Model X Mule Sightings

[Svenssons]

Maybe whatever testing they needed to do out on the road is done.

Testing of forum activity after a Model X is spotted on the road? :wink:

 

[bonnie]

Testing of forum activity after a Model X is spotted on the road? :wink:

I'm not sure a test was required for that - fairly predictable, don't you think?

 

[aronth5]

Do you really think these guys have nothing better to do than driving around in a mule just to fool us?

The more mules I see, the more I get to that thought, that they are totally playing us. For a while it looked like the mules only were a little camouflaged. But the latest mules, with their terrible fitting around every door, body parts, etc., let think of it in another way: It do look like the mules drive around with old alpha body parts on a new platform and hidden interior, but the final design parts were left in the factory.

It's more then ever 50:50 and I'm staring to prepare to be shocked.

Yep.

Maybe whatever testing they needed to do out on the road is done.

Yes that must be it:smile:

 

[timf]

The release candidates were supposed to be built in March so by now the old mules are likely no longer relevant. Since the release candidates are essentially the finished product, Tesla is likely going to be more careful about keeping them under wraps until they are ready to do a reveal.

 

[mrdoubleb]

The release candidates were supposed to be built in March so by now the old mules are likely no longer relevant. Since the release candidates are essentially the finished product, Tesla is likely going to be more careful about keeping them under wraps until they are ready to do a reveal.

I start to believe they are more concerned about hurting Model S sales by revealing some amazing new feature or solution in X (surround cam, the debated see through A-pillar, no side or rear view mirrors, whatever else they came up with). Think about it: with 4 months to manufacturing, competitors could do little to copy these things in such a short time. But S sales could get hurt while people wait for the X features to migrate to the sedan or opt for an X instead. (And ordering an X at this time means a lost sale/delivery of an S in 2-3 months for an X delivery about a year from now).

 

[Matias]

If everything is ready, why are they then not selling the cars?

 

[NigelM]

If everything is ready, why are they then not selling the cars?

Because release candidate cars (RCs) still get tested and evaluated, and potentially fine tuned, before component production begins. We could still easily be 4-6 months away from first production.

 

[dirkhh]

So Tesla SAID that RCs would be built in March. Tesla also said in Sep 2013 that the CHAdeMO adapter would be coming "in the next couple of months".
We don't know if they have built RCs. We don't know where they are in the process of getting their tooling ready for production cars. We simply speculate based on Tesla statements and observations (or lack thereof).

 

[mrdoubleb]

If everything is ready, why are they then not selling the cars?

Think about dozens of suppliers too. You have to stick to the schedule this late in the game.

 

[Dutchie]

I really don't understand the delay. The Model X should have been a straightforward product as it is sitting on the same drivetrain as the Model S. The production of the Model X has been delayed so many times that it really makes me concerned. There must be one or more things that are really struggling with. My guess is the falcon doors, weather sensitive (rain could easily come in) and speed of opening/closing. It could be anything though.
has anyone looked at the timeline for development of the Model S compared to the Model X? I have a feeling that the Model X has taken longer now...

 

[gjunky]

I really don't understand the delay. The Model X should have been a straightforward product as it is sitting on the same drivetrain as the Model S. The production of the Model X has been delayed so many times that it really makes me concerned. There must be one or more things that are really struggling with. My guess is the falcon doors, weather sensitive (rain could easily come in) and speed of opening/closing. It could be anything though.
has anyone looked at the timeline for development of the Model S compared to the Model X? I have a feeling that the Model X has taken longer now...

I am sure that besides the drive train, there is nothing much the same in the Model X over the Model S. All the exterior and interior bits are different (they might be using some common components like the seats and the screen). Also, the suspension and tuning will most likely be different so even the "skateboard" is different.
Tesla has also been rather busy with the Model S and it's dual motor support and autopilot beginnings, creating a new P model and a new base model.

I am as inpatient with the wait on our future Model X as you are but calling the Model X straightforward is IMO a bit oversimplifying.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I really don't understand the delay. The Model X should have been a straightforward product as it is sitting on the same drivetrain as the Model S.

If Tesla had simply decided to create a tall wagon variant of the Model S, I would agree with you. That's actually what I thought they were going to build.

It looks like Tesla didn't go this route however.

Adding towing capability probably meant that Tesla had to start from scratch with body/frame and suspension design. Model S was never designed to handle towing. I remember Elon saying that engineering an SUV presented a lot of unexpected challenges not present in the engineering of a sedan/hatchback.

 

[timf]

The closer we get to the supposed release date without further announced delays, the less I believe there are any lingering design issues. All major structural components, such as the doors, have to have been frozen by now in order to allow tooling to be built for the production line. We'll never know for sure how much of an impact this had on the timing in the past 3 years. The success of Model S and needing to improve production efficiency certainly played as big a role in the delays as any engineering problems.

I suspect the initial 1 year delay was a result of focusing on Model S. The delays that have pushed it from late 2014 to Q3 2015 are more likely engineering related or a product of having an overly optimistic design and testing schedule. I don't think they started seriously working on the Model X production design until 2014, aside from platform-related elements such as AWD and autopilot which have already manifested themselves on Model S. The doors, seats, and other elements commonly quoted as the reasons for the delays were on the back burner and not finalized until much later.

