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Model X Mule Sightings
- Thread starter Paul Carter
- Start date
While I don't think this is the root cause of the delay (the falcon wings and the second row seem plausible reasons to me), I do believe it likely that what Tesla released in the P85D and Auto-pilot is what the first generation of Model X was supposed to have drivetrain and assistant-systems-wise (at least ever since Model X got delayed beyond 2013). But since it didn't launch yet, I have speculated Tesla decided to wait for the second-generation of Auto-pilot for Model X, hence waiting for the mass availability of nVidia's Drive PX with its numerous all-around cameras. This speculation is based on seeing what looks like Drive PX camera locations/lack of mirror on Model X mules, Drive PX release info and timing from nVidia and Elon Musk saying at Drive PX launch something along the lines of I'm excited to show what we've been working on together work the X.
This would allow them to launch the Model X with something Model S doesn't yet have and wow a little. Yet this also makes me a believer that if Model X launches with nVidia Drive PX, Model S will receive this update near the same time. I have also speculated that if Model X launches with a redesigned nose, it is possible a Model S facelift with a new nose would be included as well, based on the September 2014 "leakster" whose CAD drawing fot pulled by Tesla claiming Model X nose cone is gone, and on the head designer of Model S reportedly saying in an interview the one thing he'd change on the Model S being nose cone and the timing mentioned in Tesla's shareholder letter of November 2014, saying "Our focus will be on scaling up Model S production over the coming year, so no major platform changes to the hardware are planned in the near term" which alludes to a year of no major changes, ending around autumn 2015. It seems plausible.
Of course, if this is what happens, judging by the latest 70D change, it is also possible Tesla is waiting for Model X launch to launch the 70D's sister battery of higher capacity with Model X, which would also trickle down to Model S, perhaps autumn 2015.
I am also in the camp that believes Model X reveal will happen as near actual sales as possible, to minimize its effect on Model S sales, assuming it will come with new features that might make Model S buyers think twice about the current Model S. Yet I don't think Tesla will want to reveal all the bits and bobs on Model S before Model X (and rely on second-row and Falcons to wow solely), so they are juggling these concerns at the moment I'm sure and being extra secretive. Hence, that's why we need to i-spy and speculate even harder, to fill that gap for the prospective buyer.
This would allow them to launch the Model X with something Model S doesn't yet have and wow a little. Yet this also makes me a believer that if Model X launches with nVidia Drive PX, Model S will receive this update near the same time. I have also speculated that if Model X launches with a redesigned nose, it is possible a Model S facelift with a new nose would be included as well, based on the September 2014 "leakster" whose CAD drawing fot pulled by Tesla claiming Model X nose cone is gone, and on the head designer of Model S reportedly saying in an interview the one thing he'd change on the Model S being nose cone and the timing mentioned in Tesla's shareholder letter of November 2014, saying "Our focus will be on scaling up Model S production over the coming year, so no major platform changes to the hardware are planned in the near term" which alludes to a year of no major changes, ending around autumn 2015. It seems plausible.
Of course, if this is what happens, judging by the latest 70D change, it is also possible Tesla is waiting for Model X launch to launch the 70D's sister battery of higher capacity with Model X, which would also trickle down to Model S, perhaps autumn 2015.
I am also in the camp that believes Model X reveal will happen as near actual sales as possible, to minimize its effect on Model S sales, assuming it will come with new features that might make Model S buyers think twice about the current Model S. Yet I don't think Tesla will want to reveal all the bits and bobs on Model S before Model X (and rely on second-row and Falcons to wow solely), so they are juggling these concerns at the moment I'm sure and being extra secretive. Hence, that's why we need to i-spy and speculate even harder, to fill that gap for the prospective buyer.
I also agree that it makes no business sense for Tesla to pre-announce the production Model-X and potentially cannibalize Model-S sales pre-maturely. It could potentially stall Model-S sales before they even have a Model-X available for purchase. Many tech companies have made this mistake and it can severely affect their bottom-line.
I agree for close-up mules, they are not betas or release candidates in any kind of final form (too hacked up), though who knows exactly what spun around those docks and filmed at low resolution from distance.
I have to add, this doesn't mean what we have seen couldn't offer relevant clues as to what will eventually launch. There may well be a lot of pointers there. The question is, did we pick up the right ones and did we interpret them correctly or not.
Also, as long as being production constrained TM can afford having its major product line releases being more equally distributed over the years, allowing in future homogenous capacity use for development teams, testing, production ramp up and production (compare Apple iPad/iPhone/...). As well as it avoids having the product lines aging and going towards end of life all synchronous. With MS launch 2012, MM 2015, M3 2017 there are convenient offsets.
Should be much more affordable:
For those excited about the idea of their own self-driving car, don’t worry about that $10,000 price tag. If any automaker decides to Drive PX, or a derivative of its technology, in vehicles made for consumers, Shapiro says, “the per car amount will be very affordable.”
http://www.wired.com/2015/03/nvidias-powerful-new-computer-helps-teach-cars-drive/
I have thought of something no one else ever has in the history of discussing the Model X.
What if it snows, how will the falcon wing doors react? I reckon Tesla has just realised this problem. This is why the model x is delayed. They have to wait till next winter to test the falcon wing doors in the snow.
What if it snows, how will the falcon wing doors react? I reckon Tesla has just realised this problem. This is why the model x is delayed. They have to wait till next winter to test the falcon wing doors in the snow.
Eric96k, that was just mean!
Wasn't trying to me mean....but all kidding aside....there were things I saw....the staff was obviously tight lipped.
They also had no Model X's out at all...though I could see some side panel's that had come off the stamping line. There was also a significant area that was wrapped up and off limits, they were clearly doing a lot of line construction....
The exterior wood paneling is also an issue, I heard. That's why all the mis-aligned body panels, I reckon. Of course in California it never rains so I hope Tesla tests the paneling to make sure it doesn't warp when wet.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Well, alignment of the wood panels is one issue. But matching patterns so it looks like it all came from one piece? That's not easy. No, not at all.
FYI, @anxietyranger, @bonnie nailed it: The Nvidia partnership is for image analysis to find matching grains on exterior wood paneling. Now *That's* some GPU and SIMD processing load.
I'm on the wood paneling GPU bandwagon for sure. I'd go as far as labelling it a fact.
Now I need to start two new threads for it (one for the wood paneling and another for the GPU part), here such factual analysis runs the risk of being overwhelmed by idle chitchat, funny pictures and mere speculation.
Nubo
Test Mule
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Correct. I think Paul has set up the subforum for you that we discussedI'm on the wood paneling GPU bandwagon for sure. I'd go as far as labelling it a fact.
Now I need to start two new threads for it (one for the wood paneling and another for the GPU part), here such factual analysis runs the risk of being overwhelmed by idle chitchat, funny pictures and mere speculation.
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