends.

If you are prefering the RWD because of a bigger frunk (for a stroller) and want the rear-facing seats, don't wait, order now. It could easilly happen that they will remove the non-D version completely (they already did it except S70). They could remove the rear-facing seats options as well, as it is not very popular (at least in Europe) and currently they offer a 7-seats Model X (they don't want to cannibalize).

This is just my speculation without any real information from a trusted source. I hope both will not happen, this was just my excuse for finalizing my S70+RFS order today

 

[Cyclone]

There is a lot of evidence that a refresh will happen:
1. End of RWD (other than 70);
2. Deposit for Other Europe was increased in January to 25 000 EUR to complete the order;
3. Delivery date for Model S in the whole Europe was MARCH until ~January 29th, on the very next day it jumped to JUNE (70, 70D) or LATE MAY (90D+);
4. New referral program requires taking delivery before April 15;
and so on.

While I am NOT saying that a refresh won't happen (even though personally I'm not expecting it), every one of those is logistically explainable.
1 - Move away from a RWD platform (at least on Model S). Either through consolidating chassis builds or because of wear/tear & warranty expenses on RWD.
2 - Increased costs to make "Other Europe" (which isn't a primary focus of Tesla) less appealing. Didn't we recently even read threads that Tesla is cutting back on sending rangers outside their core markets and pushing for cars to be ferried to more "primary" markets even for warranty repairs?
3 - Shipping logistics have often causes Tesla to batch non-NA cars. They may just be setting much stricter schedules so they can plan production runs better.
4 - Each referral program has, thus far, been a "limited time offer".

Again, they very well could do a refresh -- I just wouldn't base the decision on these points.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Yeah, I don't see how any of those are evidence of a refresh.

Spy photos of new sheet metal or nosecone (or camouflaged Model Ss driving around) would be evidence of a refresh. These other things? Normal production or policy changes.

 

[Cyclone]

FYI...

Tesla actually called me yesterday and said they had good news for me and I could keep my original order (85D) with a June delivery. He said about 70% of the people he spoke to were happy to jump up to the 90D but the rest were a little upset that they were forced to take delivery March 31st or change your configuration.

Apparently they had a meeting and discussed this and are keeping everything the same if you choose to. They are striving to make the consumer happy which is good for everyone!

 

[marty2112]

Several reasons, but mostly Tesla has their hands full ramping up MX production and pushing the M3 to eventual launch. The MS is stable and people are happy with it. No need to "refresh" anything. Also, there are zero real indicators that a refresh is in the works, despite endless attempts to link any and every change, announcement or other minor event, to a MS refresh. Just because Elon Musk sat down to pee instead of standing DOESN'T mean a Model S refresh is imminent.

I'm willing to make a $10 bet to the charity of the winner's choice that there is no Model S "refresh" in 2016 -- "Refresh" meaning significant changes to the nosecone, body sheet metal, or interior that would warrant a launch party and/or press release and changes to the Design Studio. This does not include ventilated seats or LED headlights or auto-open MX doors (highly unlikely).

I'm game. My charity would be James Harden playing defense. Sorry. Big B-ball fan and my boys love watching the NBA.

I'm close to the mothership and have pushed my delivery out to May. Not that I know anything, but always like a friendly bet...

Marty

 

[MsElectric]

Not sure why people crave so much about adaptive headlights. I have them on my BMWs, I have to pay so much attention to verify it actually works. 99.99% of the time I don't even care.
Maybe it's important when you often drive in the mountain without street lights.

I consider it a must along with cornering lights. At least for me it greatly enhances visibility on winding dark roads as well as unlit and tight parking situations with low curbs.

 

[wdolson]

This is now the third thread on rumors about 2016 Model S facelifts that I know of.

Tesla doesn't have the engineering resources to devote much to the Model S for some time. A face lift this year is remote.

There is a story about Sigmund Freud that someone saw him smoking a cigar and asked him what it meant about his sexuality. Freud is reported to respond, "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar". Tesla was probably projecting how long their stock of 85 KWh batteries was going to hold out and they needed to come up with a drop dead date. Most cars that will be delivered by the end of March have already been ordered. March 31 was the best date to select for the drop dead date, it's the end of a quarter and was close to when the supply would be exhausted.

The opinions on whether the Model S should have the Model X nosecone or not is very split, probably pretty close to 50/50. People either love it or hate it. I don't believe the S will ever get the X nosecone, but if it does, it won't be any time soon. Personally I don't like the look of the Model X and hope the S doesn't get the X nose.