I'm still a bit skeptical of the Model X release schedule given the limited amount of public testing we've seen. No matter how many computer simulations they run or poorly assembled mules they put on the road, there's no match to driving the finished product in the same manner as it will be used by customers. If they really keep to their word and don't reveal the final Model X or even drive it in public before "deliveries" begin, it means we're going to see a drawn out release schedule like Model S had. The first deliveries will be only to people close to the company and they will effectively be beta testers. They will then trickle out units over a few months to expand their test group until they give the go ahead for full production. From there deliveries will go much faster than Model S, but it may not happen until 2016.

 

[vigge50]

Didn't Elon Musk said in a conference call that the second road seat had caused as much delay as the falcon wing doors? What I have heard the back door and the second road seat is just some of the things in Model X that have never been seen in a car before. What other special functions there is in Model X I don't now but there is some according to what I have heard. We have just to wait to see what it is

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm still a bit skeptical of the Model X release schedule given the limited amount of public testing we've seen. No matter how many computer simulations they run or poorly assembled mules they put on the road, there's no match to driving the finished product in the same manner as it will be used by customers. If they really keep to their word and don't reveal the final Model X or even drive it in public before "deliveries" begin, it means we're going to see a drawn out release schedule like Model S had. The first deliveries will be only to people close to the company and they will effectively be beta testers. They will then trickle out units over a few months to expand their test group until they give the go ahead for full production. From there deliveries will go much faster than Model S, but it may not happen until 2016.

Tesla's Q1 '15 shareholder letter and earnings call should be in about 3 weeks, and I would expect the company to announce some updates on Model X at that time.

From the Q4 '14 letter and conference call, I remember that the Beta phase was nearly complete, and "Production Candidate" vehicles were supposed to be built in March.

There are 2 schools of thought on testing on public roads. First, I agree with you that there's no substitute for real-world testing, which can reveal edge use cases that won't be revealed in controlled laboratory conditions. Others here have pointed out though that lab tests can be repeated far more than real-world tests (running the powertrain 24/7 for example to test durability).

Elon has also stated that he wanted the X ramp up to be much faster than the S ramp up was back in 2012 and early 2013. This may be overly optimistic, as Tesla projections tend to be, but there's no way to know for sure. All we know is that the company is aiming for a quick ramp.

The only thing I am certain of is that this will eclipse Apple Watch in terms of consumer excitement and media hype as launch day approaches.

 

[Paul Carter]

I really don't understand the delay. The Model X should have been a straightforward product as it is sitting on the same drivetrain as the Model S. The production of the Model X has been delayed so many times that it really makes me concerned. There must be one or more things that are really struggling with. My guess is the falcon doors, weather sensitive (rain could easily come in) and speed of opening/closing. It could be anything though.
has anyone looked at the timeline for development of the Model S compared to the Model X? I have a feeling that the Model X has taken longer now...

I'm speculating the delay is twofold. (1) The doors took longer than expected (2) Whats been added made it take longer than expected. Two of those and you get to the two delays at least. I don't foresee a further one. That being said I don't expect to see the reveal until signature owners get to config and get delivery at the end of summer 2015 (September 23).

 

[NigelM]

I'm speculating the delay is twofold. (1) The doors took longer than expected (2) Whats been added made it take longer than expected. Two of those and you get to the two delays at least.

Possibly. I'm sure though you can also add in that Tesla a) Was production constrained until quite recently and b) It made little financial sense to launch a second car when demand outstripped supply for the first model.

 

[Paul Carter]

Possibly. I'm sure though you can also add in that Tesla a) Was production constrained until quite recently and b) It made little financial sense to launch a second car when demand outstripped supply for the first model.

Yes, very likely this was also a contributing factor. Who wants to add the fourth? Its all very reasonable. I'm having fun waiting driving an S and I'm still alive right now thankfully. Almost bit it today taking a brand spanking new Zero MC SR out for a spin (wasn't even the demo). OMG.... I have a Zero grin now too. I did a very very very squirrelly full throttle launch. Was fun though. I feel very alive right now.

 

[vandacca]

Yes, very likely this was also a contributing factor. Who wants to add the fourth? Its all very reasonable. I'm having fun waiting driving an S and I'm still alive right now thankfully. Almost bit it today taking a brand spanking new Zero MC SR out for a spin (wasn't even the demo). OMG.... I have a Zero grin now too. I did a very very very squirrelly full throttle launch. Was fun though. I feel very alive right now.

I'll add a fourth. How about range? From an engineering stand-point, range is a much more difficult problem to address than everything already mentioned, because its constrained by the laws of physics. I'm not saying that it was an issue for Tesla (because I have no information), but I would be surprised if it wasn't.

 

[ohmman]

I'm speculating the delay is twofold. (1) The doors took longer than expected (2) Whats been added made it take longer than expected. Two of those and you get to the two delays at least. I don't foresee a further one. That being said I don't expect to see the reveal until signature owners get to config and get delivery at the end of summer 2015 (September 23).

Be careful mentioning the doors as a source of delay or Bonnie may re-retire as moderator of this forum, thereby making you double moderator. I don't want to think about the logistics.