For everyone coming into this thread now, here are some things we "know" -- as in here are some common wisdom guesses we've made based on the limited data in these forums:
- Production does not proceed in VIN order *at all*.
- Cars that need to be shipped long distances are produced before close ones or factory pickups.
- Part shortages can cause significant delays, some of which happen after the car is "In Production". This is particularly apparent with 5 seat models.
- There are reporting disparities between MyTesla, automated email updates, and DS reports. None of those three are universally more accurate than the other two.
- Delivery Specialists either don't have insight into the status of production once a car is on the line or they are instructed to pretend they don't.
- The average/non delayed production time (in the factory, not shipping) seems to be about 5 days but given the imprecise reporting there's a lot of wiggle room there.