That’s a good point about supercharging. But in Montana, I pretty much have to use a supercharger to get anywhere that’s a couple hours away. I live in Bozeman and if I drive to Billings, which is 150 miles one way, I would cut it close to get back home doing a round trip without stopping to charge. Highway speeds in Montana are 80 MPH pretty much everywhere, plus it is very hilly, windy, and extremely cold (can be hot too during the summer). So assuming a 10% loss (I am expecting more than that) in range given weather/driving speed would force me to stop. I can’t imagine how much I’ll lose during extremely cold temps, but I suspect it will be a lot more than 30% of my range. In short, I do a lot of long trips, so it wouldn’t surprise me if I saved $1500-2000 a year with free supercharging.
To your point, I do expect the prices to drop some more. No way they are going to leave it as is and allow just the Yoke to push the order above $80k, which makes it ineligible for the tax credit. I think $70k would be the floor for the X. Any lower and you are infringing on market share for the other models. The S is already $5k cheaper than the X, so a $70k X puts the S in the mid $60k.
I disagree quite a bit about your cheap comment and how it compares to BMW. Tesla is a tech/software company that has way better margins and scaled in a sustainable way. Luxury brands depreciate BADLY unless you are talking more specialty vehicles with limited production. Again, the last 3 years are an anomaly for the car market. It’s not uncommon for six figure plus vehicles to lose $25k in a year. What Elon is doing is genius. He is undercutting the entire auto industry. No one has lowered car prices in 3 years until Ford recently did for the Lightning (again only because of Elon). Rivian and any other EV manufacturer cannot compete with Tesla’s prices and infrastructure. So he is 100% right to focus on market share and volume rather than margins as he is putting insane pressure on everybody. Not to mention, he has the best charging infrastructure in the world. As the economy worsens, other automakers will start to cut prices. People cannot continue to buy $100k F150s when homes prices have double in many markets and wages have not.